Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
As we move deeper into the fantasy playoffs, let's look at the Week 16 NFL schedule. The prime matchups. There in here. So are the upside plays. And the volume targets. Plus, we'll look at my notes from the tape, with some veteran tips for staying warm in these cold weather games.
So let's get into it, with my upgrades and downgrades for this week's slate of games.
Upgrades for Week 16
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
I have McKinnon ranked as a mid-tier RB2 this week (RB16) in a prime matchup versus the Seahawks defense. Yes, McKinnon will see his touches in the run game. But this is really about his deployment and usage as a receiver. Screens, unders, backfield releases, leveled concepts. High-percentage throws for Patrick Mahomes here to get the running back loose after the catch. McKinnon has now seen 17 targets in his last two games, with 15 receptions for 182 yards and three scores. He's an easy start against a Seattle defense allowing 29.4 PPR points per game to opposing backs -- the second most in the league.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Watson produced just 8.9 PPR points in Week 15, ending a four game streak with at least one touchdown and 21 or more PPR points. The rookie, however, did lead the team with six targets in the Monday night win over the Rams, and the Packers schemed for the Watson inside the red zone. With a Week 16 matchup versus a Dolphins defense that majors in single-high coverages (Cover 1, Cover 3), Watson will have opportunities on vertical one-on-ones, and Green Bay will create interior coverage voids for the wide receiver to run the glance and dig routes, which are staple throws for Aaron Rodgers. I have Watson as an upside WR2 this week.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I have Godwin ranked as a lower-tier WR1 this week given his target volume, plus the matchup versus Arizona. In his last four games, Godwin has seen a total of 43 targets from quarterback Tom Brady. And during that stretch, he's posted two games of 22 or more PPR points. In the Christmas night game against the pressure heavy Cardinals defense, Godwin should emerge as a high-volume target on middle of the field and underneath throws. Get the ball out quick here, Tom.
Downgrades for Week 16
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
I roster Prescott in multiple home leagues, but this is a matchup move for me against the Eagles defense. This season, Philly is allowing just 12.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the second fewest in the NFL. The Eagles secondary is the best I've studied on tape this season, too. And that pass rush is deep, versatile -- with multiple fronts and stunts. In a Week 16 game that could be more run-heavy on the Dallas call sheet, it's best to find another quarterback option (one with more upside) in the fantasy playoffs. Dak is a QB2 for me in the rankings.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
I'm out on Brown this week. The production hasn't been there since returning from the IR list. Three straight games with under 50 yards receiving. Back-to-back weeks of single-digit PPR points. And the Cards' quarterback situation for the Week 16 game versus Tampa creates even more pause, as No.3 Trace McSorley gets the start. Brown will need explosive plays (over the top of the secondary) to post viable numbers. I can't bet on that.
More notes from the tape
If Eagles starting quarterback Jalen Hurts can't go on Saturday versus Dallas (shoulder), then I do think backup Gardner Minshew has some streaming upside if you play in 12-14 team leagues. Minshew understands his limitations as a thrower. He can stay on schedule in the play-action and drop back pass game to deliver the ball with rhythm. And we know Minshew has the movement skills to create off-schedule (when necessary) as a runner/thrower.
Since Week 11, the Lions defense is allowing just 3.72 yards per carry. They are physical in the box. The safeties will fill downhill and get dirty in the front. And rookie defensive end Aidan Hutchinson can set an edge all day. This group just held the Jets to 2.3 yards per carry in Week 15. Tough matchup for Carolina running backs D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard this Saturday.
You can't stop your feet on contact (and end up on the highlights) versus Packers running AJ Dillon near the goal line. He's a freight train on the tracks at 240 pounds. Dillon scored two touchdowns in the Monday night win over the Rams, and finished with 22.1 PPR points. He's a Flex play for me in Week 16 against the Miami defense.
The Giants defense leads the NFL in blitz rate at 43.7%. Very interesting matchup here for Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins on Saturday, who has registered a QBR of 55.7 versus the blitz (five or more rushers). That ranks No.24 in the NFL. Let's see if New York can heart him up. Cousins in my QB9 this week.
Jaguars wide receiver Zay Jones cooked the Cowboys defense last week, dropping a season-high 34.9 PPR points on the Dallas secondary. Jones, who has now scored 21 or more PPR points in three of his last four games, can win one-on-one, and Doug Pederson will scheme him up, too. Even with a tough matchup on Thursday night versus the Jets defense, I am still rolling with Jones as a low-end WR2 given the level of play we are seeing from Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
I really like the tape on Jahan Dotson. The Commanders rookie wide receiver is sudden, dynamic -- and he brings a playmaking element to the Washington offense. Dotson has posted back-to-back games with 18 or more PPR points. He gets the 49ers defense this week. Possible streamer in deeper leagues here.
Detroit can scheme up wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to get free access off the ball with motion and alignment. There's a reason we see St. Brown running away from coverage in the middle of the field.
Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd caught his first touchdown since Week 8 during the over Tampa this past Sunday. With the Bucs using dedicated doubles (or brackets) versus Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the low red zone, Boyd had a true one-on-one matchup on the out cut for six.
Is Mike Williams the best "contested catch" receiver in the league? I think he is. Williams made another third level grab to set the Chargers up for the game-winning field goal against the Titans last week.
Gabe Davis hasn't recorded a double-digit PPR game since Week 11. Maybe we were too quick in predicting that breakout season for the Bills wide receiver.
Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is an upside streaming option this week in deeper leagues. The rookie has multi-dimensional traits for the position. And he's posted double-digit PPR points in three straight games.
Justin Fields' combination of power, speed and agility will create conflict for any defense in the NFL on designed carries or scramble attempts. He is a difference maker with the ball in his hands.
Lot of cold weather games on the Week 16 NFL slate, especially here in Chicago. The key to surviving those as a player? Put Vaseline on your face (to block the wind). And drink chicken broth on the sidelines. Veteran moves.