I've been covering fantasy football for quite some time now and have had the honor of meeting many fellow fantasy managers during various offseason occasions (a part of the job that should never be taken for granted, I might add).
Without fail, the most popular question I receive during these interactions is simple: "Who should I take first overall in my draft this year?"
It's a logical question and one that usually leads back to a similar answer: whoever the top-rated running back is going into that season, as the chat invariably pivots toward a discussion about the positional value of running backs compared to any other spot in fantasy football.
Yes, this offseason was, for the most part, the same: If you were to poll 100 people who are passionate about fantasy football, my suspicion is that somewhere between 90-95 of them would have cast a ballot for either Jonathan Taylor (most of them) or Christian McCaffrey (a few) to go No. 1 overall, with a handful opting for the otherworldly producer that is Cooper Kupp.
While it feels today like the dissenters who opted for Kupp were right, the focus of Field Pass this week is the dire state of running backs as things presently stand.
Entering Week 4, much of the direness was related to a simple lack of production. Taylor had a total of 19.4 fantasy points in Weeks 2 and 3, a figure that most managers would expect from their star on any given Sunday.
McCaffrey hadn't scored even 17 fantasy points in a game in Weeks 1-3, a start that had many CMC managers crying foul. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara had played in just two games and failed to score even 8.0 points in a game, Derrick Henry had back-to-back games to start the season with 8.5 points or fewer. The list goes on and on.
And then Week 4 happened. Adding injury to insult, we now have three more running backs that are dealing with injuries, including Taylor (we'll deep dive there in a moment). While we don't know for certain whether these players will be back or not this week, it feels possible that six of the top 26 running backs will be out because of injury this week: Taylor, Kamara, D'Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, David Montgomery and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Elite running backs are hard to find, especially this year. Let's look at the next players up in regards to the three new injuries that were suffered in Week 4:
Jonathan Taylor, Colts:
Javonte Williams, Broncos: Williams is out for the season because of a torn ACL, which is news that just flat stinks. He checks so many of the boxes of a potential star and we wish him the best in a full recovery. Melvin Gordon III may seem like the obvious next man up, but ball security has been a major issue for him, as Gordon has fumbled on five of his last 44 carries. The most recent one against the Raiders was returned for a game-altering touchdown and led to Mike Boone seeing more opportunities following Williams' injury. My belief is that Gordon will get the shot to be the starter in Week 5, as he was the clear No. 2 back prior to Williams' injury, but his leash is exceedingly short. He cracks my top 20 for running backs this week, but Boone and recent signee Latavius Murray bear watching. Gordon has to hold onto the football to hold onto the job.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons: Patterson is set to miss at least four games after being placed on injured reserve on Monday, leaving an inexperienced Falcons backfield quite thin. Rookie Tyler Allgeier figures to be the lead back, with first-year man Caleb Huntley also seeing some work (Damien Williams is also on injured reserve right now). While the Bucs didn't show it in Week 4, they are not a defensive front that I'd like to run against, making Allgeier a flex only and Huntley a stash in deeper leagues, but a stay-away in Week 5. Allgeier should work his way into flex consideration in 10-12 team leagues in future weeks with better matchups.
Stock-up wide receivers (and a bonus back)
The deepest position in fantasy football is wide receiver, despite some stars who are struggling this season (largely because of their quarterback play, as is the case for both Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin), but the pool should continue to grow even deeper. Let's take a look at a few wideouts who caught my eye in Week 4 -- and a running back, for good measure.
Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers: Godwin was on the field in Week 1, but a hamstring injury suffered in that game quickly shelved him for two straight contests. To see him on the field in Week 4 was a good sign, to see him catch seven passes was a great sign. But perhaps the most important sign of all: Godwin ran 45 routes on pass plays in Week 4, second most in the entire league. What that tells us is clear and apparent: he's back to a full go. With Godwin's propensity for volume, he's a lineup lock for me as a top-20 wide receiver consideration weekly.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers: There are two critical numbers for Doubs: 89 and 96. Those are the percentages of snaps he has played over the past two weeks, respectively, while becoming a fixture for the Green Bay offense. He has now found the end zone in back-to-back games as well, looking like a preferred target for Aaron Rodgers. He's the Green Bay pass-catcher I value most right now as a flex consideration in 12-team leagues.
Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys: Gallup made his season debut in Week 4 and exceeded expectations right away. While Gallup's touchdown was the play that made the highlight reels, his snap count of 64% was perhaps the most encouraging for fantasy purposes. Noah Brown remained the No. 2 wideout, but the Cowboys relied much more heavily on three-receiver sets in Week 4 than in Week 3. I'd bet on them continuing that approach or -- if they opt for more two-TE sets -- we'll see Gallup as the No. 2 in time. With an increased role and the nearing return of Dak Prescott, he'll be a top-35 play sooner than later. While I'd likely sit Gallup for one more week, he was available in more than 50% of ESPN leagues to begin this week and is a valuable add.
