Each week during the 2022 NFL season, Field Yates will help fantasy football managers by providing the precise intel needed on the most important, fantasy-relevant storylines, with some help from friends at ESPN, who offer the best and freshest insight into what matters most. Field's Rolodex is vast; he'll dial up whomever he needs. This is the Field Pass.
It's not much of a stretch to imagine a group chat among fantasy football leaguemates that goes something along these lines:
Player 1: Does someone want to remind me why I used a first-round pick on Alvin Kamara? He's played in two of three games and is averaging less than 7.5 points per game.
Player 2: I mean, I had the first overall pick and used it on Jonathan Taylor, who has just 19.4 fantasy points over the past two weeks. Did I make a mistake?
Player 3: Cool, I took Justin Jefferson as WR1 off the board expecting a huge leap, and he has 62 receiving yards over the past two weeks.
Player 4: I think I feel OK about Christian McCaffrey, right? Can we throw him the ball more, please?
Player 5: I got Saquon Barkley at the end of Round 2 and life is good. Actually, it's great.
That's where we're going to lead things off here at Field Pass HQ for Week 4: the return of Saquon Barkley to a form that resembles his incredible rookie campaign back in 2018.
It's been such a treat to watch Barkley look like himself, and this is something that he predicted this offseason when he was steadfast in his stance that he'd prove the detractors wrong.
Through three weeks, Barkley is the highest-scoring running back, and he has staying power on his side. He's averaging 22.6 fantasy points per game thus far, but it's the avenue he is taking to get there that has me so enthused.
Barkley is sixth in the NFL in total carries so far, averaging an awesome 6.0 yards per carry. Even if you were to subtract Barkley's 68-yard run back in Week 1, Barkley would still be averaging 4.8 yards per carry, the highest for him in any season since 2018. His efficiency has been incredible.
Beyond that, he's been a huge factor in the passing game, too. He has 13 catches through three games, which is tied for fifth among all running backs, and he's run the third-most routes among backs, too. That reception total isn't fluky.
And while the NFL is trending toward backfield committees almost everywhere you look, Saquon is the guy in the Giants' backfield. Consider this: Barkley has 66 of the 74 total touches by all Giants running backs this season, or 89.2%. No other running back has a higher percentage of his team's total, with Matt Breida playing hardly a role as his backup. Barkley is playing an astronomical 86.7% of the snaps, also the highest mark for any running back in the league. For perspective, Jonathan Taylor -- a feature back in his own right -- is playing 74.2% of the snaps for the Colts.
And while the numbers tell a revealing story, the film backs it all up: Barkley looks the part. He's dynamic, explosive and one of the most valuable players in fantasy football. He's a top-three running back play in Week 4 for me.
Let's dive into more running backs here at Field Pass, covering nearly the entire NFC North.
NFC North backup backs
Injuries have befallen every team in some capacity so far this season, but the NFC North was hit especially hard at running back in Week 3. Dalvin Cook, D'Andre Swift and David Montgomery are all now dealing with injuries and that leads to massive opportunities for their backups that could swing fantasy matchups in Week 4. A look at the latest on each and the value of the next man up:
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings: Described on Monday as day-to-day by head coach Kevin O'Connell, Cook is once again dealing with a shoulder issue. He left a game in Week 12 of last season with another (and it seems similar) shoulder issue that he insisted he would return from soon. He did, as just 11 days later he rushed 205 yards and two touchdowns; a return as soon as Week 4 seems in play. But if Cook is out against the Saints and beyond, Alexander Mattison takes over and has massive upside. In the last five starts Mattison has made in Cook's place, he has averaged a whopping 25.8 touches per game, 132.6 total yards per game, a touchdown per game and 23.3 fantasy points per game. He's a talented dude with a good role, albeit in a tough matchup. He's a top-15 option for me if Cook sits.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions: Swift was already battling an ankle injury, but a shoulder sprain has him looking at the possibility of missing the team's next two games and returning following its Week 6 bye. That opens the door for Jamaal Williams to step into a starting role, something he, too, has thrived in previously. While the Lions may rely upon other backs such as Craig Reynolds in a complementary role, Williams is in line to handle 15-20 touches per game and is a very useful pass-catcher and goal line finisher. He's another top-15 play until Swift returns.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears: D-Mont left the Bears' Week 3 win over the Texans early due to an ankle/hip issue, but it's uncertain whether he will miss any game action. If he does, Khalil Herbert will step right up into a featured role against the Giants. Herbert was a star Sunday against the Texans when he handled 20 carries and the clear strength of the Bears' offensive line is its run-blocking prowess. The Bears should be able to stay in a positive or neutral game script against the frisky-but-not-offensively-explosive Giants, which affords the chance for another 20-ish carry game for Herbert. If I sound like a broken record, sorry, but he also is a top 15-ish option in Week 4 if Montgomery is out.
Time to drop the GOAT?
If you've been reading Field Pass over the past two weeks, you know that -- despite the pain it caused -- I stated my case for benching Tom Brady. Two difficult matchups and a lack of healthy/available pass-catchers made the case rather easy to make. But based off of questions from the masses I'm now receiving, the question surrounding Brady is not centered around whether to start him this week, but rather about whether to drop him entirely from your roster.
