Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
New York Jets running back Breece Hall is showing out on the tape. And he's posting the numbers, too, with 275 total yards in his past two games. The rookie is climbing in my rankings and fits as one of the top upgrades heading into the Week 6 fantasy football schedule.
We'll discuss the players to downgrade also, featuring a couple of wide receivers who are heavily rostered in ESPN leagues. Plus, we'll hit on the names you need to monitor this week and take a look at my notebook from the film room.
Upgrades
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
The dual-threat rookie has jumped to RB10 in my Week 6 rankings, with a matchup versus a Packers defense allowing 4.75 yards per carry (22nd in the NFL). Last Sunday, Hall out-touched Michael Carter, 20-12, in the Jets' running back rotation. And I'm all-in on the rookie this week given his increased usage (39 touches in his past two games) and his deployment in the Jets' system. Hall is a smooth runner who can be decisive between the tackles, with the short-area speed and vision to bounce the ball to the perimeter. And we know he can get loose out of the backfield in the pass game.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
Meyers posted a season-high 24.1 PPR points in the Week 5 win over the Lions. He has seen a total of 27 targets in three games played this season. An intermediate route runner, with the physical frame to play through contact, Meyers can work as a volume target for the Patriots in Week 6 versus the Browns. While we don't yet know the playing status of quarterback Mac Jones (ankle), I wouldn't sleep on backup Bailey Zappe. The rookie completed 17 of 21 passes against the Lions -- with Meyers catching 7 of 8 targets for 111 yards. Zappe sees it quickly from the pocket, with the subtle movements to climb and reset his throwing window. He can find the voids/matchups on schemed concepts, too. Meyers fits here as a WR3 with PPR upside.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
Mostert has now seen 17 or more touches in each of his past two games. So, we know he is getting No. 1 volume over Chase Edmonds in that Miami backfield. He's a savvy runner in Mike McDaniel's system, with the versatility to be utilized on multiple schemes and alignments (check the jet sweep touchdown in Week 5). Mostert posted 122 total yards -- and 19.2 PPR points -- this past Sunday against the Jets. And he gets another positive matchup versus the Vikings in Week 6. He's a flex play in both PPR and non-PPR formats.
Downgrades
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
I roster Wilson in two leagues. I love the dynamic ability after the catch. He has the vertical juice to win over the top, too. He's one of the top rookies in the league. However, where has the volume and production gone with Zach Wilson starting at quarterback in New York? In Weeks 1-3, with Joe Flacco under center, Wilson produced a breakout game of 30.2 PPR points and saw a total of 33 targets. In Weeks 4 and 5 with Wilson? Just 10 targets. You can still play the upside of Wilson here given his traits at the position, but I have the rookie ranked as WR37 this week versus the Green Bay secondary.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
I had a tough time ranking Johnson this week (WR24). He's seeing pretty consistent volume, with 10 or more targets in four of five games played this season, including 11 last week from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett in the blowout loss to the Bills. But he has failed to score a touchdown this season and has posted just one game of at least 16 PPR points. Plus, the Steelers get the Bucs' defense this week. You can bet on Tampa bringing some serious pressure to heat up Pickett, which absolutely disrupts pass game rhythm. Now, would I still start Johnson in Week 6? Yes. But he's probably down on that flex line for me.
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Allgeier can still be started as a fringe flex play in deeper leagues if you are stuck with players on a bye, but I would look for better options here given the Week 6 matchup versus the 49ers' defense. San Francisco is allowing just 3.0 yards per carry this season, best in the NFL. That's a nasty front seven, with a disruptive safety in Talanoa Hufanga, who will cut off the ball on the edge. He's a downhill thumper. And the Falcons' rookie running back doesn't give you much in PPR formats, as he has logged just two receptions on the season. Even with decent run game volume (23 carries over the past two weeks), Allgeier is a tough play for me in shallow leagues.
