Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
The Matchups Map provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, rating all 32 opposing defenses in terms of how favorable the matchup is for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the most recent five weeks. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (adj. FPA), reflects how many points the defense allows compared to players' weekly averages. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. And remember, teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals). Along with the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts, the Cardinals are one of three defenses that shape up as top-eight favorable matchups against both quarterbacks and running backs. Kenneth Walker III is therefore a locked-in, top-five running back play, but Smith is a top-10 positional play you might not realize is one. The Cardinals have struggled mightily against perimeter receivers, surrendering the third-most passing yards and sixth-most touchdowns passes to them since Week 4, and the Seahawks' receiving strength is in perimeter targets DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Others to like: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Broncos); Joshua Dobbs, Cardinals (at Seahawks).
Matchup to avoid: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (vs. San Francisco 49ers). Justin Jefferson's absence had a noticeably adverse impact on the Vikings' offense in Week 6, as Cousins was sacked twice, fumbled twice, was plagued by three drops by his receivers and averaged his shortest average depth of target since Week 12 of last season. It was a distressing performance in advance of this challenging Monday night assignment -- and one that characterized a Jefferson-less Cousins as more matchups than every-week fantasy play. These 49ers, by the way, have afforded quarterbacks the fewest fantasy points per pass attempt this season.
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Running backs
Matchups highlight: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (at Chicago Bears). A fantasy known commodity, rostered in 99.6% of ESPN leagues while ranking third among running backs in both snap share (79%) and total touches (132), Jacobs has seen a severe downturn in efficiency. Per Next Gen Stats, all of Jacobs' average speed, average yards before and after contact per rush and rushing yards over expectation rate career worsts. The Bears, a defense that has already allowed four time-share running backs to score in double digits, represent a bounce-back -- but, more importantly, a must-rebound -- opportunity to restore his managers' faith.
Others to like: Aaron Jones, Packers (at Broncos); Javonte Williams, Broncos (vs. Packers).
Matchup to avoid: Zack Moss, Colts (vs. Cleveland Browns). After handling the vast majority of the Colts' backfield work in Jonathan Taylor's 2023 debut, Moss slipped into a near-even split last week. Moss' 49% snap share, 13 total touches and seven carries were right in line with Taylor's 43%, 13 and eight, and Taylor's promising speed metrics -- he had the team's two fastest clocked runs, per Next Gen Stats -- suggest he's rapidly recapturing lead-back status. The Browns, meanwhile, are one of four defenses to have not afforded any running back a 15-point PPR fantasy day.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants (vs. Washington Commanders). The Giants are a tough passing game from which to draw fantasy plays, as they don't have a single wide receiver ranked among the position's top 60 or tight end in the top 10 in PPR fantasy points. Nevertheless, in a week with six teams on bye, dig deep we must. Robinson, with his high catch rate and 14.2-point Week 6, will be the more popular sleeper, but Hyatt has a team-leading 18.1-yard average depth of target and plays on the perimeter, two things that match up excellently against the Commanders. This defense has allowed 2.5 points per target to the position, second most in the league, as well as a league-leading 520 yards and six touchdowns on throws at least 20 yards downfield.
Others to like: Marquise Brown, Cardinals (at Seahawks); Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Detroit Lions).
Matchup to avoid: George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Los Angeles Rams). Diontae Johnson's impending return -- he was designated to return from injured reserve, giving the team 21 days to activate him -- will cut into Pickens' 28% target share he has had over the Steelers' past four games, but even if Johnson's return waits another week, this is a suboptimal matchup for the second-year receiver. The Rams have afforded wide receivers the second-fewest PPR fantasy points per target this season, despite their having already faced six of the top 16 wide receivers picked on average in the preseason.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (at Rams). Wide receivers have struggled mightily against the Rams thus far, but tight ends have considered it an advantageous matchup. The Rams have afforded the position the fifth-most PPR fantasy points per target, largely due to their linebackers' struggles defending the tight end. Tight ends have scored the second-most total points and sixth-largest percentage of their points when a linebacker was the nearest defender (per Next Gen Stats). Freiermuth, expected back from a hamstring injury, should capitalize.
Matchup to avoid: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). The Buccaneers have faced one of the most challenging tight end schedules thus far, facing four of the position's top 10 to date in PPR fantasy points in their five games, yet they have held them nicely in check. Their minus-3.4 adjusted FPA for the season are the season's fewest, and their 1.12 points per target allowed ranks third best. Pitts is riding a hot streak, fueled by increased usage running his routes out of the slot, but this might be one of his quieter days.