Welcome to the Week 16 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention shallow or deep leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens
Lineup lock: Mark Andrews
J.K. Dobbins has been on a tear since his Week 14 return from injury, reaching 14 touches, 120 yards and 13 fantasy points in both outings. He's a nonfactor in the passing game (just one target over his past four games), but his role as the team's primary ball carrier keeps him in the fringe RB2 discussion.
Tyler Allgeier exploded for 139 yards and a score on 17 carries last week, but he entered Week 15 having finished four straight games in the 9-to-11 touch range and below 8.0 fantasy points. Allgeier is stuck in a three-man committee and is a nonfactor as a receiver (only two targets over his past four games). Cordarrelle Patterson has been held under 12.5 fantasy points in five straight games and is an underwhelming flex.
Drake London posted a 7-70-0 receiving line on 11 targets last week (Desmond Ridder's first start) after delivering a 6-95-0 line on 12 targets in Week 13. The heavy usage and good connection with Ridder is enough to get the rookie back in the WR3/flex mix.
Over/Under: 37.2 (10th highest in Week 16)
Win probability: Ravens 74% (second highest in Week 16)
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Lineup lock: Amon-Ra St. Brown
D'Andre Swift has been in the 31-38% range in terms of snap share in five of his past six games. That has led to inconsistent touches, but he also has produced 75-plus yards and 12.5-plus fantasy points in two of his past three outings. Fresh off a game with eight carries and nine targets, Swift is in the RB2 discussion. Jamaal Williams (under 12 fantasy points in six of his past seven games) is not.
D'Onta Foreman was held to only 9yards on 10 touches last week and has fallen short of 11.5 fantasy points in four straight games. Similarly, Chuba Hubbard has been held under 10 fantasy points in four of five contests. Hubbard held a big 27-13 snap edge last week, but this figures to remain a two-man committee in a low-scoring offense. No player has reached double-digit RB fantasy points against Detroit since Week 7, and no team has allowed fewer fantasy points to the position over the past eight weeks. Avoid both of these backs if possible.
DJ Moore hasn't seen more than six targets in any game since Week 8, but he has produced two 18-plus point outings out of his three games with Sam Darnold at quarterback. That includes a 5-73-1 showing in Week 15. Moore remains a viable WR3, especially against a Lions defense that has surrendered the third-most WR fantasy points.
Over/Under: 44.7 (fifth highest)
Win probability: Lions 60% (eighth highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Stefon Diggs
Buffalo's backs are set up with a nice matchup this week, but there's not a ton of upside with any of Devin Singletary (four straight games under 11.5 fantasy points), James Cook (over seven touches and 40 yards in only one of his past four games) and Nyheim Hines (just nine touches over seven games since joining Buffalo). Singletary is the best flex of the three.
Dawson Knox posted a season-best 14.1 fantasy points in Week 14 and proceeded to eclipse that mark with 21.8 points in Week 15. With 15 targets and a pair of touchdowns during the span, Knox is back in the streaming discussion. However, you should note that Chicago has allowed the third-fewest TE fantasy points and the fewest catches to the position.
Cole Kmet has seen 4-7 targets in six straight games, but he's been held under 40 yards in three of his past four starts and hasn't scored a touchdown during the span. He's best left on benches in a game expected to be very windy and against a Bills defense that has yet to allow a TE touchdown this season.
Over/Under: 44.2 (sixth highest)
Win probability: Bills 59% (10th highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns
Lineup locks: Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara
Deshaun Watson has scored just twice in three games, and his only top-20 fantasy outing was a QB14 in Week 14. Both teams should have difficulty in the passing game with expected rain/snow, freezing temperatures and, most concerning, extremely heavy winds. Watson shouldn't be in lineups, whereas top targets Amari Cooper and David Njoku (usually both lineup locks) are riskier than usual. Keep an eye on the weather right up until kickoff.
Juwan Johnson scored twice last week and has found the end zone seven times over his past seven games. The problem here is consistency, as he had zero catches in Week 14 and his 67 yards in Week 15 was easily a season high. Johnson is averaging 4.2 targets and 32 yards per game, and Cleveland has allowed the sixth-fewest TE fantasy points. He's best left on benches.
Over/Under: 33.1 (13th highest)
Win probability: Browns 54% (15th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce
Jerick McKinnon is red-hot, having produced 32-plus fantasy points in two straight games. He delivered at least 8 targets, 7 receptions, 70 receiving yards and 1 TD catch in both games and has now seen eight-plus targets in four of his past seven games. McKinnon will return to earth a bit moving forward, but he has another sterling matchup against a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-most RB yards, touchdowns (17) and fantasy points. Running mate Isiah Pacheco has 15-plus touches and 82-plus yards in six straight games and remains in the RB2 mix.
Tyler Lockett is out this week, but "next man up" Marquise Goodwin hasn't cleared six targets in any game since Week 11 of last season. He's a deep-league flex against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the most WR touchdowns (19) and the fourth-most WR fantasy points.
