Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Let's get the bad-news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It's commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous year's statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically this game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason.
The matchups ranks provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2023 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (vs. Los Angeles Rams). The third-worst defense against quarterbacks last season (18.9 fantasy points per game) and the worst over its final seven weeks (21.9), the Rams could further struggle with 2023 defensive coordinator Raheem Morris now in Atlanta and Aaron Donald, a key part of their pass rush, retired. Goff was a quintessential matchups quarterback last season, with five of his 20-point performances coming against defenses that ranked bottom-15 against the position. Additionally, Lions-Rams has the highest over/under for the week (50.5), and figures to be a pass-heavy affair.
Others to like: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Washington Commanders); Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars).
Matchup to avoid: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (at Cleveland Browns). The Browns might well be this year's toughest pass defense, after finishing 2023 fourth-best against opposing quarterbacks (minus-2.5 Adjusted FPA). Last season, they ranked second in pass rush win rate (54.8%) and first in completion rate allowed (57.4%), and they made it darned near impossible for opposing quarterbacks to complete deep passes, thanks in large part to the game's best pass rusher in Myles Garrett and an elite cornerback in Denzel Ward. Prescott might need to attempt 40-plus passes in order to approach a top-eight score for the week.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England Patriots). It's a great matchup from which to garner takeaways about the Bengals' depth chart, as they're the most-favored Week 1 team (giving 8.5 points), leading to a higher likelihood of rushing plays, and will be facing a Patriots defense that was middling against running backs in 2023 (minus-1.6 Adjusted FPA, 13th). Moss is listed as the team's RB1 for the opening week, and between that, his past success in short-yardage situations -- he converted 80% of his chances within one yards of a first down with a league-best 6.8 yards per play average last year -- and Chase Brown's Week 1 depth chart listing as the Bengals' primary kickoff return man, Moss figures to see a heavy, fantasy-relevant workload.
Others to like: James Cook, Buffalo Bills (vs. Arizona Cardinals); Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (at New York Giants).
Matchup to avoid: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Baltimore Ravens). Samaje Perine's arrival in Kansas City, coupled with reports that the Chiefs pursued Josh Jacobs in free agency, has suddenly cast doubts upon Pacheco's ability to meet his second-round price tag. While Perine's role will probably be as more of a fill-in for the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire on passing downs, Perine's presence, and more importantly this matchup, heightens worries with Pacheco in the Thursday opener. The Ravens were the fourth-toughest defense against running backs in 2023, and they were especially stingy in scoring position, posting a league-best 81.0% defensive success rate on goal-to-go rushing plays.
Sunday RB to avoid: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Atlanta Falcons).
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Keon Coleman, Bills (vs. Cardinals). The Bills' receiver room is notably different this season, with rookie Coleman joining Curtis Samuel as additions to replace Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. While the target dispersal between Coleman, Samuel and Khalil Shakir is unclear entering Week 1, Coleman's presence as a perimeter receiver puts him in an advantageous spot, especially considering the Cardinals afforded perimeter wide receivers more than two PPR fantasy points per target, and 2.32 to the position overall, which was second-most in the league. The Cardinals did little to address that roster shortcoming, as their big addition, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, graded below-average in coverage last year.
Others to like: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers (vs. Commanders); Malik Nabers, Giants (vs. Vikings).
Matchup to avoid: Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (vs. New York Jets). The Jets were the stingiest defense against wide receivers last season, with only 11 scoring in double-digits against them, four fewer than the next-closest team surrendered. They return all three first-string cornerbacks, Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II, practically guaranteeing another season of causing headaches for opposing wideouts. Aiyuk, and to a larger extent the 49ers' passing game, should take more of a back seat to Christian McCaffrey and the running game in this one. Note, too, that Aiyuk averaged 12.9 PPR fantasy points and 7.7 targets against the eight toughest defenses against the position in 2023.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers (at Philadelphia Eagles). Jordan Love did an outstanding job of spreading the ball around among his many capable receivers during his breakthrough 2023, and with there still being no clear-cut No. 1 target, there's plenty of opportunity in the team's receiver room. Musgrave, who caught a 38-yard touchdown pass in the team's wild-card round win against the Cowboys, is one such candidate. He should benefit from an advantageous matchup against the Eagles, who were 10th-worst against the position and saw eight different tight ends score in double-digits last season, and enter 2024 with below-average linebacker and safety corps.
Matchup to avoid: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (at Browns). The Browns were the third-toughest defense against tight ends last season, in which only four individuals scored even as much as eight PPR fantasy points against them. They return a similarly talented defensive roster this season, with top-10 linebacker (led by Pro Bowler Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah), safety and cornerback units, making this one of the position's few matchups to flat-out avoid. Ferguson could see a handful of targets on shorter routes, but he's unlikely to deliver in terms of big plays or touchdowns.