Making tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Geno Smith, Seahawks (versus Raiders). His performance this season is night-and-day improved upon either of his two seasons as a Jets starter (2013-14), his 2017 as a Giants backup or his three fill-in starts for the 2021 Seahawks. Smith has completed at least 64% of his pass attempts in all 10 games this season, the only player in the NFL who can claim that (and no other quarterback has more than seven total such games in 2022). That level of accuracy will suit him well against the Raiders, whose defense has allowed a league-high 71.5% completion rate, not to mention afforded quarterbacks a league-most 0.49 fantasy points per passing attempt. Russell Wilson (10.68 fantasy points) might've had a quiet game against this defense last week, but he was the exception rather than the rule, as every other quarterback the Raiders has faced has scored at least 16.70 points.
Others to like:
Justin Herbert (Chargers at Cardinals) got both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back in Week 11, and even if Williams' ankle issue that flared up costs him this week's game, Allen's return and Joshua Palmer's emergence gives the quarterback a multitude of options in the receiving game. Herbert also faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed a 20-point quarterback in four of the past five weeks.
Taylor Heinicke (Commanders, versus Falcons), who was a non-factor in fantasy in Weeks 10 and 11, should rebound against a Falcons defense that has struggled more against the pass than the run this season.
Matchup to avoid: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (versus Ravens). Though he improved his play in his final two games heading into the bye week, totaling 37.66 fantasy points, both games came against extremely favorable matchups (LV, @KC). Against tougher defenses, Lawrence has struggled mightily, as the three top-eight, schedule-adjusted matchups he has faced (@PHI, HOU, DEN) resulted in a combined 22.82 fantasy points. That's a problem when considering the Ravens' recent defensive performance, which has been much-improved since its Week 2 disaster against the Dolphins (42-38 loss), as four of the past five quarterbacks the Ravens have faced have been held beneath 14 fantasy points.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Jeff Wilson Jr., Dolphins (versus Texans). He has soared to the front of the Dolphins' backfield pecking order, playing 51% and 60% of the team's offensive snaps in his first two games for them, while absorbing 26 rushing attempts combined. That makes Wilson the preferred choice -- though backup Raheem Mostert, who played 45% and 28% of the offensive snaps and totaled 17 carries in those same games, is a viable flex play as well -- facing this highly favorable matchup. The Texans have afforded running backs the most Adjusted Fantasy Points Added (7.5) and PPR fantasy points per game (31.0) for the season, not to mention have surrendered two of the season's nine 35-point games in the past five weeks alone.
Others to like:
Rachaad White (Buccaneers, at Browns) could play another 65% of the offensive snaps regardless of Leonard Fournette's (hip) status, after a breakthrough Week 10, but even in a split arrangement, White stands out against a Browns defense that has seen four different running backs score at least 14.5 PPR fantasy points in just the past two weeks.
James Conner (Cardinals, versus Chargers) has had back-to-back strong performances and now faces a Chargers defense that has allowed 0.82 fantasy points per rushing attempt, second-most in the league.
Matchup to avoid: Dameon Pierce, Texans (at Dolphins). The Texans' offense looked dreadful in Week 11, and this is a tougher all-around opponent than the Commanders were in that game. Consider that the Dolphins have a strong offense that can pile up points, averaging a sixth-best 25.2 per game, coupled with a defense stronger against the run, the Texans' primary strength, than the pass. This team faced both Dalvin Cook (Week 6) and Nick Chubb (Week 10) in its past five games, and held the duo to a combined 30.4 PPR fantasy points on 28 touches.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Jakobi Meyers, Patriots (at Vikings). The Vikings' secondary has struggled mightily in recent weeks, as three of their four opponents since the bye have had multiple wide receivers score double-digit PPR fantasy points against them, with two of them having both wideouts reach the 20-point plateau (Cardinals in Week 8, Bills in Week 10). Cameron Dantzler Sr.'s ankle injury has him on injured reserve, and both Akayleb Evans (concussion) and Andrew Booth Jr. (knee) are iffy for the Thanksgiving evening game, depleting the team's depth. Meyers remains Mac Jones' go-to target in the receiving game, as he has a 27% target rate in the Patriots' past three games, 10th-highest in the league, so lock him in as a high-end fantasy WR3.
Others to like:
The only reason Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions, versus Bills) isn't the highlight pick above is that he's a well-known, universal fantasy starter, but this is an outstanding matchup well worth mention. The Bills, whose secondary continues to underperform without Tre'Davious White, have seen four different wide receivers score 17-plus PPR fantasy points against them in just the past three weeks.
Demarcus Robinson (Ravens, at Jaguars) has become the Ravens' de facto WR1 in recent weeks, and the opposing Jaguars have allowed a ninth-most-in-the-league 1.90 PPR fantasy points per target over the past five weeks alone.
Matchup to avoid: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers (at Browns). The Browns have been surprisingly good against wide receivers this season, their minus-0.8 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added 14th and minus-2.2 Adjusted FPA against WR1s fifth, and over the past five weeks those rankings have improved to second and third. In the past two weeks alone, they have faced a trio of wide receivers averaging at least 17.5 PPR fantasy points per game, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (Week 10) and Stefon Diggs (Week 11), and held them a combined 21.6 points beneath their seasonal averages. Where the Browns have been especially tough is against slot receivers, significant in Godwin's case because he has run 72% of his routes from the slot, as the three receivers the team has faced in the past four weeks who ran at least 10 routes from the slot, Tee Higgins (Week 8), Hill and Isaiah McKenzie (Week 11), combined for just 29.3 points.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Dawson Knox, Bills (at Lions). The Lions' defense is considerably worse against the pass than the run, but especially so at containing opposing tight ends. In four of their five games since the bye, they've seen an individual tight end score nine-plus PPR fantasy points, and check out some of the individuals who got there against them: Mike Gesicki (12.8 points in Week 8), Josiah Deguara (9.1, Week 9), Cole Kmet (23.4, Week 10). Knox has seen six and seven targets the past two weeks, his second-most (tied) and most in a game this season, and with the uptick in usage he should deliver TE1 fantasy numbers.
Others to like:
Gerald Everett (Chargers, at Cardinals), if healthy enough to play, could be asked to take on a decent share of the targets against a Cardinals defense that has allowed a league-most 2.28 PPR fantasy points per target to the position.
Foster Moreau (Raiders, at Seahawks) should benefit from a matchup with the Seahawks, whose 6.5 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added against the position this season are most in the league.
Matchup to avoid: Juwan Johnson, Saints (at 49ers). He's seeing a good amount of red zone work lately, with four targets in those situations in the past five weeks alone, but that merely makes him a touchdown-dependent fantasy play. Johnson offers little else facing a matchup as tough as this one, against a 49ers team that has held some of the position's best in check in recent weeks. Travis Kelce's 15.8 PPR fantasy points (on eight targets) in Week 7 were 6.5 beneath his season average, and Tyler Higbee managed only 3.5 points on six targets in Week 8.