Players to monitor in Week 6
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
The Week 5 numbers don't jump here for Kmet (four receptions, 45 yards, 8.5 PPR points), but those were season highs for the Bears tight end. With quarterback Justin Fields taking the throws that were available this past Sunday, and using the tight end on middle-of-the-field concepts, will we start to see that production spike for Kmet? Chicago hosts Washington in the Thursday night game, so we'll find out right away.
Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jones saw season highs in targets (11), receptions (7) and receiving yards (111) in the Jags' Week 6 game versus Houston -- and that was with Zay Jones back on the field for Jacksonville. We know Marvin Jones is an experienced and detailed receiver in the route tree, but he had failed to top 40 yards receiving in his first four games of the season. Let's see if the volume remains up for Jones on Sunday versus the Colts.
More notes from the tape
I touched on Cardinals wide receiver Rondale Moore in my Week 6 streaming pickups column. Moore caught 7 of 8 targets in Week 5. He's a dynamic motion/movement player in Kliff Kingsbury's offense and he has a prime matchup versus the Seahawks' defense on Sunday.
Will Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale have an answer for Ravens tight end Mark Andrews? You need a tight end matchup player here in the secondary or a dedicated double on Andrews in passing situations. Take away those over/crossing routes, because that's where Lamar Jackson wants to go with the ball. Andrews has scored 22 or more PPR points in three of five games played this season.
Tough spot for Najee Harris managers. The Steelers running back averaged just 1.8 yards per carry in Week 5 versus the Bills' defense and has caught a total of just six passes in his past three games. Up next for Harris? It's the Bucs' defense on Sunday. You might want to look at better RB2 options for your lineup.
With New England's Damien Harris now out with a hamstring injury, Rhamondre Stevenson is up to RB13 this week in my PPR rankings. Stevenson dropped 19.5 PPR points on the Lions in Week 5, and we saw his ability to slip tacklers in that game. He's an easy mover at 230 pounds. Stevenson has also logged 10 receptions in his past three games. There's RB1 upside here.
The Raiders are on a bye this week, but don't be surprised if Josh Jacobs cracks the RB1 rankings in Week 7 when Vegas returns to play Houston. Given the amount of two-high safety looks the Raiders are seeing on offense right now, Jacobs is free to attack light run boxes. He has posted back-to-back games of at least 140 yards rushing, and the boost in receiving totals (five receptions in each of his past three games) has elevated his PPR status.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, yet he's a fringe QB1 in my rankings again this week. What's missing? The explosive plays. Rodgers is the league's best at identifying and throwing the one-on-one verticals. This offense, however, is built on the quick passing game right now.
I think you can play Geno Smith as a QB1 this week versus the Cardinals. Smith has now thrown seven touchdown passes in his past three games. Poise, confidence and rhythm from the pocket -- with the movement to climb and find his targets. He's pretty dialed in.
Matthew Stafford is still down in the QB2 tier of my rankings. The Rams can't protect consistently up front.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has that unit rolling in Dallas. Multiple fronts, pressures, schemed pass-rush matchups. They can hit the quarterback and take the ball away. The Cowboys get the Eagles this week on Sunday night.
Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. posted 113 total yards (on 14 touches) in the Week 5 game versus the Texans. He's an explosive player who just needs consistent volume.
Packers running back Aaron Jones hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 2, but I'm betting on Jones this Sunday versus the Jets' defense. More perimeter run schemes, pass game usage and red zone touches. He's my RB11 in the ranks.
Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert has been one of the most consistent players in my lineup this season. After posting 17.5 PPR points in the Week 5 win over Arizona, Goedert has now scored 11 or more PPR points in four straight games. And he's a critical player in the Eagles' route tree.
Kenneth Walker III's touchdown run versus the Saints in Week 5 is exactly what we saw on his college tape at Michigan State. Find daylight and go. Long speed. Walker is my RB19 this week against the Cardinals.