Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adj. FPA, or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how many points the defense allows compared with players' weekly averages. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). A trio of top-five quarterbacks in fantasy points (Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa) are on their bye weeks, pushing many managers to the free agent list for a one-week sub. Levis, in spite of his quiet Week 9, stands out thanks to his favorable matchup against a reeling Buccaneers defense. This defense has afforded five more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than any other team over the past five weeks, including surrendering a combined 93.28 to Jared Goff (Week 6), Josh Allen (Week 8) and C.J. Stroud (Week 9) during that time.
Others to like: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Washington Commanders); Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Atlanta Falcons).
Matchup to avoid: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (at Baltimore Ravens). His return from a shoulder injury in Week 9 was encouraging, as he totaled 18.96 fantasy points on 30 passing and three rushing attempts, although it's important to remind everyone that Arizona, his opponent, represented one of the position's most favorable matchups. This week presents a stiffer test, against a Ravens defense that has held the position to the fewest fantasy points per game (10.4), Adjusted FPA (minus-4.1) and points per passing attempt (0.22). Only two quarterbacks have scored 15-plus points against the Ravens, tied for the league's fewest (and they have played one more game than the Browns or Green Bay Packers have).
Running backs
Matchups highlight: James Cook, Buffalo Bills (vs. Denver Broncos). He's scarcely a factor at the goal line, tied for the fourth-fewest goal-line carries (within 1 yard of the end zone) among running backs with at least 80 total rushing attempts, as Latavius Murray, Damien Harris and Josh Allen have dominated those opportunities. Still, Cook has been plenty productive in the open field, scoring the eighth-most PPR fantasy points in those scenarios, and this is a great matchup for those circumstances. Besides their affording the position the most points per rushing attempt for the season (0.82), the Broncos have also allowed the most 20-yard runs (10).
Others to like: Khalil Herbert/D'Onta Foreman, Chicago Bears (vs. Carolina Panthers); Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (vs. Indianapolis Colts).
Matchup to avoid: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (at Buccaneers). While the Buccaneers' pass defense has struggled mightily of late, their run defense has been one of the league's best all year. They're one of six teams to have allowed only one running back to reach 15 PPR fantasy points against them, and their 0.37 points per rushing attempt afforded the position is second-fewest. Henry's 2023 has fallen firmly into a matchups-driven pattern, as in his three games against defenses that rank among the eight best in Adjusted FPA (New Orleans Saints, Week 1; Browns, Week 3; and Falcons, Week 8), he averaged just 10.7 points.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (vs. Commanders). All three Seattle receivers stand out in what's arguably this season's most favorable matchup at the position, but DK Metcalf is the most rostered and started of the three, so let's focus instead on No. 2 and 3 options Lockett and Smith-Njigba. They have averaged seven and six targets respectively the past three weeks, plenty to make some noise against a Commanders defense that has seen multiple receivers score double-digit PPR fantasy points against it in five of nine games. Washington's 2.07 points per target afforded to the position for the season is also the most in the league.
Others to like: DeAndre Hopkins, Titans (at Buccaneers); Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. San Francisco 49ers).
Matchup to avoid: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. New York Jets). It's hard to believe that a top-four-selected wide receiver from the preseason, not to mention a player top-eight positionally rostered, lands on this side of the ledger, but that's where we're at. Adams has averaged 7.1 PPR fantasy points over the past five weeks, which ranks 63rd among wide receivers (minimum three games played), and seven targets. The opposing Jets, meanwhile, have been the league's toughest defense against wide receivers, their 22.1 PPR fantasy points per game and minus-12.5 adjusted FPA both the best by a sizable margin. Adams should rebound at some point, particularly under a new coaching staff, but this isn't the week it's likely to happen.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans (at Cincinnati Bengals). He has become a force for the Texans when in scoring position. His eight end zone targets tops the position; his 10 red-zone targets is tied for fourth-most; and his 38.5% target rate per route run in the red zone is third-best. Schultz is also coming off a game in which he had career bests in targets (11), catches (10) and receiving yards (130), so this is a prime time to buy in. His top-five positional appeal for Week 10 is only strengthened by a matchup with the Bengals, who have afforded tight ends the second-most catches (8) and third-most touchdowns (4) in red zone situations.
Matchup to avoid: Cole Kmet, Bears (versus Panthers). He's likely to play despite exiting his 23.5 PPR fantasy-point Week 9 with a knee injury, but with the game on the short week and the matchup itself unfavorable, Kmet can't make a realistic top-10 positional claim. The Panthers have been one of the league's toughest against tight ends, with Sam LaPorta (19.7 points, Week 5) the only one to exceed nine points against them, and bear in mind that T.J. Hockenson (Week 4) and Schultz (Week 8) were included among those quiet days, meaning the competition has been reasonably fierce.