Each Friday during the 2022 NFL and fantasy football season, Eric Karabell will bring his always-reasonable perspective to highlight the biggest fantasy football storylines heading into the weekend's games.
Quarterbacks might be the real-life focus for Sunday night's game between the rival Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, as semi-intriguing sophomore Justin Fields and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers aim to bounce back from disappointing opening-week performances, but the fantasy football world might be paying more attention to the running backs. After all, based on results and expectations from average live drafts, the Bears' David Montgomery and Packers' Aaron Jones were supposed to be reliable RB2 options.
In Week 1, each was outscored in PPR formats by his backup or, if one prefers, his timeshare partner. Sometimes it is just so hard to tell! Regardless, the Bears' Khalil Herbert turned 10 touches into a touchdown and 11.3 PPR points, while the Packers' AJ Dillon finished among the overall top-10 RB scorers with 20.1 PPR points. Montgomery ran poorly, accruing 26 rushing yards on 17 chances, while Jones performed well when he had the football but got it only eight times. That's clearly not enough.
Fantasy managers crave clarity, and they are often quite overreactive, and so it is that Herbert is among the most-added running backs in ESPN leagues, while Dillon figures to show up in a lot more starting lineups this week. We cannot argue against these moves, but Montgomery and Jones obviously deserve more chances before fantasy managers move on. That's why we call it the hot seat! They should bounce back, but they have to actually do it.
It's a bit ironic that the Bears might be moving toward the recent Packers direction of handling running backs, as new Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy came from Green Bay, where he was Rodgers' QB coach. Jones and Dillon each topped 1,100 yards from scrimmage for last season's Packers, and fantasy managers had few complaints. Might that be the direction Chicago goes in with Herbert and Montgomery? Herbert is quicker, to some a better fit for the offense, but Montgomery is more accomplished, a better breaker of tackles, a better pass-blocker. He is also in a contract year. Hmmm.
Regardless, each running back touch on Sunday night figures to be scrutinized quite a bit in the fantasy world. For the record, our rankings show little panic based on preseason rankings. Montgomery remains in RB2 consideration, though a bit lower than usual, and Jones remains ranked ahead of Dillon, though the gap is considerably smaller. Let's see what happens this week!
Quarterback
As for Fields and Rodgers -- really, based on achievements, must we refer to them as Rodgers and Fields -- only one of them will show in many lineups anyway. Rodgers will be fine. He just needs receiving aid. Fields is still developing. It's tough to say either is truly on the fantasy hot seat yet. Nobody should drop Rodgers, even if he has another disappointing performance. ... Rams starter Matthew Stafford has built-in equity after his 41-touchdown performance and Super Bowl last season. He is not on the hot seat unless his elbow is hurting him and the team isn't sharing the info. ... For New England Patriots starter Mac Jones, dealing with back spasms, and Jacksonville Jaguars starter Trevor Lawrence, dealing with development, fantasy managers are not patient, but with the depth at this position, they don't need to be.
Running back
Pittsburgh Steelers star Najee Harris leads the list this week after turning his abnormally low 12 touches into 26 yards (albeit with a receiving touchdown) in Week 1. Harris has dealt with foot injuries, but he should play against the Patriots. That said, adding backup Jaylen Warren in deep leagues makes sense, too. ... Speaking of low touch totals, how about Carolina Panthers star Christian McCaffrey getting the football only 14 times? He also scored a TD, but if he hadn't, fantasy managers would be talking. There seemed to be only two options for McCaffrey based on the past two seasons: awesome performance or he doesn't play. This was disturbingly in between.
Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints had 12 touches and has a rib injury. Something to watch. ... Will fantasy managers move on from Jaguars sophomore Travis Etienne Jr. if he doesn't see more action this week? They shouldn't, but it is a big week for Etienne because James Robinson certainly ran well and looked healthy. ... I think we should at least be curious if the Dallas Cowboys try to control the clock more with running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard this week now that Cooper Rush (no real pressure on him in fantasy) is quarterbacking. Pollard might fall off fantasy rosters soon.
Wide receiver
Start with Rodgers' options on the Packers, as we saw several dropped passes in the opener. Allen Lazard sat because of an ankle injury, and perhaps he sits again. Rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have such wonderful opportunities to emerge. Rodgers might not wait long, same as fantasy managers. ... Speaking of, Watson is among the most-dropped WRs in ESPN leagues, along with fellow rookies Treylon Burks (Titans), George Pickens (Steelers), Garrett Wilson (Jets) and Chris Olave (Saints). That didn't take long! Why draft them only to move on so quickly? It is not too late for these players to produce numbers and reestablish themselves on fantasy rosters.
As for veterans, the Rams' Allen Robinson II saw only two Stafford targets in Week 1. He's not on the dropped list yet, but another game like that and he will surely be. ... Same with Cleveland Browns starter Amari Cooper, who might have been over-drafted in the first place. He's sure not in Dallas anymore. ... Tyler Lockett in Seattle might also have a tough time thriving considering the team's offensive situation at quarterback. ... I think we all want to see more than two targets for the 49ers' Brandon Aiyuk, too.
Tight end
The 49ers' George Kittle missed the opening game and is uncertain for this week, but he's not IR-eligible, so it creates an issue for fantasy managers. ... Dawson Knox got a new contract extension from the Bills but only one catch in the opener, and he instantly fell below 85% rostered. ... Popular sleeper Irv Smith Jr. of the Vikings did little in Week 1, but he should do more against Philadelphia's linebackers this Monday.
Last week
49ers starting QB Trey Lance and his colleagues led the column last week, and then they scored only 10 points in Chicago. Yeah, bad weather and blah, blah, blah, but still, not impressive. Lance remains on the hot seat. RB Elijah Mitchell got hurt. ... Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson scored 20 PPR points, quieting talk of Brian Robinson eventually pushing him aside. ... Kansas City Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster saw eight of the 20 targets Patrick Mahomes aimed at wide receivers in Week 1. No worries here. ... Big worries with Miami Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki, whom we profiled as a concern, and then he saw one measly target. Fantasy managers made him the most-dropped player not named Dak Prescott and not a rookie. That says something!