Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
After watching the tape, let's talk about the Week 5 fantasy matchups. My upgrades, downgrades and a couple of wide receivers we need to monitor. Plus, I'll open up my notebook from the film room. Geno Smith, Miles Sanders, George Kittle and more in there.
So, let's start things off with a rookie wide receiver who is seeing consistent pass-game volume from quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the Green Bay route tree.
Week 5 upgrades
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers
Let's go with the rookie this week. Doubs has logged 13 receptions in his past two games (on 16 targets). He's seeing consistent volume -- and opportunity -- in this Packers offense. Doubs is finding the end zone, too, as he has posted a touchdown reception in each of the past two games versus the Bucs and Patriots. And we really have to look at his usage in the route tree. The receiver is seeing targets at all three levels of the field. Put him in your lineup as a WR3 for the matchup against the Giants' defense in London.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow, my QB6 this week, has posted back-to-back games with 20 or more fantasy points, throwing for multiple touchdowns in each game. And I like this matchup versus a Ravens defense allowing an average of 315.3 passing yards per game (most in the NFL). Burrow will see a mix of man and zone coverage in this one, and I believe the Bengals will have pass-game answers for the Ravens' split-safety schemes. Carve out those coverage voids for Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on second- and third-level throws.
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Thielen is climbing in my ranks because of his pass-game deployment and target volume in the Vikings' offense. In the past two games, Thielen has caught 14 of 17 targets; he has posted two straight weeks of at least 15 PPR points; and he will have opportunities to work the second level versus the Bears' defense on Sunday. Find the zone windows and separate underneath versus man coverage. Given his lack of explosive-play ability and touchdown production, Thielen has much more PPR upside this week as a WR3 in deeper leagues.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Even with the Damien Harris getting his touches in the game plan, I still like Stevenson as an RB2 this week versus the Lions. Through four weeks, Detroit is allowing an average of 30.7 fantasy points to opposing running backs (31st in the league). This is a run front the Patriots can expose, and we are seeing an uptick for Stevenson as a receiving target. Over the past two games, Stevenson has caught eight of 10 targets. Backfield releases here to work underneath on high-percentage throws.
Week 5 downgrades
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I roster Harris in my big home league, RB1 in my lineup on draft day. However, Harris has yet to post a game this season with more than 14 PPR points. The pass-game usage is down and Harris has logged just one rushing touchdown on the season. Remember, Harris is a volume grinder. That's what I see on the tape. He's not an explosive runner who can consistently attack the perimeter. And without the scoring opportunities, or the receiving upside, he's going to slide down the ranks this week into the midtier RB2 range. I'm hoping the shift to rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett creates more juice in this Pittsburgh offense. But it's hard to bet on that this week with a matchup versus the Bills defense. That's a nasty unit.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford managed just 6.76 fantasy points in the Monday night loss to the 49ers, and it won't get easier for the Rams' quarterback -- behind an O-line dealing with injuries -- versus the Dallas pass rush in Week 5. This season, Stafford has two more interceptions (six) than TD passes (four). And the Rams are struggling to scheme for this pass game outside of Cooper Kupp. Keep Stafford on the bench for this one.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
I'm really struggling with Conner this year in my lineup. Drafted as my flex option, Conner has posted three straight games of subpar production. He's been inefficient as a runner, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry during this stretch, and he has failed to cash in on red zone rushing attempts. Plus, Conner has totaled only eight receptions in Weeks 2-4 after logging five in the season opener. He's a touchdown-dependent player right now, with a Week 5 matchup versus a fast Eagles defense.
Players to monitor
Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears
Is Mooney back? Maybe. The Bears' wide receiver caught four passes for 94 yards in the Week 4 loss to the Giants. We saw the deep-ball throw from Justin Fields here, too. Single-high coverage, hold the safety and take the outside one-on-one. I need to see more in terms of overall target volume for Mooney before he climbs back into my rankings, though. Chicago will have opportunities to scheme for the wide receiver versus the Vikings' split-safety zone coverages this Sunday.
Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
In his first game back after an ACL injury in '21, Gallup caught two of three targets for 24 yards, including a touchdown. That target number needs to spike, however, to get Gallup into your lineups. And we most likely need to wait on the return of Dak Prescott here. Remember, Gallup is the outside, vertical-stretch target in the Cowboys' offensive scheme.
More notes from the tape
Jared Goff should be rostered as a matchup-dependent starter given the high throwing volume of the Lions' offense. Goff has now attempted at least 34 passes in each game this season, and he has 11 touchdown passes after four weeks. Detroit gets the New England defense this Sunday. You can play Goff as fringe QB1 here.
Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert saw 17 touches in the Week 4 game versus the Bengals. Versatile deployment in Mike McDaniel's offense. He's my RB30 this week, a possible flex play versus the Jets.
I wrote about Geno Smith this week in my streaming pickups column: Pass-game efficiency, rhythm throws and vertical shots. Smith is completing more than 77% of his passes this season.
The Week 4 tape on Packers running back Aaron Jones is really good. Perimeter rushes. Speed to the second level. Contact balance at the point of attack. Jones averaged 6.9 yards per carry in the win over the Patriots. We just need Jones to find the end zone to boost those fantasy totals.
Miles Sanders posted a season-high 29.6 PPR points in the Eagles' Week 4 win over Jacksonville. In a weather game, he got high rushing volume and the Philly offensive line moved defenders off the ball all day long. The Eagles are powerful and agile up front.
The Chargers "boot hot" scheme in the red zone is fantasy gold for Austin Ekeler managers. Play-action with Ekeler releasing quick to the flat ("hot"). Easy money.
Don't let one game -- in bad weather versus a top-tier pass rush -- cloud your fantasy outlook on Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence. It's a good matchup for the second-year pro versus the Houston defense. He's my QB13 this week.
Texans rookie Dameon Pierce can get loose in the open field. He was moving on that 75-yard touchdown run in Week 4. Let's get some more perimeter carries for the rookie.
If you roster Marquise Brown (like I do), then you want Kliff Kingsbury to continue calling slot fades for the wide receiver.
I really don't want to drop George Kittle in my rankings. He's too talented. Rugged after the catch. The system fit is ideal. And he's a Hawkeye. But we need to see a bump in target share for the 49ers' tight end. Kittle has seen a total of nine targets in his past two games.
I'm not going to bury a player after just four weeks of football, but the tape isn't great on Rams wide receiver Allen Robinson II. Yeah, he still has the short-area quicks to get free off the snap. But the production -- and overall offensive usage -- is really poor right now. I missed on this one (so far).
Seahawks tight end Will Dissly has caught a touchdown in each of his past two games, with at least three receptions in both matchups. A great ball from Geno Smith on the red zone touchdown in Week 4. Run the seam.
Dallas Goedert has scored at least 11 PPR points in his past three games. And the Eagles will scheme for the tight end. You can continue to play Goedert as a lower-tier TE1 this week versus the Cardinals.
Alec Pierce has logged three explosive-play receptions (20 yards or more) in his past two games. Isolation throws on vertical routes. And he has the physical profile to develop into a viable red zone target. Something to monitor here for managers in non-PPR formats.