Throughout the NFL regular season, we'll meet here on Thursdays to break down the film from a fantasy football perspective. I'm looking for trends and tendencies on both side of the ball to give fantasy managers a jump when they set their weekly lineups. Schemes matter. So does offensive deployment in weekly matchups. And remember, the game tape always tells us a story.
Heading into the first week of the season, we won't focus on the Tier 1 players. Those guys are already locked in as your fantasy starters. Instead, let's look at a flex play with upside and a couple players you can move up this week based on the matchup. Plus, we'll discuss the players I have some questions about, in addition to some fantasy targets we need to monitor this Sunday.
Week 1 is finally here. Let's get into it.
Week 1 upgrades
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Moore caught just nine screen passes last season with the Panthers, but in this Chicago offense, that number should elevate quickly, starting with the Week 1 matchup versus the Green Bay defense. Moore has the ball carrier vision and physical play style to produce after the catch. These are easy tosses for quarterback Justin Fields and will allow Moore to get loose in space. Add in the schemed crossers here, as the Bears can set up Fields to attack coverage voids with Moore as his primary read. Those are quick, high-percentage throws. You can start Moore with confidence this week as a PPR flex in your lineup.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
Robinson is a matchup play for me in Week 1, as a volume ball carrier against a subpar Cardinals front seven. He logged at least 17 carries in seven of his 12 games played last season. Robinson is a downhill, north/south hammer at 220 pounds with the foot speed to dance out of trouble. We know Robinson likely won't give you high-end receiving totals. That's Antonio Gibson's job in Washington. However, this should be a volume day for Robinson on early downs and inside the low red zone/goal line area of the field. You can start Robinson as a fringe RB2 in non-PPR leagues, while he's more of a flex in PPR formats.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ridley has the refined route-running traits to manipulate coverage. We know that. He's an easy mover and explosive out of the break. But I like him even more in the Jaguars' Week 1 matchup against the Colts because of the offensive answers Doug Pederson can scheme up. Remember, the Colts will play a heavy mix of split-safety and single-high zone coverage. This is where Pederson can carve out voids for Ridley on in-breakers, crossers and leveled concepts. And those are also defined throws for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. See it and rip it. You can play Ridley this week as a high-end WR2.
Players I have questions about in Week 1
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I view Evans as a WR3/flex this week versus a Vikings defense that will be more single-high and pressure-heavy under new coordinator Brian Flores. And that should create some boundary matchups for Evans on vertical throws. But I still want to see how much target volume Evans gets in a Baker Mayfield-led offense that should lean on the run game and play-action elements. That's when Mayfield is at his best, throwing scripted play-action passes, taking his shots off max protection and attacking the edges on boot. Is there a path for Evans to climb into the WR2 tier this season?
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Harris is still a fantasy starter this week. He'll see run- and pass-game volume versus San Francisco behind an upgraded Steelers offensive front. He is down in my ranks as a lower-tier RB2, however, because of the matchup. Whether or not Nick Bosa gets a full complement of snaps with the 49ers' defense, that unit is still pretty nasty in the box. Last season, the 49ers allowed just 3.4 yards per carry, which tied for the league's best. This defense will cut off the ball on the perimeter and fill gaps. Manage your expectations with Najee in this one.
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
Wilson is an instinctual thrower who will voluntarily play outside of structure. Last season, he averaged just 15 fantasy points per game. On Sunday against the Raiders, I want to see if he can throw with timing and rhythm under new head coach Sean Payton. Even if Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) can't go, Payton's pass game should put Wilson in a position to read it out with speed, which would cut down on the unnecessary pocket movement and second-reaction throws we saw last season on the Denver tape.
Players to monitor in Week 1
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
I drafted Flowers in multiple leagues because he has real upside in a new Baltimore offense that will create more space in the pass game. And I think I have an idea of how Flowers can be deployed as a motion/movement player. He has the juice to create explosive plays, but he'll stay on my bench in Week 1. I want to see how many offensive touches he gets in the game plan first.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints
Johnson had some big moments last season, when he caught 42 balls for 508 yards and seven touchdowns. He's down in TE2 territory in my Week 1 ranks, but let's see how the Saints use Johnson when he is detached from the formation versus the Titans on Sunday. If he is that seam-stretcher at the third level, Johnson could be a quick waiver add in Week 2, as he's rostered in only 34.4% of ESPN leagues.
De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
With Jeff Wilson Jr. on injured reserve to start the season, the door is open for Achane to see offensive touches behind starter Raheem Mostert in Miami. Let's monitor the carries here, plus how Achane is utilized as a receiver in Mike McDaniel's offense. I was all-in on Achane's college tape as a multidimensional running back.