For the fantasy football player, success in daily fantasy formats comes down to your ability to find value, to identify players who are faced with great matchups, and to maximize the relationships among the players on your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are this week's best buys on the fantasy football schedule?
Each week, I'll go through each offensive position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups, as well as some of the better team defenses for you to select in order to round out those fantasy rosters. These are usually players who are getting as much volume as possible, while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool play. And while things may change between this posting and game time, I'll do whatever I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
With all of that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 4.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens: Allen has been "as advertised" through the first three weeks of the season, scoring over 30 DraftKings points in each game. The Bills come into Week 4 with the highest implied team total at 27.5 expected points as they square off against a Ravens pass defense that has allowed opponents to be on target with 80.8% of their deep passes (the third-highest percentage in the league). Allen has accrued over 325 total yards and over 25 completions in all three games this season, making him a perfectly stackable QB option in Week 4 tournaments.
Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Hurts has been the top cash-game quarterback seemingly every week since last season -- and nothing is different today. The rushing floor he provides gives us a very comfortable spot in cash games, but it's his passing ability in this revamped Eagles offense that gives us ceiling opportunity in tournaments as well. Jacksonville is allowing the fifth-most yards per catch after the reception this season, so big games from Hurts' three key pass-catchers could be on tap.
Jared Goff ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks: I'm about as shocked as you are that I'm writing up Goff here, but it's 2022, so I guess nothing should shock me anymore. The Seahawks are allowing a league-high 12.7 yards per completion this year and own the third-worst 3rd-down defense in the league, which could help keep the Lions on the field. Detroit has the third-highest implied team total this weekend with 26.5 expected points, which typically correlates well with a quarterback's fantasy scoring.
Marcus Mariota ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns: While we're at it, why don't we just go ahead and add Mariota to the list as well. Mariota has exceeded fantasy expectations at his DraftKings salary in all three weeks so far this year. His rushing ability, combined with two very stackable options in the passing game (Drake London and Kyle Pitts) make Mariota an extremely viable tournament play this weekend. Using him will allow you access to one-offs and secondary stacks that will cost a lot of salary around this extremely budget-friendly tournament stack.
Running backs
Jonathan Taylor ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: Through three weeks, high-dollar running backs have not been paying off all that often. However, that's something I think will start correcting in Week 4. Tennessee has allowed 14 red zone drives (second-most in the league) and in the Colts' two close games this season, Taylor has logged over 20 carries and five-plus targets in both games.
Jamaal Williams ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks: Williams had already been gifted the extremely valuable short-yardage role on the Lions, with over 40% of RB snaps and touches -- and that was when D'Andre Swift was healthy. With Swift on the shelf, Williams projects to play on over 70% of RB snaps, getting those touches for the Lions in a home game where they are favored by 6.5 points over an extremely beatable Seahawks defense. The Seahawks have allowed 13 red zone trips, which is tied for third-most in the league. For his career, in games where he has gotten over 15 touches, Williams averages 102.5 yards from scrimmage and 0.7 touchdowns.
Khalil Herbert ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Chicago Bears at New York Giants: Herbert will step into David Montgomery's role after Montgomery had to leave Week 3's game due to ankle and knee injuries. Before he went down on the second drive of Sunday's game, Montgomery had ranked third in "percentage of team RB touches" this season. The Giants are playing on a short week and have allowed the most RB yards per carry after first contact in 2022. In his six career games where he has logged at least 10 touches, Herbert has scored four touchdowns and has cleared 110 total yards three times.
Ezekiel Elliott ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders: The Commanders have been a run-funnel defense all year, allowing 5.3 yards per RB carry. Tony Pollard has made the flashier plays over the last two weeks, but Elliott has been extremely solid and has a much higher TD projection, based upon his far-greater usage in inside-the-5 carries (compared to Pollard at the same DraftKings salary).
Wide receivers
Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens: Long-time readers know how much I like paying up to be contrarian, but I'm not sure how contrarian paying up for Diggs will be in cash games this week. In tournaments, double-stacking Allen with Diggs and someone else like Gabe Davis is going to be cost-restrictive, which will cause us to have to find value elsewhere. Still, the ceiling of that trio is unlike any other on the slate. Baltimore is allowing the second-most yards per deep pass. In Diggs' last six games, he has 17 red zone targets and 14 end zone targets -- both of which lead the NFL.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: The Colts offense has been a little bit spotty recently, but with 27 targets in two games against Tennessee last season and over 31% of the Colts receiving yards in each of his last five outings, Pittman is a very solid, high-floor/high-ceiling play in Week 4.
CeeDee Lamb ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders: As of Thursday morning, all signs point to Cooper Rush making another start for the Cowboys. That's not a bad thing for Lamb considering the 22 targets he's amassed in Rush's first two starts. The Commanders are allowing the second-most yards per deep completion (33.9 per catch). Lamb provides a tremendous target floor with big-play/big-splash upside for tournaments this week.
Diontae Johnson ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets: Johnson is nothing more than a target hog -- which is why I absolutely adore him on DraftKings. The Jets are allowing the second-most yards per WR target in the league and have allowed a league-high six TD catches to wideouts. Including last year's playoff loss against Kansas City, Johnson has now seen six straight games with double-digit targets. So far this season, two wide receivers have seen double-digit targets against the Jets and both of them scored touchdowns (Amari Cooper and Ja'Marr Chase).
Also considering
Keep an eye on the Greg Dortch/Rondale Moore situation for the Arizona Cardinals. The Carolina Panthers are allowing the seventh-highest opponent adjusted slot completion percentage, and Dortch has caught 20 of his 23 targets this season out of the slot -- including a catch of 20-plus yards in all three games. Moore is a fantastic value at $3,800 on DraftKings if he plays. Assuming A.J. Green does not play, Dortch should still be used out of the slot and Moore would likely be utilized as an outside receiver in Green's usual spot.
Tight ends
Mark Andrews ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills: Andrews is priced at a very restrictive point this week, as he should be. On slates where Travis Kelce is available in addition to Andrews, there are multiple tight ends with a realistic 30-point ceiling. However, with Kelce playing on Sunday night, Andrews is far and away the highest-ceiling tight end on the main slate. Andrews saw four red zone targets last week and two end zone targets in Week 2. Without multiple, capable wide receivers or running backs to target, Andrews has gotten the most predictable and reliable service at the short, intermediate, and deep levels on the route tree. The end result is a tremendous start to 2022 that correlates with Lamar Jackson's fantasy-MVP pace.
Kyle Pitts ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns: One thing that I absolutely loved to see last weekend was the 42.1% market share of targets that Mariota sent Pitts' way. Previously, his career-high was 27.3% of his QB's targets, which is far too low. Also, Pitts has a unique skill set that he brings to the TE position in terms of his average depth of target, which is up 38.1% over last year. The big plays are coming and the big games will be coming along with them. As long as the underlying volume remains where it was last week, Pitts' price will not be this low on DraftKings much longer.
Tyler Conklin ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel), New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: Conklin has run routes on at least 65% of Jets' dropbacks in all three games this season, resulting in 24 targets and 18 catches. Both the Jets and the Steelers rank in the top five in terms of pace of play to start this season -- something that seems completely out of character for these two teams historically. Nevertheless, I'll take the good news where it lies.
Defenses
Dallas Cowboys ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel), vs. Commanders
Denver Broncos ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel), at Raiders
Chicago Bears ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel), at Giants
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.