Over/Under: 54.4 (highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 72% (third highest)
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson
Daniel Jones and Kirk Cousins are both streaming options this week. Jones has produced 17-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games and gets a matchup boost against a Vikings defense that has allowed 17-plus QB points in five of the team's past six contests. Cousins has thrown for at least 425 yards in two straight games and has hit 21 fantasy points in three of his past four outings. That's enough reason to fire him up, although his ceiling figures to be limited a bit considering New York has allowed only one player (Jalen Hurts) to reach 20 QB fantasy points in a game.
Darius Slayton has posted consecutive duds, but he saw a healthy seven targets last week and, in the six games before his cold streak, he averaged 6.8 targets and 76.3 yards per game. He sat at WR25 in fantasy points during the span. Slayton gets a big boost this week with Minnesota having allowed the most catches and the second-most yards and fantasy points to wideouts.
Over/Under: 45.1 (fourth highest)
Win probability: Vikings 68% (sixth highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Rhamondre Stevenson, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Jakobi Meyers is on quite the cold streak, having fallen short of double-digit fantasy points in five straight games. He's actually been under 12 points in seven of his past eight contests. Meyers has been held under seven targets and 65 yards in his past five outings and has fallen to the flex mix against a Bengals defense that has allowed just nine WR touchdowns this season (fourth fewest).
Over/Under: 39.7 (8th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 70% (5th highest)
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup lock: Derrick Henry
Houston's RB usage with Dameon Pierce out last week was as follows: Dare Ogunbowale (8 carries, 0 targets, 27 snaps), Royce Freeman (11 carries, 1 target, 22 snaps) and Rex Burkhead (0 carries, 4 targets, 9 snaps). With three backs involved and going against a Titans defense that has allowed the second-fewest RB yards, the seventh-fewest RB touchdowns (8) and the eighth-fewest RB fantasy points, this situation should be avoided.
With Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins out for the past two weeks, Chris Moore has seen 19 total targets. The journeyman will sustain a big offensive role until both Cooks and Collins return, so he can be considered a flex against a Titans pass defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points.
Over the past three weeks, Chigoziem Okonkwo trails only Evan Engram in TE fantasy points. The rookie has seen 5-6 targets in four straight games and has produced double-digit fantasy points in three straight. He's obviously trending up, but he isn't quite a TE1 option, especially this week with Malik Willis expected to start in place of injured Ryan Tannehill. Willis attempted a total of just 26 passes over his two previous starts and has yet to score a touchdown.
Over/Under: 32.9 (15th highest)
Win probability: Titans 56% (12th highest)
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Terry McLaurin, George Kittle
Brian Robinson Jr. was limited to 13 touches last week (his third fewest in any game), but he still produced over 105 scrimmage yards for the third straight game. Robinson is averaging 16.8 touches per game, but neither he nor Antonio Gibson (below 9.0 fantasy points in three straight contests) can be trusted this week against a 49ers defense that has allowed the lowest YPC (3.3), lowest YPT (4.2) and fewest RB fantasy points. The last back to reach 13.5 fantasy points in a game against the 49ers was McCaffrey (then with Carolina) back in Week 5.
Brandon Aiyuk should be a "lineup lock" with Deebo Samuel out, but he was a major letdown last week (2-19-0 on four targets) and has now been held below 14 fantasy points in four straight games (and five of his past six). Better days are likely ahead, but he's safest as a WR3 for now.
Over/Under: 35.7 (12th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 78% (highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, Ezekiel Elliott, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert
Dallas is averaging a ridiculous 4.4 offensive scores per game since Dak Prescott's return from injury in Week 7. Despite this, Prescott has just one weekly finish better than QB8 (QB4 in Week 8). The Eagles have allowed the second-fewest QB fantasy points and only two QBs have reached 17 points against them, so Prescott is not an ideal streaming option in Week 16.
Gardner Minshew is expected to start in place of injured Jalen Hurts this week. Minshew averaged 17.0 fantasy points per game during his 23 games with Jacksonville, put up 18.8 points against the Jets in Week 13 last season, and even managed to reach 14.4 points with a team of backups later that season in Week 18. He adds some value with his legs (20.7 rushing yards per game in 25 games) and will face a Dallas defense that has been good against quarterbacks for the most part but also gave up a season-worst 26.8 points to Trevor Lawrence just last week. Minshew is a deep-league streaming option.
Over/Under: 46.5 (third highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 70% (fourth highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth
Najee Harris matched a season high with 24 touches last week, and the second-year back has now found the end zone in four of his past five games. Receiving work is still lacking (no targets last week and just five over his past four games), but Harris is producing enough that he's in the RB2 mix, especially against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the fourth-most RB fantasy points.
