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Fantasy football Shadow Report: Big day for Rams receivers?

Cooper Kupp (L) and Puka Nacua (R) of the Los Angeles Rams could be in line for big games against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjusts to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.

Projected Shadow Matchups

Packers' Christian Watson vs. Broncos' Pat Surtain II (Shadow)

I wouldn't call this one a sure thing considering Watson's small body of work this season, but he did enough to reestablish himself as Green Bay's No. 1 wide receiver in Week 5 that I believe Surtain will shadow him on the perimeter this week. That's how the star corner was deployed against Davante Adams in Week 1, Tyreek Hill in Week 3, DJ Moore in Week 4, Garrett Wilson in Week 5 and Travis Kelce last week. Adams had a relatively quiet game (6-66-0 on nine targets) and, while Hill exploded for a 9-157-1 line on 11 targets, only 3-45-0 came on four targets against Surtain. Moore also had a big game (8-131-1 on nine targets) and did some of that damage against Surtain (4-76-0 on five targets). Wilson posted a 3-54-0 line on seven targets. Watson has aligned on the perimeter on 81% of his 43 routes this season, so if Surtain shadows, it will be for a majority of the game.

Takeaway: Watson will escape Surtain's coverage here or there, but he will be aligned against one of the league's best defenders often enough that he should be downgraded a bit. Romeo Doubs, meanwhile, can be upgraded against Damarri Mathis.

Buccaneers' Mike Evans vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell (Shadow)

Same as with Surtain, this one is not a sure thing, as Terrell has shadowed only once this season. Some of that was a product of the opposition (e.g., Carolina, Green Bay and Detroit didn't have a clear, established No. 1 perimeter receiver at the time), but he also didn't travel with the likes of Nico Collins or Terry McLaurin. Terrell's lone shadow came against Calvin Ridley in Week 4. He was on Ridley for 23 of his 26 routes and limited Jacksonville's top receiver to a 2-38-1 receiving line on two targets in the game. The reason I am, in fact, projecting a shadow here is because Terrell traveled with Evans when these teams played in Week 5 last season. Terrell aligned against Evans on 32 of his 42 routes, including 26 of 30 on the perimeter and six of 12 in the slot. Evans posted a serviceable 4-81-0 receiving line on eight targets, and all of that damage was done against Terrell. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the fewest to right perimeter receivers, which is where Terrell has aligned 65% of the time.

Takeaway: Atlanta's man-heavy scheme suggests these two will be head-to-head a ton this weekend, especially with Evans aligned on the perimeter 73% of the time this season. Lower expectations for Tampa Bay's top receiver a bit.

Tough Matchups

Lions' Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds vs. Ravens' Brandon Stephens, Arthur Maulet and Marlon Humphrey

Baltimore has allowed the fewest fantasy points over expected to wide receivers this season. Despite missing Humphrey to begin the season and having faced the fourth-most WR targets, the Ravens have allowed the ninth-fewest points to the position (third fewest over the past four weeks). Wideouts are averaging 5.9 yards per target and 10.0 yards per reception against them, both of which are lowest in the league. Expectations for Detroit's receivers should be lowered, though the only one from the group that you're likely considering for your lineup (St. Brown) remains a lineup lock.

Colts' Alec Pierce, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Browns' Martin Emerson Jr., Greg Newsome II and Denzel Ward

The Browns' defense has been nothing short of elite this season, and that domination includes the dismantling of opposing team's WR rooms. Cleveland has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers overall, to the perimeter and to the slot. The Browns have allowed opposing receivers the fewest receptions and receiving yards, only one TD and a league-low 45% catch rate. Only one WR (George Pickens) has reached 12 fantasy points against them. Pittman is good enough and has seen enough volume that he'll be tough to bench, though Downs will have his hands full with Newsome in the slot and is best left on benches.

Steelers' Diontae Johnson and George Pickens vs. Rams' Derion Kendrick and Ahkello Witherspoon

I'm not sure anyone outside the Rams organization saw this coming, but Los Angeles has been solid defensively and very good at slowing wide receivers. The Rams have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position (second fewest over expected), as well as the second-fewest points to the perimeter. Johnson (81% perimeter) is expected back from IR this week, and he'll join Pickens (87%) against Kendrick and Witherspoon on the boundary. Both can be downgraded slightly. You're likely not starting him, but Allen Robinson (74% slot) doesn't need to be downgraded against Decobie Durant (the Rams have allowed the seventh-most points to the slot).

Advantageous Matchups

Rams' Tutu Atwell, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vs. Steelers' Levi Wallace, Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson

Pittsburgh exits its bye having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs this season, as well as the fourth most to the perimeter and 11th most to the slot. Granted, it has been very volume based (third-most WR targets faced), but it has nonetheless led to a ton of fantasy production (second-most yards allowed to the position, and three WRs have reached 32 fantasy points against them). None of Peterson, Wallace and Sullivan have played especially well, so all of Cooper, Nacua and Atwell can be upgraded.

Saints' Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave vs. Jaguars' Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams

Campbell and Williams are solid players, but that hasn't stopped opposing wide receivers from soaking up fantasy points. The Jaguars have surrendered the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the second most to the perimeter and fifth fewest to the slot. Jacksonville has allowed five receivers to reach 19 fantasy points, and all were primarily boundary receivers. Thomas (68% perimeter) is the biggest benefactor here, though Olave (58%) and Shaheed (59%) get a boost as well.

Giants' Jalin Hyatt, Wan'Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton vs. Commanders' Benjamin St-Juste, Danny Johnson and Kendall Fuller

The Commanders' struggles in pass defense led to a big lineup change in Week 6, as they benched first-round rookie Emmanuel Forbes and replaced him with veteran slot man Johnson. Washington continues to try to fix a pass defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position (most over expected), as well as the most to the perimeter. Washington has surrendered a league-high nine TDs to WRs, as well as the highest YPT (10.5) and YPR (16.5). Six WRs have reached 19 fantasy points against them in as many games. It's tough to trust any Giants receivers, but this adds some flex appeal for Robinson in a week with six teams on a bye.

Seahawks' DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett vs. Cardinals' Marco Wilson, Antonio Hamilton Sr. and Kei'Trel Clark

The Cardinals have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers, as well as the sixth most to the perimeter. They've allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, fourth-highest YPT (9.7) and third-highest catch rate (74%). Metcalf (82% perimeter) and Lockett (68%) get a nice boost in this one, as the duo will see plenty of Wilson and either Hamilton (if slot CB/S Jalen Thompson returns from injury) or the sixth-round rookie Clark.

49ers' Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel vs. Vikings' Akayleb Evans, Josh Metellus and Byron Murphy Jr.

Minnesota has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers (second most over expected), including the 11th most to the perimeter and second most to the slot. Murphy is currently the only every-down perimeter corner, with recent draft selections Evans, Andrew Booth Jr. and Mekhi Blackmon getting run on the other side of the formation. The plan obviously hasn't gone well and sets up Aiyuk (77% perimeter) and Samuel (70%) for a big day at the office. The duo will also get some slot run against Metellus, who has been targeted on a massive 35% of snaps in which he has aligned at corner. Samuel is currently listed by head coach Kyle Shanahan as "day-to-day," so monitor his status ahead of kickoff.