Perhaps Detroit Lions RB Jamaal Williams scores a touchdown Sunday in Carolina. Perhaps he does not. Feels like a simple, obvious point, but ultimately, do you feel lucky? This has become quite a quandary for fantasy football managers aiming to advance in their playoffs. Nobody has scored more touchdowns this season than Williams (he is tied with Chargers RB Austin Ekeler with 14 TDs), but he has not scored the past two games, and his investors are suddenly concerned. ESPN's rankers seem pessimistic, most ranking him as an RB4, making it seem as if Williams is hardly safe to count on this week.
In the bigger picture, of course, the Lions are rolling along, having won six of seven games to firmly enter NFC wild-card contention, and little has changed in how the offense utilizes Williams. He has 29 rushing attempts the past two weeks for 70 yards (including several goal line rushes last week), and he hasn't caught any more passes than you and I have since Week 8. When Williams isn't crossing the end zone with the football, he isn't helping fantasy managers much and thus, he sits on the proverbial hot seat in our world. Then again, if nothing has changed with his usage, why is there more pessimism than normal?
Few would debate which Lions running back oozes the upside. It's clearly D'Andre Swift, but he has had ankle and shoulder injuries all season long, and probably still is physically compromised. The Lions are extra careful with Swift, though he has received double-digit touches in two of three games. Swift hasn't scored a touchdown the past two games (wins over the Vikings and Jets), either. QB Jared Goff has four touchdown passes in those games. The Lions have permitted an average of 18 points over the past three games, the improved defense keying their surge.
There really isn't a right answer when it comes to whether deploying Williams as your RB2 or flex option for a Week 16 road game against the Panthers makes sense or not. Whether it is Week 6 or Week 16, what matters is you need a win, and we always recommend playing your best options. There is no room for loyalty or "playing the guy who got you there," but fantasy managers seem to enjoy overthinking everything. Williams has been touchdown-dependent all season and even when he was scoring multiple times per week -- something he has done in five games -- we knew there was risk.
Still, Williams needs to average only 54 rushing yards over the final three games to reach 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his six-year career. Does this matter? After all, rushing for 1,000 yards used to mean a lot back in the day, but over a 16-game season it's merely 62.5 yards per game, and now that we have 17 games, it's 58.8 yards per contest. We probably should recalibrate rushing-yard benchmarks, but still, only seven players have already hit 1,000 rushing yards, including Bears QB Justin Fields. That's the same number of players that reached the mark last season.
A fantasy investor might not want to read this, but nothing has really changed for how we evaluate Williams in the past two weeks. Swift is not pushing him aside at all, and the team isn't throwing the football more. Williams saw five red zone rushes against the Jets, three of them inside the 10-yard line and two inside the 5-yard line. He could have scored a touchdown (or two) and then we would not be concerned. Think about how little it takes to make fantasy managers concerned. Count on Williams if he is one of your best flex options, or don't, but the narrative in his successful season remains the same. Few running backs have as good a shot as Williams to score a touchdown this week.
Quarterbacks on the hot seat
We've got quite a few new names starting this week, and few will rely on the Colts' Nick Foles, Cardinals' Trace McSorley and Titans' Malik Willis. However, how Eagles fill-in Gardner Minshew performs at Dallas might affect whether the franchise pushes starter Jalen Hurts (shoulder) for Week 17. ... There's little chance the Cowboys bench Dak Prescott, even if he loses to rival Philly's backup, but fantasy managers know he has multiple interceptions in four of six games. That's become a problem. ... Commanders starter Taylor Heinicke faces a tough road game in San Francisco and since he hasn't been producing big numbers anyway, there seems a decent chance Carson Wentz starts Week 17 versus Cleveland.
Running backs
Falcons TD maker Cordarrelle Patterson scored 12.2 PPR points last week, but rookie Tyler Allgeier scored 22.6. Maybe they can thrive together, but this offense already switched to a rookie QB. It might phase out Patterson, too. ... We've been here before with the Buccaneers' Leonard Fournette. The last game he reached 15 PPR points was Week 6. Are fantasy managers still relying on him or rookie Rachaad White? ... Carolina's D'Onta Foreman has rushed for more than 110 yards in four of the past eight games. In three others, he hasn't reached 25 yards. He's been all or nothing and I would argue no less risky than Detroit's Williams. ... Washington's Antonio Gibson hasn't done much his past three games. Go with Brian Robinson Jr. instead.
Wide receivers
Arizona's Marquise Brown is healthy, but his QBs aren't. Stop looking at early-season stats for Brown. ... The Lions' DJ Chark came back to statistical earth in Week 15, scoring 2.8 PPR points. Tough to rely on him. ... Colts star Michael Pittman Jr. is regarded as a WR2 still, but should he be? Perhaps Nick Foles can't be worse than what the Colts have relied on already. ... Cleveland's Amari Cooper is clearly hindered by a hip injury and playing the Saints won't help it. You might want to avoid the entire Browns passing game this week. ... Steelers rookie George Pickens has been quiet since Week 11. Ah, rookies.