I mean, think about that for a second. The GOAT, coming off of a season in which he led the NFL in passing yards, passing touchdowns and showed zero signs of physical regression, has become a question mark less than a month into the 2022 season. And I get it -- we play a game that involves process-driven decision-making and results-driven reactions. The results have been bad, with no more than 15.9 fantasy points in a game thus far.
In addition, as of this writing, the Bucs have been an evenly balanced team (the past two years they were a pass-happy attack) catalyzed by the defense. So far.
I'm convinced the tides turn, perhaps as soon as this week (I'll explain the hedge in a moment).
We don't know for certain, but it's possible that Brady will have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Russell Gage available this Sunday against the Chiefs, or at least three out of four of them. That's a formidable quartet, especially as the latter three continue to get healthier throughout the season. Moreover, there are a total of seven teams that are allowing 200 passing yards per game or less through three weeks of this season and the Bucs have played three of them so far.
The schedule lightens up going forward and I forecast Brady's production to spike as well. It won't be to the top of the fantasy quarterback heap, but certainly good enough to justify him as a weekly starter. At the time this piece goes live, Brady is a top-10 play for me this week, a value that would change materially only if the Bucs are without Godwin and Jones again against the Chiefs.
Hang tight.
The Jaguars are roaring
Confession time. I wanted to lead the column showering praise on the Jaguars, because they deserve every bit of it and more. That applies to not only fantasy football, but in general for a franchise that has been stuck in the mud for more than a decade (save the 2017 season). Things are looking up so far. It's great.
The reason I ultimately decided against leading with the Jaguars? They are about to face what is one of the scariest matchups for fantasy football in the league right now: the Philadelphia Eagles. So while this write-up might look a little hairy on Sunday, we need to deliver credit where it's due.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has looked like the player teams and draft analysts drooled over for years in advance of his selection by the Jaguars in the 2021 NFL draft, especially over the past two games, in which he has completed 77% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He's currently QB10 on the season and already putting himself near the starting QB conversation in fantasy (this week, I've got him as QB15 because of the matchup).
Running back James Robinson has been one of the best stories in the league, as just nine months removed from a torn Achilles he looks ... incredible. He's the third-highest-scoring running back in all of fantasy and the only player with a rushing touchdown in each of the first three weeks of the season. He owns a decided edge in touches over Travis Etienne Jr. and is the clear-cut Jaguars back to play. He's a lineup lock (even this week).
Christian Kirk went from Twitter's most overpaid receiver in NFL history to a fantasy bargain, as he enters Week 4 as the sixth-highest-scoring wide receiver in the league. And it's real, too: He's top 20 in both catches and targets, top 10 in receiving yards and touchdowns, and tied for the second-most catches of 20-plus yards. He has been the real deal and, because he is often deployed as a slot receiver for Jacksonville, he will avoid Philly's incredible perimeter corners this week. He's a lineup lock.
Meanwhile, Zay Jones and his 24 targets in three games remind people he also got real money (three years, $24 million) to sign with the Jaguars and was so good down the stretch in 2021 for the Raiders. He has worked his way onto the flex radar with his team-leading 19 catches. Evan Engram isn't quite in the top 10 at tight end, but he has also flashed well so far this season.
I've always appreciated Jaguars fans because they stand for a unique loyalty that can never be questioned. They've stood by the franchise when tumult and losing were too often the only things to discuss surrounding it. Your loyalty has not gone unnoticed, and now your football team is not, either. Savor this and enjoy it. You deserve it.
You gotta earn it
There are players who feel like lineup locks, based off name value alone. But with three weeks of data to work with, we now know such is not the case. Let's examine a quartet of wideouts and a play a game of start/sit, conceding that none of them are players I'd suggest dropping yet.
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers: Through three games, Moore has just 88 receiving yards after just 2 yards in Week 3. It's astonishing, as Moore is an incredible talent. The bottom line is that the passing offense he's in is among the least efficient and lowest volume in the league, so his 23% target share is offset by those factors. I love Moore, but he's a sit right now.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos: More than half of Jeudy's 130 receiving yards this season came on one long play, a 67-yard touchdown. He has been neutralized over the past two games (he got hurt in Week 2) to the tune of just three catches. But beyond Jeudy, this Broncos offense is not clicking. Courtland Sutton has risen; Jeudy has fallen and is a bench stash.
Allen Robinson II, Los Angeles Rams: Robinson got signed by the Rams this offseason, and it breathed life into his potential value, despite warning signs during 2021 that he's not the same player he once was. He has 23 or fewer yards receiving in two of three games this season. He's the No. 2 wideout in a solid offense, but the Rams have not been nearly as efficient offensively and Robinson is a stash for now.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans: Cooks has yet to find the end zone this season and is coming off of a disappointing two-catch effort in Week 3. But he owns a 30% target share and did have more than 15 fantasy points in Week 1. I have Cooks as a top-25 play at wide receiver in Week 4 and remain steady on his value as a fringe WR2 or strong flex option.