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Fantasy football Shadow Report: Commanders WRs primed to break out in Week 1

Jahan Dotson and the Commanders wide receivers open with a choice matchup against the Cardinals. Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defense schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week. Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can also help you make the best waiver wire pickups.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.

Advantageous matchups

Commanders' Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson vs. Cardinals' Marco Wilson, Antonio Hamilton Sr. and Christian Matthew

Arizona lost Byron Murphy during free agency and did not replace its top corner. Wilson returns as the team's likely top corner, with 30-year-old journeyman Hamilton and 2022 seventh-round flier Matthew positioned for significant roles. The other candidates here are sixth-round rookie Kei'Trel Clark, UDFA Starling Thomas V and veteran newcomer Kris Boyd. There's risk of the unknown here with QB Sam Howell making his second NFL start, but McLaurin (if able to play), Dotson and Samuel are all positioned well for a big season debut.

Jaguars' Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones vs. Colts' JuJu Brents, Kenny Moore II and Darrell Baker Jr.

The Colts traded Stephon Gilmore, which leaves Moore (who covers the slot in nickel), second-round rookie Brents and 2022 UDFA Baker as the favorites to play most of the corner snaps early this season. The likes of Dallis Flowers (2022 UDFA), Tony Brown (2018 UDFA) and Jaylon Jones (2023 7th) are the other candidates for work. Moore is one of the league's most underrated corners, but he's looking for a rebound campaign after an injury-plagued down year in 2022. Otherwise, this is a situation ripe for the picking for the Jaguars' terrific Ridley/Kirk/Jones trio. Kirk will see Moore most often, so he gets no more than a slight boost, whereas Ridley and Jones get a larger bump.

Seahawks' DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett vs. Rams' Derion Kendrick, Cobie Durant and Ahkello Witherspoon

The Rams struggled against wide receivers last season, and that was with Jalen Ramsey in the fold. Ramsey is gone (as are Troy Hill and David Long Jr.), which leaves Witherspoon, Durant and Kendrick as the favorites to handle most of the CB snaps. Both 2022 Day 3 draft picks, slot man Durant was serviceable in a limited role and Kendrick struggled in a larger perimeter role during their rookie campaigns. Witherspoon and Duke Shelley (signed last week) were two of the Rams' biggest offseason veteran acquisitions and might be counted on for a lot of work this season. The same goes for sixth-round rookie Tre Tomlinson. This is an opportunity for Metcalf and Lockett to get off to a huge start.

Buccaneers' Chris Godwin and Mike Evans vs. Vikings' Akayleb Evans, Byron Murphy Jr. and Andrew Booth Jr.

The Vikings are in transition at cornerback. Patrick Peterson, Chandon Sullivan, Cam Dantzler and Duke Shelley were the only CBs to exceed 160 snaps played for this defense in 2022 and none remains on the roster. Murphy was a key offseason add and figures to handle the slot in nickel. This means a lot of matchups with Godwin, whom we're upgrading only slightly. Evans (2022 fourth-rounder) and Booth (2022 second-rounder) struggled on a combined 259 snaps during their rookie campaigns. They'll compete for snaps with third-round rookie Mekhi Blackmon and UDFA NaJee Thompson. Evans gets a big boost in the first game of the post-Tom Brady era.

Tough matchups

Bills' Gabe Davis, Deonte Harty and Stefon Diggs vs. Jets' D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner

The Jets return their entire starting trio, which is notable considering they allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last season. That includes the fewest to the perimeter, which is where Diggs (66%) and Davis (90%) align most often. Diggs posted receiving lines of 5-93-0 (10 targets) and 3-37-0 (five targets), whereas Davis managed lines of 2-33-0 (five targets) and 3-31-0 (four targets) in the two games against New York in 2022. In fact, Josh Allen totaled 352 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs through the air in those two outings. Downgrade the Bills' passing game.

Raiders' Davante Adams vs. Broncos' Pat Surtain II (shadow)

Denver allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs last season (fourth fewest to the perimeter), thanks primarily to the elite play of Surtain. The standout corner shadowed quite a bit throughout 2022, and that included showdowns with Adams in Week 4 (25 of 35 routes, including 24 of 25 perimeter) and Week 11 (19 of 38 routes, including 19 of 23 perimeter). Adams had little trouble in those games, posting a 9-101-0 receiving line (13 targets) in Week 4 and 7-141-2 line (13 targets) in Week 11. This suggests we shouldn't move the needle on Adams, but there's nonetheless some added risk here against one of the league's best defenders. Meanwhile, Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow get slight boosts against Damarri Mathis and Essang Bassey.

Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase vs. Browns' Denzel Ward (Shadow), Tyler Boyd vs. Greg Newsome II (Slot), Tee Higgins vs. Martin Emerson Jr. (Shadow)

Cleveland has a really good, young cornerback room and that was on display in 2022 when the Browns allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, including the fewest to the slot. The Bengals return their elite WR trio and the Browns their top three corners from 2022, though we didn't see any full games with all six of these players healthy last season. We did, however, see Ward shadow Chase (27 of 35 routes, including 27 of 28 perimeter) in the most recent game between these teams (Week 14). Chase played well in that game (10-119-1 receiving line on 15 targets) and so, while Ward is a terrific corner, we don't need to adjust Chase's outlook very much here. With Ward on Chase, expect Emerson to travel with Higgins on the other side of the field, with Newsome covering Boyd in the slot.

Chargers' Mike Williams vs. Dolphins' Xavien Howard (Shadow)

Howard shadowed quite a bit last season and figures to continue to do so at least as long as Jalen Ramsey is sidelined in 2023. One of those 2022 shadow situations was a Week 14 matchup with the Chargers in which he traveled with Williams on 29 of his 39 routes (28 of 28 perimeter). Williams had Howard's number that day (6-116-1 receiving line), though he was limited to six targets. Howard isn't coming off his best season, but he's one of the league's best talents at the position. Expect these two to face off throughout this game.

Jets' Garrett Wilson vs. Bills' Tre'Davious White (Shadow)

Wilson is a strong bet for a 2023 breakout season, but he might have his hands full with one of the league's top corners in Week 1. White was out most of 2022 due to injury, but he shadowed Wilson when healthy in Week 14. White aligned against Wilson on 30 of his 50 routes, including 29 of 30 on the perimeter. Wilson posted a 6-78-0 receiving line on seven targets in the game. Wilson moves to the slot enough (37% of the time in 2022) that we don't need to worry about this a ton (White only plays outside), but it figures to lower his ceiling a bit.

Titans' DeAndre Hopkins vs. Saints' Marshon Lattimore (Shadow)

Lattimore is back after an injury-plagued 2022 campaign in which he was limited to seven games. The veteran corner has shadowed top receivers plenty over the years and that includes matchups with Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson early last season. It's not a lock that he'll travel with Hopkins, but especially with Treylon Burks perhaps not at 100% health, it seems like a good bet this week. Lattimore has a history of coming up big against top receivers, so there's reason for mild concern here, but not enough to bump Hopkins down more than a few spots in the rankings.

Browns' Amari Cooper vs. Bengals' Chidobe Awuzie (Shadow)

Cincinnati was very good at slowing wide receivers early last season, but fell off dramatically once Awuzie tore his ACL in Week 8 (coincidentally while shadowing Cooper). Awuzie is back and figures to again travel with Cleveland's top wide receiver. Prior to leaving that Week 8 meeting, Awuzie covered Cooper on 9 of his 13 routes, including all eight on the perimeter, and Cooper was held without a catch on two targets. That's a small sample, so we don't need to panic here, but don't be surprised if Cooper starts the season slowly.

Other notable downgrades

Other matchups and notes

  • Don't be surprised if the Falcons' Drake London is shadowed by the Panthers' Jaycee Horn. Horn shadowed sparingly last season, but new DC Ejiro Evero used Pat Surtain II as a shadow cover quite often in Denver. Downgrade London only slightly.

  • Ravens receiver Odell Beckham Jr. could draw shadow coverage from Texans 2022 first-round pick Derek Stingley Jr. Stingley struggled as a rookie and this is a new scheme, so no reason for concern here.

  • The Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb could draw the Giants' Adoree' Jackson as a shadow at times, but note that Lamb aligned in the slot 62% of the time last season. We should expect similar usage with Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks likely to work the perimeter most of the time. Lamb doesn't need to be downgraded.

  • The Vikings' Justin Jefferson could draw the shadow from the Buccaneers' Carlton Davis III. It's seemingly unlikely, however, as Davis didn't shadow at all in 2022 until running mate Jamel Dean went out with an injury late in the season. The most likely outcome is that Dean and Davis will play sides, combining to cover Jefferson on the approximately 70% or so of his routes run from the perimeter.