Each Friday during the 2022 NFL and fantasy football season, Eric Karabell will bring his always-reasonable perspective to highlight the biggest fantasy football storylines heading into the weekend's games.
Houston Texans WR Brandin Cooks and Carolina Panthers WR DJ Moore entered this season having combined for a notable nine seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards between them. So far, each has played in three games and neither looks much like a 1,000-yard receiver. Cooks had 22 receiving yards in Week 3. Moore had one catch for 2 yards. It's actually a bit impressive that neither shows up yet on the most-dropped list among wide receivers.
That might soon change if Cooks and Moore don't get going this week in home games against the Chargers and Cardinals, respectively, and even if we acknowledge this might not be their respective faults, it doesn't matter. Fantasy football managers don't care about reasoning. Either you're helping their fantasy teams or not. Neither of these proven wide receivers with multiple top-20 PPR finishes on their recent records enter Week 4 among the top 50 wide receivers in PPR formats. They are on the proverbial hot seat.
With Cooks, impressively a 1,000-yard receiver for four different NFL franchises (Saints, Patriots, Rams, Texans), second-year quarterback Davis Mills is off to a rough start, completing less than 58% of his passes, which is even more troubling considering he's barely throwing the football downfield. His average yards per attempt is down from 6.8 as a rookie to 6.2 this season. Cooks is still getting half the wide receiver targets on his own team, but there's little efficiency here. Nico Collins emerging as a second WR might be a positive thing. Cooks remains a WR3 in our rankings for this week.
Moore has to deal with QB Baker Mayfield, which we didn't think would be a major issue because last year's Carolina passers were Sam Darnold, Cam Newton and P.J. Walker. Not exactly Montana and Young, eh? Moore caught 93 of their passes for 1,157 yards, his third consecutive season over 1,000, though with only four TDs each time. Robbie Anderson -- whom fantasy managers are no longer intrigued by -- was second last season with 53 catches and 519 yards. It's all Moore's show, and defenses know it. This week, he faces effective Arizona cover corner Byron Murphy Jr. Moore has fallen to more of a WR4 now, but dropping him remains premature. For now.
Bye weeks start in Week 6, and while it's understandable that impatient fantasy managers might move on from these established, reliable wide receivers soon, it is a bit hard to believe that there are safer options on free agency. Zay Jones and Greg Dortch are the most-added wide receivers for the past week. Adding them for Cooks and Moore just feels wrong. Try to be patient, even if Cooks and Moore struggle again.
Quarterback
Denver Broncos disappointment Russell Wilson really should produce nice numbers against the winless Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. If he doesn't, then he will continue to see his roster percentage drop below the 90% figure. Yeah, his slow start is surprising. Wilson has a running game and intriguing young wide receivers to target. He's properly protected, for the most part. How soon before we're regularly ranking Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff ahead of him? Wow, just reading that sentence is stunning.
As for Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Tom Brady, he remains rostered in 94% of ESPN standard leagues, and his situation is different than that of Wilson. It would take more than a month of below-average statistics to drop Brady. Let's assume the return of Mike Evans -- and hopefully Chris Godwin -- gets him back on a 5,000-yard pace with myriad touchdowns. The schedule eases up after Sunday night's home game with the Chiefs.
After Wilson and Brady, what other QBs are really on the hot seat? We know the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons will eventually turn their starting jobs over to rookies, though it might be a while. There might be some pressure on Indianapolis Colts newcomer Matt Ryan, because his backup Nick Foles won a Super Bowl, but it's early to add Foles in superflex formats. Andy Dalton could soon replace injured Saint Jameis Winston. Fantasy managers have already moved on from Chicago Bears sophomore Justin Fields. That seat is no longer hot.
Running back
Perhaps many will view this as a bit odd and way too premature, but the way Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is playing -- better than his MVP season! -- can it be possible for J.K. Dobbins to achieve great statistical heights? He gets a pass for his season debut in Week 3, when he turned seven carries into 23 yards. Dobbins looked fine, in brief activity. The Ravens had another 1,000-yard rusher the same season Jackson won the MVP in 2019. It was Mark Ingram II. He also rushed for 10 touchdowns. It can be done. Fantasy managers want to see Dobbins play well right away.
Back to the Washington Commanders yet again, because Antonio Gibson hasn't run well the past two weeks, though he scored touchdowns each week. Context matters. Gibson's Week 3 touchdown run came in the closing seconds in garbage time. He's playing a minimal role in the passing game, mainly thanks to J.D. McKissic. We keep mentioning rookie Brian Robinson because Washington wants him involved, and he might come off the PUP list for Week 5 and see an opening to legitimate volume.
A few other names to watch: What if the Bears' David Montgomery plays through an ankle injury and Khalil Herbert still outshines him? Montgomery got hurt early in the Week 3 game and Herbert ran wild. This is not quarterback, where the franchise is hugely invested. We also continue to watch the timeshare with the Los Angeles Rams, though not too intently, because Darrell Henderson Jr. looks like waiver-wire material.
Wide receiver/tight end
Chase Claypool scored 11 touchdowns as a Steelers rookie in 2020. We knew it was unlikely to last based on low volume, but still, for Claypool to have two touchdowns in 18 games over the past two seasons is quite the change in direction and value. The Steelers really need to do a better job involving Claypool. Only four teams average fewer passing yards per game than Pittsburgh, and Diontae Johnson isn't sharing much.
We watch the Kansas City Chiefs each week to see if Patrick Mahomes' preseason words about a wide receiver committee remain prophetic. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 10 catches and has yet to surpass 50 receiving yards in a game. JuJu Smith-Schuster has only one more target, but neither has scored a touchdown. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is topping Valdes-Scantling in catches and receiving yards and has two touchdowns. This is an odd situation.
Back to New England: Hunter Henry caught 50 passes for 603 yards and nine touchdowns last season, assuaging concerns that he and fellow newcomer Jonnu Smith would be able to statistically coexist. Smith was not a fantasy factor. This season is different. Smith is more involved, though not exactly someone fantasy managers can rely on yet. Henry is the most-dropped tight end in ESPN leagues, and perhaps past hot seat territory. We'll see where Brian Hoyer throws the football this week!