Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
After going back through the Week 3 tape and looking at the upcoming matchups, there are some players moving up in my rankings. Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf is one of those players because of an increase in target volume, more red zone usage and a pretty good matchup on the Week 4 slate.
Let's get into it here: My players to upgrade and downgrade in your fantasy lineups, plus my notes from the tape on Breece Hall, Kyle Pitts, Trevor Lawrence and more.
Week 4 upgrades
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf climbed a bit in my PPR ranks this week (WR24) after posting 17.3 points on a season-high 12 targets in the Seahawks' Week 3 game versus the Falcons. Metcalf caught a red zone touchdown on a vertical throw versus zone coverage in that game, too (climbed the ladder to finish there). And on his seven routes run in the red zone, he logged a total of five targets. Do I want to see more shot plays to Metcalf? Yes, as he's averaging just over 8 yards per reception this season. But with a positive matchup versus the Lions' defense on Sunday, plus the uptick we are seeing in red zone usage, I'll take Metcalf as a WR3 in the lineup.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
We can see the game speed with Pollard, right? The explosive-play juice. The ability to run downhill between the tackles. He's moving on the tape. And he gives you some formation flexibility in the Dallas system. Pollard has more than 200 total yards in the past two games. He's averaging 5.6 yards per carry on the season. There are five rushes of 10-plus yards on his résumé, too. Given that Pollard is now sharing the workload split in the Cowboys backfield with Ezekiel Elliott, he fits as a flex option this week versus Washington, with RB2 value in deeper leagues.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
With 26 targets over the past two weeks and the vertical stretch ability to pepper the top of the Vikings' split-safety coverages, Olave has WR2/3 upside this week. A smooth glider who can float past defenders, Olave is averaging 15.8 yards per catch this season. And we are seeing how he fits with the aggressive throwing traits of Jameis Winston. Through three games, Olave is averaging 18.1 air yards per target. Now, we have to monitor the injury status of Winston this week (back), as the Saints will have opportunities to scheme Olave as a third-level option versus both Quarters and Cover 2 in this one. Those are the staple coverages in Minnesota. Olave dropped 23.7 PPR points on Carolina last Sunday and could bring an even higher ceiling to this matchup in Week 4 if Michael Thomas or Jarvis Landry are out because of injury. That ceiling will be significantly reduced if Winston misses the game, though.
Week 4 downgrades
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
Wilson is an instinctual thrower -- with playmaking traits -- who has struggled at the start of this season in the Broncos' rhythm-based pass game. Through three games, Wilson is QB23 in fantasy scoring, and he's averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt over the past two weeks. I do think you can start Wilson as a fringe QB1 this week given the matchup versus the Raiders' defense. But I can't move him back up in my ranks until I see the Broncos create more timing in the route tree, in addition to what Wilson can do outside of structure.
DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
I expected Moore to stick in the WR1 rankings this year with consistent target volume, red zone usage and an upgraded pass game with Baker Mayfield in Carolina. However, Moore is still sliding in my rankings, checking in this week at WR31. We know Mayfield has played frenetically this season, completing just over 50% of this passes. And Moore is currently sitting at seven receptions -- on 18 targets. That red zone bump? We aren't seeing it, as Moore has logged only two red zone targets through the first three weeks of the season. He's a WR3 this week versus the Cardinals.
Players to monitor
Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts
The rookie didn't record a reception in Week 1 and missed the Colts' Week 2 game because of a concussion. This past Sunday, however, Pierce flashed his ability to win as a boundary target for Matt Ryan. Pierce caught three of five targets for 61 yards. He ran fade routes as the backside X receiver, separated back to the ball on curls and comebacks, and won on quick in-breakers. Let's see if Pierce sees a bump in volume this week versus the Titans.
Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens
I mentioned Hill in my Week 4 streaming column, after he rushed for 60 yards (on six carries) this past Sunday in the Ravens' win over the Patriots. Yes, we need to see more volume here, but Hill could have some deeper-league upside if he remains the No. 2 in the Ravens' backfield.
More notes from the tape
• We're seeing the dual-threat traits with Jets running back Breece Hall -- backfield releases to create second-level matchups, wide/flexed alignments, swings and check-downs. Hall posted a season-high 15.2 PPR points in Week 3, and he has now logged 21 targets through three weeks.
• The Falcons schemed for Kyle Pitts in their Week 3 win over the Seahawks. Check out the tight end screen or the wheel route with Pitts releasing from a backfield alignment. There was an effort here (through the game plan) to generate targets for Pitts, who posted a season-high 13.7 PPR points.
• Saquon Barkley's 36-yard touchdown run on Monday night was yet another reminder he can play at a different speed than everyone else on the field. Short-area burst, the smooth cut, then hit the gas ... and go. Barkley dropped 22.6 PPR points on the Cowboys in Week 3 and gets another positive matchup versus the Bears' defense this Sunday. He's a top-three play in Week 4.
• The quick-hitting glance route (skinny post) is a top concept in the Packers' offense. Show the run action to pull the linebackers downhill and create the window. That's 15 yards on the throw -- and maybe more after the catch. Rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs (21.3 PPR points in Week 3) caught two of those glance routes from Aaron Rodgers versus the Bucs.
• Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith is so controlled and explosive in his movements. He can make combat catches, too. Smith checked in with a season-high 30.9 PPR points in the Eagles' win over Washington. The arrow is pointing up here.
• Bears quarterback Justin Fields is off the fantasy radar for Week 4. The second-year player isn't seeing the field clearly, and he has missed on multiple opportunities to cut it loose as a thrower. Expect more heavy rushing volume from this Chicago offense versus the Giants on Sunday.
• The Bills still run the NFL's most quarterback-centric offense. Last week, Josh Allen recorded 63 passing attempts and added eight rushing attempts.
• We can see the development of Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (25.18 fantasy points in Week 3) in his improved footwork and upper-body mechanics. The production in Doug Pederson's scheme gives the quarterback leveled reads. Lawrence gets a really good test in Week 4 versus an Eagles defense with a pass rush and urgent defenders in the secondary.
• Titans running back Derrick Henry, who failed to record a single catch in Weeks 1 and 2, posted five receptions for 58 yards in Week 3. And he finished with 25.3 PPR points. Let's keep the screen package going here for Henry on Sunday versus the Colts.
• Colts rookie tight end Jelani Woods caught two red zone touchdowns in the Colts' win over the Chiefs. Going back to his college tape at Virginia, Woods has the physical profile and tools of a matchup player at the position. Let's keep an eye on his usage this Sunday versus Tennessee.
• Even with limited pass-game deployment in the Browns' offense, Nick Chubb is climbing in the PPR ranks. The league's best pure runner, Chubb has already logged 62 carries this season. And he's tied for the NFL lead with four touchdowns.
• Is this the week for the Austin Ekeler breakout game? The Chargers' running back has registered 17 receptions over the past two weeks, but the run-game efficiency is missing in L.A. Ekeler gets a really positive matchup versus the Houston defense in Week 4.
• Through three weeks, Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota is QB13 in fantasy scoring. Look at the QB run game here. Mariota has rushed for a touchdown in two of three games played this season.