Making those tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which of them to start, my advice is to start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly NFL matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For Week 4, these maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of the matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position in 2021. Remember, teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
The reason for using my personal rankings right now, rather than year-to-date totals, is that two weeks' worth of defensive numbers don't provide an adequate sample with which to judge performance. Once three weeks are in the books, we'll begin using 2022 data as well as my personal rankings to adjust for the still-limited sample, then beginning in Week 6 (five weeks in the books), we'll rank only by what the numbers say, and each subsequent week will provide a snapshot of the most recent five weeks.
A couple of caveats before we start: Take the 2021 data with a heaping dose of salt, as the rankings are much more important. Additionally, matchups are only one ingredient to the lineup-setting process, as not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight
Marcus Mariota, Falcons (versus Browns). Mobile quarterbacks bring advantages to fantasy teams, in that their rushing prowess provides a stable statistical base -- the oft-cited "high floor" -- from which to build. Mariota, while sporting a troubling, tied-for-the-league's-most six turnovers (3 interceptions, 3 lost fumbles), has shown good mobility thus far, with a fourth-best-among-quarterbacks 17.2 fantasy points with his legs. That bodes well for him against a Browns defense that has allowed a league-leading 1.54 points per rushing attempt to quarterbacks through three weeks, as both Baker Mayfield (Week 1) and Mitch Trubisky (Week 3) ran in touchdowns against this defense. Tossing Joe Flacco (Week 2) into the mix, the Browns have afforded quarterbacks the 10th-most fantasy points so far, and it's not like any of those passers is any more trusted for our purposes than Mariota. He's a strong QB2/superflex play, available in nearly three-quarters of ESPN leagues.
Others to like
Jared Goff (Lions, versus Seahawks). He is fantasy's QB11 (55.42 points) to date, might need to shoulder more of the load with D'Andre Swift (ankle, shoulder) questionable at best, and draws a Seahawks defense that has graded a top-eight matchup through three weeks.
Baker Mayfield (Panthers, versus Cardinals). Mayfield is a worthwhile QB2/superflex streamer going up against a Cardinals defense that has afforded quarterbacks a league-high 0.61 fantasy points per passing attempt.
Matchup to avoid
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (at Eagles). I'm as impressed as anyone by Lawrence's second-year progress, but he's no star ... yet. This is one of those prove-it matchups, a game in which continued Lawrence success might cement his status as a weekly top-15 quarterback with matchups-driven QB1 potential, but also one that could temper some of the enthusiasm surrounding him the past two weeks. The Eagles have been one of the best-performing defenses against the pass through three weeks, almost entirely thanks to the stellar performance of their outside starting cornerbacks, Darius Slay (second-best minus-13.3 Targeted EPA, per Next Gen Stats) and James Bradberry (third-best minus-10.7 Targeted EPA). Lawrence hasn't done much with his legs thus far, attempting only eight rushing attempts, but he might need to in this game. Regardless, I'm hoping for either a more proven, or stronger-matchup quarterback in my Week 4 lineups.
Running backs
Matchups highlight
Dameon Pierce, Texans (versus Chargers). It's a fun week for plug-and-play running backs, with several backups-turned-(prospective) starters who graced the top of the most-added list now having the good fortune of dream matchups (monitor their teams' injury situations, of course). Pierce gets the zag-where-others-zig nod here, however, in part because of his rapidly expanding role, but also his beneath-the-radar, high-ceiling matchup. In the past two weeks, he has played 63% and 60% of the Texans' offensive snaps while absorbing 15-of-18 and 20-of-24 team rushing attempts, clearly relegating Rex Burkhead to passing-down-back status. Now Pierce faces a Chargers defense that, despite its supposedly ferocious pass rush, hasn't fared well against running backs, surrendering the seventh-most total PPR fantasy points to the position (79.1). Most notably, four different running backs have managed at least 10 points against this defense (Brandon Bolden, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Etienne Jr. and James Robinson), with the latter, Robinson, dropping the most (20.6) from what is very much a Pierce-like role.
Others to like
Jamaal Williams (Lions, versus Seahawks). Williams is the first plug-and-play running back with a dream matchup, as his seven goal-to-go carries are tied for the league's most, and he now faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed three scores already in those situations.
Khalil Herbert (Bears, at Giants). Herbert is the second, and if he's needed to spell David Montgomery, he'll be in for a big day against a Giants defense that afforded 25.0 points combined to Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in Week 3. ...
Rashaad Penny (Seahawks, at Lions). This is a RB2 sleeper going up against a Lions defense that has seen six opposing running backs score 11.2-plus PPR fantasy points against them.
