Welcome back to the Next Gen Advantage, where each week we dive deep into the advanced statistics created through NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data to find little edges for fantasy managers. This week, we're diving into Week 16 blocking matchups in the ground game, plus some receivers to target in the long-term, based on how open they were and how often they were targeted in 2022.
Matchups in the trenches
One tool we like to rely on in this space is our win rates: specifically, run stop win rate (and the converse, run block win rate) to evaluate matchups for running backs. While we have very good production-based matchup data (yards per carry against or fantasy points against), I think run stop win rate adds to the conversation. The way I think of it: Run stop win rate is process, and yards per carry against is result. Both are useful. So with that in mind, let's take a look at upgrades and downgrades for running backs this week, based on the RSWR of their opponents.
Upgrade: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bengals' RSWR rank: 29th
The win rates thought the Bengals were already a nice matchup for opposing rushers, even though their 4.0 yards per carry allowed to running backs isn't bad at all, but they look like a particularly appealing opponent now.
Upgrade: Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers' RSWR rank: 31st
The metrics agree: The Packers have a hard time stopping the run. In addition to its 31st-ranked run stop win rate, Green Bay is also letting up 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs, fifth-highest in the league. Enter the Dolphins, who are average in terms of run blocking this season but also Mostert, fresh off a 136-yard rushing performance against the Bills. He and/or Wilson ought to be able to take advantage.
Downgrade: Royce Freeman and Dare Ogunbowale at Tennessee Titans
Titans' RSWR rank: 1st
Eeeek. If you're still in the fantasy playoffs and rolling out one of these Texans backs in your lineup, it's clearly already rough. I'm only going to make it worse: The Titans are elite when it comes to stuffing the run. Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart both rank in the top seven in run stop win rate among defensive tackles and David Long Jr. leads all linebackers in the category.
Downgrade: Latavius Murray at Los Angeles Rams
Rams' RSWR rank: 2nd
Murray is coming off a huge Week 15 in which he ran for 130 yards and a touchdown, but that was against the Cardinals, who are 24th in RSWR. The Rams are a different story, even without Aaron Donald. Ernest Jones and Bobby Wagner rank second and seventh among linebackers in run stop win rate and should give Murray a tougher time in Week 15.
Open opportunities
It's fantasy playoff season, yes. But for those in keeper and dynasty leagues, some managers are in full-on 2023 mode. And it's never too early to identify values for next year. One aspect I wanted to look at: openness vs. target rate. We can use open score from our receiver tracking metrics -- which scores openness on all routes, not just targets -- and compare that with how often a player is targeted.
What's the simple takeaway from this chart? Players below the linear regression line are not being targeted as frequently on a per-route basis as we'd expect based on how open they get. And players above the line receive more targets than we'd expect based only on their open scores. So, let's break down some potential targets based on this information.
Target: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
I'm starting with Sutton because he has been banged up and therefore might be more acquirable in leagues without trade deadlines. Denver has been an absolute disaster this season, but one has to think changes are coming. Could a new offense and an offseason of rest help Russell Wilson and/or get Sutton more targets? I don't know, but if it does, Sutton's stock could seriously rise. He's at the high end of receivers in terms of getting open, and there are few receivers as open as he is who get targeted less frequently. I think it's reasonable to bet that will change in a new offense. Plus, Sutton's 21 catch score is a career low. I imagine there will be some positive regression in that department. That makes two ways Sutton can improve on his disappointing 2022. I'll be looking his way when I can for next season.
Target: Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
It's obvious why Boyd's target rate is lower than it "should" be: he's playing behind two elite receivers in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But he is so far below the line that I think he'll still probably represent a value going forward. Boyd really didn't have any huge games while Chase was out this season, but I would bet on that changing if he has another chance as the No. 2, based on how well he gets open.
Target: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
There may be no player we've written more about in this space than Johnson. The RTMs consistently indicated that Johnson was getting open at an elite level despite the production not coming -- that is, until the last couple of weeks. Still, with Kenny Pickett getting another year under his belt and the possibility of a new offense in Pittsburgh lingering, the numbers indicate that in a different situation Johnson can be a fantasy star. If I have the chance, I'm willing to make that high-upside bet.
Target: Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
From an opportunity standpoint Palmer benefitted from injuries to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But the second-year wideout also showed he has real ability with a 68 open score. And, if we assume a linear correlation between open score and target rate, we would expect a target rate of more like 23% than 19%. Over the course of the season, that adds up.
Seth Walder is in his sixth NFL season as a sports analytics writer at ESPN and previously covered the Jets and Giants for the New York Daily News.
NFL player tracking, also known as Next Gen Stats, is the capture of real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player and every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players' shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.