Throughout the NFL regular season, we'll meet here on Thursdays to break down the film from a fantasy football perspective. I'm looking for trends and tendencies on both side of the ball to give fantasy managers a jump when they set their weekly lineups. Schemes matter. So does offensive deployment in weekly matchups. And remember, the game tape always tells us a story.
This week, I'm focused on a couple of receivers, one who will have opportunities to stretch the field in his matchup, and another who can use his dynamic skill set to work multiple levels of the field. There's also a running back climbing the ranks after a strong Week 9 game, plus we'll look at three players to question and three more to monitor this weekend.
All references to fantasy scoring are for PPR leagues unless otherwise noted.
Players to upgrade in Week 10
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
The volume is still up for Olave, as he has seen at least eight targets in each of his past four games, with an average of 10.5 per game during that stretch. However, he has recorded only one explosive-play reception (20 yards or more) in his past six games. I think that changes this week versus a Vikings defense that leads the league with a blitz rate of 51.4%. More opportunities here for Derek Carr to throw one-on-ones, which opens the door for Olave to stretch the field on the perimeter or to work away from coverage on in-breakers and crossers. That's why I have Olave as a fringe WR1 this week.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
Dotson has been rolling the past two weeks, catching 12 of 18 targets for 177 yards, with a touchdown in each game. We're seeing his dynamic ability on the tape. He's able to separate from man coverage, find the zone windows and work the third level from slot alignments. Plus, this Washington offense is leaning on the pass game, with quarterback Sam Howell attempting 40 or more throws in five of his past six games. I'll take Dotson this week as an upside WR3 against Seattle.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
It's easy to elevate Jones this week after he posted 17.9 fantasy points on 24 touches against the Rams this past Sunday, both season highs. Jones looked quick and decisive with the ball in his hands, too. However, I like Jones even more this week against Pittsburgh due to his ability to produce as a receiving target. Jones caught three screen passes for 24 yards versus the Rams, and the Packers will have to counter the Steelers' pass rush, using Jones on traditional screens plus the swing routes that also get him on the perimeter. He's a high-end RB2 in my rankings.
Players I have questions about in Week 10
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The tape is really good on Lawrence, given his ability to move and throw from muddy pockets. He can create outside of structure, too. However, we aren't seeing the results in fantasy, as Lawrence has posted 16 or more points in only three games this season, with multiple touchdown throws in only two. And I have concerns about this Jacksonville offensive line versus the San Francisco pass rush on Sunday. The 49ers are allowing just 13.5 PPG to quarterbacks this season, and they will use schemed fronts to disrupt the pocket. You can still start Lawrence in 12-team leagues, but you need to manage expectations given the matchup.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
After posting back-to-back games of fewer than 10 fantasy points, Flowers gets a tough matchup against a Cleveland defense that features physical cover corners and range at the second level. In the first meeting of the season back in Week 3, Flowers caught 3 of 4 targets for 56 yards. I usually bet on Flowers given his offensive deployment in the Baltimore offense. And I roster him in multiple leagues. But with this matchup, I see Flowers as only a WR3.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
The Bills are still a pass-first team with Josh Allen, and Cook has produced double-digit fantasy points just once in his past five games. Plus, he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown since Week 4. Yes, Cook should still see 12 to 15 touches on Monday, and he gets a positive matchup versus the Broncos. But with the lack of scoring upside, in an offense that is really still trying to find its identity from a scheme perspective, I dropped Cook down to the lower-tier-RB2 range this week.
Players to monitor in Week 10
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals
With quarterback Kyler Murray back in the mix for the Cards this week, I want to see if the receiving volume spikes a bit for Moore. He's yet to post more than 35 yards receiving in a single game this season, but we know he has the catch-and-run ability to produce as an underneath/middle-of-the-field target for Murray.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
Gibson has caught five passes in each of his past two games, and he just scored 12.6 points in the Week 9 win over the Patriots. With the throwing volume up for Howell, Gibson could be a solid streaming option soon given his receiving traits out of the backfield.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings
With Cam Akers (Achilles) now down for the season, Chandler jumps into the No. 2 role behind Alexander Mattison. Chandler has only 13 touches on the season, but let's see how many snaps he plays this week versus the Saints. There's potential here for Chandler to have some deeper-league streaming value moving forward.