Matchup to avoid
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (at Buccaneers). Perhaps an obvious pick after he amassed precisely zero rushing yards last week, not to mention has played beneath a 45% snap share in each of his three games, Edwards-Helaire has nevertheless totaled a "fools-gold"-like 53.1 PPR fantasy points, fourth-best at the position for the season. That might cause some to slot him in as a flex, though his schedule the next month is one of the worst a running back can draw (he'll get LV, BUF, @SF and a bye from Weeks 5-8), beginning with this one against a tough-as-nails Buccaneers defense. Elliott, Pollard, AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones each was held beneath six PPR fantasy points by the Buccaneers, the group combining for only 21.6 points. Edwards-Helaire is part of a probable committee, destined to deliver a similarly forgettable, committee-like output in this game.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight
Gabe Davis, Bills (at Ravens). He played a whopping 86 of the Bills' 90 offensive snaps, and ran a staggering 63 routes, in his Week 3 return from an ankle injury, a level of usage that tempers some of the worry about his injury and the so-so fantasy output (6.7 PPR fantasy points). That's not to say that Davis will repeat those levels of usage this week, but it's clear he'll be heavily involved yet again, facing a Ravens defense that has allowed 13.5 more PPR fantasy points to wide receivers than any other unit. This is likely to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game -- its 51½ over/under is the week's highest, after all -- and that means plenty of opportunities for the perimeter receiver, a role that has fueled a trio of 20-plus PPR fantasy points against the Ravens already (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Week 2, DeVante Parker in Week 3).
Others to like
Brandon Aiyuk (49ers, versus Rams). Aiyuk scored 16.7 PPR fantasy points against the Rams in Week 18 of last season, and this year's defense isn't nearly as good as last year's, having surrendered five games of 17-plus PPR fantasy points to the position already.
Elijah Moore (Jets, at Steelers). He might finally be primed for a breakthrough, as a perimeter receiver going up against a Steelers defense that has allowed at least 23 PPR fantasy points to a largely perimeter receiver in each of its first three games.
Matchup to avoid
Rashod Bateman, Ravens (versus Bills). The Bills have been dealing with a multitude of injuries on defense, including missing cornerbacks Tre'Davious White and Dane Jackson, safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer and defensive tackle Ed Oliver in Week 3, which made it all the more impressive that they limited the Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle to 15.1 PPR fantasy points and Tyreek Hill to 5.3 points in that game. What stands out on their side is their tendency to rein in vertical passes and big plays; the team led the NFL with only 25 receptions and no touchdowns allowed (everyone else afforded at least three) on throws at least 15 yards downfield in 2021, and they've allowed only six such receptions through three weeks this year. Bateman is the Ravens' deep threat, a boom-or-bust type who doesn't match up well against a defense like this.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight
David Njoku, Browns (at Falcons). Similarly to last week's pick, Tyler Higbee, Njoku has seen a surprisingly decent amount of work in the Cleveland offense, at least relative to preseason expectations. He has an 18% target share (16-of-88), a team-high five red zone targets, two of them on end zone tosses, the result of which is the ninth-most PPR fantasy points at his position (31.8). Now Njoku faces a Falcons defense that, while skilled at cornerback (but ultimately underperforming), has struggled mightily when it has a safety or linebacker covering the tight end. Higbee himself scored 14.1 points against the Falcons in Week 2, with Will Dissly scoring 12.4 last week, and you can be sure that cornerbacks Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell will probably spend more of their time in this game covering Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones than Njoku.
Others to like
T.J. Hockenson (Lions, versus Seahawks). Hockenson might be one of the position's biggest disappointments to date, but he's aligned for a rebound game against a Seahawks defense that has allowed 2.0 PPR fantasy points per target to tight ends (fourth-most).
Dawson Knox (Bills, at Ravens). Knox should get a decent amount of opportunity against a badly struggling Ravens secondary.
Matchup to avoid
Irv Smith Jr., Vikings (at Saints). He came back to earth in a big way in Week 3, following up his 14.6 PPR fantasy point outburst against the Eagles in Week 2 with a 5.2 point performance on six targets against a bad Lions defense. Now Smith faces a Saints defense that is notoriously tough on tight ends, having held Kyle Pitts to a combined 15.9 PPR fantasy points on 19 targets in three career meetings (including in Week 1), not to mention all but two tight ends to fewer than 10 points all of last season (Knox scored 18.2 against them in Week 12, while Dallas Goedert scored 11.2 in Week 11). Smith is a mere matchups type at this stage of his career, and this one makes him a definite sit.