George Pickens, WR, Steelers: Pickens' talent is unquestioned -- he is a walking SportsCenter Top 10 play -- but his opportunity and quarterback play have been ... questionable. After just five total targets in Weeks 1 and 2, Pickens had 15 over the past two weeks and had a career-high six catches for 102 yards in Week 4. With Kenny Pickett taking over the offense, I expect improved overall output (it can't get much worse, to be fair) and Pickens is the exact type of bench stash you love to have right now.
Breece Hall, RB, Jets: To be clear, I didn't have a better spot to weave Hall into this column, so he gets the bonus-player treatment even though he isn't a wideout. But his usage spiked in Week 4 with a decisive snap edge over Michael Carter (45-29) and a career-high 17 carries. We wrote about Hall in Week 1 and said it might be a slower start than anticipated because of Carter's presence, but that in time Hall would surpass Carter. That time ... is now. He's a lineup lock for me in Week 5.
Have two star QBs been born?
Tucked inside the top 10 highest-scoring quarterbacks so far this season are two names that I don't recall reading more than a few words about in fantasy previews this preseason: Jared Goff (QB5) and Geno Smith (QB9). They squared off last Sunday in what may have been the most exciting game of the NFL season to date (12 total touchdowns scored and seemingly every player that was started in that game crushed it).
The only question left to ask is, of course: Have we reached the point where both quarterbacks are must-starts?
Let's unpack them individually, even if the question was a bit tongue-in-cheek.
Smith has back-to-back games with more than 300 passing yards, which followed consecutive games below 200 passing yards. Unsurprisingly, those two boom games came against teams in the bottom eight of pass defense, while his two games under 200 yards came against top-five passing defenses.
Smith draws a Saints defense that is among the league's stingiest (ninth-fewest passing yards allowed per game), which has him outside my starting-quarterbacks range in Week 5. I net out here: Smith is a matchup-dependent streaming type, as his accuracy has been off the charts, he's showing poise, he has enough ability to add value with his legs (49 yards and a touchdown on the ground in Week 4) and he has great receivers. I'm super impressed with what he has done this year and am thrilled he's getting this opportunity.
Perhaps more importantly for fantasy purposes, Smith has kept DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett very much afloat this season: Lockett's 27 catches are tied for sixth best in the NFL, while Metcalf is now inside the top 20 in both yards and catches this season. Both are strong weekly considerations.
Meanwhile, Goff is the only player in the NFL with multiple games of four or more passing touchdown this season and the Lions lead the league in scoring. Go figure! Goff has both a higher floor and ceiling so far than Smith, recording at least 13.5 fantasy points in every game (Smith had a Week 2 dud with just 6.08 points) along with two games of 20-plus points this season (to Smith's one).
The offense Goff plays in has a ton of talent when fully healthy -- that's not the case at the moment -- and has shown that even depth-level players can really step up. And, notably, they need to: While Detroit leads the NFL in points scored this season, they also lead the NFL in points allowed. Shootouts and/or garbage-time points are almost a given for Goff weekly.
Despite adding nothing with his legs (a total of 1.6 points this season), Goff's average of 37.6 passing attempts per game and useful group of offensive talent are reasons to buy in on his production thus far.
The depth of quarterback this season has proven to be far weaker than anticipated coming into the season, so I've got Goff just outside my top 10 for Week 5 against a Patriots defense that presents a stiffer test than the last three weeks. I also expect that the game will be a slower-paced affair than what has transpired this season, as the Patriots could be starting rookie QB Bailey Zappe and looking to grind the game out on offense rather than letting it fly. Through four games, the Lions and their opponents have combined for 281 total points, the most ever for any team in its first four games. If the over/under is set at 70.25 (the average so far), I'd be banging the under.
Goff and Smith represent an important reality this year that I think is important to circle back to: The quarterback position has been weaker overall than anticipated. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford were all top-six finishers at the position last season. While Brady looks like he's back on track after a great Week 4, Rodgers and Stafford are still fighting for traction. Russell Wilson and Derek Carr are other examples of quarterbacks who seemingly had a path to weekly locks, but have combined for just one 20-point game.
If you drafted a Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts, the quarterback equation is simple: play your star. Many others have proven trickier to evaluate each week, meaning the idea of leaning on a Geno Smith or Jared Goff for a week, two or three at a time is more viable this year than ever expected.