Darren Waller returned from IR last week, but he was limited, playing on only 48% of snaps and seeing just three targets. Waller did find the end zone, but the lack of targets makes him a risky fantasy start and more of a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 43.3 (seventh highest)
Win probability: Raiders 55% (14th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Jones, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Aaron Rodgers has just one weekly finish better than QB12 this season, and that was a QB9 back in Week 10. He has thrown two-plus TD passes in nine games but has now thrown exactly one in each of his past two starts and remains a nonfactor with his legs (64 yards, 0 TD). He barely squeezes onto the streaming radar this week -- and only because he's facing a Miami defense that has allowed the second-most QB fantasy points.
With Jeff Wilson Jr. out last week, Raheem Mostert played on 44 of 57 snaps and soaked up 17 carries and a pair of targets. Mostert's fantasy output has been all over the map (16-plus points in four of his past nine games but under 9.0 points in the other five). This is a quality matchup as Green Bay has allowed the fifth-highest YPC and eighth-highest YPT to backs, but Mostert will be a solid RB2 option only if Wilson remains out.
Christian Watson failed to find the end zone in Week 15 after totaling eight touchdowns over his previous four games, but the good news is that he still saw seven targets (six-plus in five straight) and another end zone target (his six since Week 10 trails only DK Metcalf for most in the league). Watson remains a viable WR2/3, whereas teammate Allen Lazard (under 12 fantasy points in five straight games) has fallen to flex territory.
Over/Under: 47.5 (second highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 56% (13th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Rams
Lineup locks: None
Latavius Murray exploded for 142 yards and a score on 25 touches last week, which allowed him to reach a season-high 21.2 fantasy points. He played on 64% of snaps, with Marlon Mack (28%) and Devine Ozigbo (7%) being minimal threats. Murray should continue to soak up most of the work and makes for a back-end RB2/flex against the Rams.
Jerry Jeudy has produced receiving lines of 8-73-3 and 7-76-0 on a total of 17 targets during his past two games. In fact, if we include his past six full games, he's averaging 8.3 targets, 69.2 yards and 16.6 fantasy points per game. Jeudy is at least a WR3, and we can bump him up to WR2 status if Courtland Sutton (hamstring) misses his third straight game.
Over/Under: 28.6 (16th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 63% (seventh highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup locks: James Conner, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins
Tom Brady tossed three TD passes last week and has produced 16-plus fantasy points in four of his past five outings, although he hasn't reached 20 points in a game since Week 4. With a good matchup against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the second-most passing scores (25), he can be considered a high-floor/low-ceiling streamer.
Leonard Fournette (10 carries, 5 targets, 39 snaps last week) and Rachaad White (11 carries, 2 targets, 29 snaps) continue to split the Tampa Bay backfield. The duo is set up with a great matchup this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed 16 RB touchdowns (fourth most) and the seventh-most RB fantasy points. Fournette's passing-down advantage gives him a slight edge as the preferred flex.
Marquise Brown has seen exactly eight targets in all three games since his return from IR, but he's been held under 50 yards and 11 fantasy points in each outing. He's a riskier WR3 this week with Trace McSorley making his first NFL start in place of the injured duo of Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy.
Over/Under: 37 (11th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 59% (11th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Michael Pittman Jr.
Jonathan Taylor left Week 15 after two snaps with an injury and is expected to miss this game. With Taylor sidelined, Zack Moss was the Colts' lead back. He handled 24 carries and one target on 53 snaps, compared with 13 carries and one target on 25 snaps for Deon Jackson. The two figure to share the backfield this week (perhaps with some involvement from Jordan Wilkins) in what is an elite matchup against a poor Chargers run defense that has allowed the sixth-most RB fantasy points and the highest YPC (5.5). The massive Week 15 volume from Moss makes him the preferred flex option.
Over/Under: 39 (ninth highest)
Win probability: Chargers 60% (ninth highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Garrett Wilson, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Trevor Lawrence is up to QB6 in fantasy points and he's finished no lower than that in four of his last five outings. Despite the strong play, he's a risky play this week against a Jets defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest QB fantasy points over the last eight weeks.
Zonovan Knight had his first career dud last week (23 yards on 13 touches), but it wasn't a big shock against a Detroit defense that has been elite against the run as of late. The larger issue is that Knight was outsnapped (33-28) by Michael Carter, and the margin was substantial on pass plays (28-12) for the second week in a row. Knight remains the Jets' top rusher and has a better matchup this week, but he's no more than a fringe RB2.
Zay Jones had a career day in Week 15, posting a 6-109-3 receiving line on eight targets. Jones has now produced at least 21 fantasy points in three of his last four games and is averaging 10.3 targets per game during the span. Jones is trending toward lineup-lock status, but he has a brutal matchup this week against a Jets defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the perimeter (and fewest overall) over the last two months. Jones aligns out wide 65% of the time (compared to 23% for Kirk), which means he'll see a ton of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Consider Jones to be a WR3.
Over/Under: 40.3 (eighth highest)
Win probability: Jets 50% (16th highest)