Making those tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which of them to start, my advice is to start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced this season. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For Week 2, these maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of the matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position in 2021. Remember, teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
The reason for using my personal rankings right now, rather than year-to-date totals, is that one week's worth of defensive numbers doesn't provide an adequate sample with which to judge performance. Once three weeks are in the books, we'll begin using 2022 data as well as my personal rankings to adjust for the still-limited sample, then beginning in Week 6 (five weeks in the books), we'll rank only by what the numbers say, and each subsequent week will provide a snapshot of the most recent five weeks.
A couple of caveats before we start: Take the 2021 data with a heaping dose of salt, as the rankings are much more important. Additionally, matchups are only one ingredient to the lineup-setting process, as not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Derek Carr, Raiders (versus Cardinals). His chemistry with Davante Adams was readily apparent this past Sunday, as Carr totaled 7.64 fantasy points on his 17 throws to Adams, compared to only 6.24 on his 20 throws to everyone else. The contrast in matchups, meanwhile, is substantial, as the Chargers bring one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the game, while the Cardinals surrendered league highs of 360 yards and five touchdowns passing to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Carr should find his favorite target, Adams, open all day against mediocre Cardinals cornerbacks Byron Murphy Jr. and Marco Wilson, and it's quite likely that Darren Waller will experience more success of his own against a secondary that afforded Travis Kelce 26.1 PPR fantasy points in the opener.
Others to like: Carson Wentz (Commanders, at Lions) looked much-improved in his first game for his new team, and should rightfully be a popular streamer against a rebuilding Lions defense. ... Matt Ryan (Colts, at Jaguars) needs to control the football more effectively than he did in the opener (4 fumbles, 1 lost), but a Jaguars matchup gives him good odds of keeping up the late-game momentum he showed.
Matchup to avoid: Tom Brady, Buccaneers (at Saints). Of the 19.8 PPR fantasy points Marcus Mariota scored against the Saints in Week 1, 13.2 came on rushing plays, something that hasn't been a significant part of Brady's game in any of his 23 NFL seasons. He's a prototypical pocket passer, and the Saints were very good against them in 2021 -- and project to remain so in 2022 -- having seen only five quarterbacks score 13-plus fantasy points against them in a single game on passing plays. Brady was one of those quarterbacks, in his 25.20 point Week 8, but he hasn't generally excelled against this particular opponent, averaging 13.20 fantasy points in his four regular-season meetings with the Saints from 2020 to '21.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Antonio Gibson, Commanders (at Lions). He dominated the backfield work during the season opener, playing 64.3% of the offensive snaps while amassing 21 touches to J.D. McKissic's 28.6% and six, alleviating much of the workload concern that surrounded him near the conclusion of training camp. Now Gibson draws the league's most favorable matchup for a running back, against a Lions defense that allowed three different Eagles running backs to score a touchdown in Week 1, not to mention a combined 36.7 PPR fantasy points to the trio of Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. As Gibson has absorbed 21 of the Commanders' 38 total goal-to-go rushing attempts, as well as 21-of-29 that went to running backs, since the beginning of last season, he should be primed for a big fantasy day.
Others to like: Miles Sanders' (Eagles, versus Vikings) matchup this week isn't quite as attractive as last week's, but the Vikings are still a below-average run defense that afford him good odds of a second straight week with a touchdown, after a 2021 in which he scored none. ... Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots, at Steelers) should see a good amount of work on both sides of the ball against a Steelers defense that afforded running backs a league-high 96 receiving yards in the opener.
Matchup to avoid: James Robinson, Jaguars (versus Colts). For all the buzz surrounding Robinson's Week 1, let's not overstate the shift in Jaguars backfield usage. Robinson and Travis Etienne Jr. played an identical number of snaps (31 apiece), Etienne ran more routes (20-15) and saw more targets (4-2), Robinson had many more carries (11-4), and Etienne was the one who lost out on a pair of gift touchdown passes, one on an overthrow by Trevor Lawrence and the other on a costly drop of his own. In other words, the Jaguars seemed intent on keeping Etienne involved, and a run (Robinson)/pass (Etienne) arrangement that keeps them close in terms of total weekly touches seems a reasonable projection. With a Colts matchup upcoming, that's not a recipe for start-worthy status for either, as this defense held the Texans' duo to 73 yards on 25 carries, after having been a near-top-10 schedule-adjusted defense against running backs in 2021.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Gabe Davis, Bills (versus Titans). Preseason hype machine Davis enjoyed a productive Thursday season opener, scoring 18.8 PPR fantasy points on only five targets against the Rams, and he gets a much more favorable matchup in Week 2 against the Titans. As a starting outside receiver across from Stefon Diggs, Davis should primarily line up against cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary, with the former graded the fourth-worst defensive back by NFL Next Gen Stats when he was the closest defender in coverage, and the latter a rookie who wasn't targeted in the opener. Incidentally, when the Bills faced the Titans in Week 6 of last season, they had three different wide receivers score at least 14.1 PPR fantasy points (Diggs, 23.9; Cole Beasley, 21.8; and Emmanuel Sanders, 14.1), not to mention attempted 47 passes. Davis is very much a WR2 for Week 2.
Others to like: Jakobi Meyers (Patriots, at Steelers) was the most targeted Patriots receiver in what was a bad Week 1 for the offense, but he should rebound against a Steelers defense that will be without T.J. Watt (pectoral). ... Courtland Sutton (Broncos, versus Texans) generally sees more of his routes on the perimeter, which is where Michael Pittman Jr. lined up in what was Week 1's WR5 performance, so expect Sutton to see an increase in work and success in Week 2.
Matchup to avoid: Rashod Bateman, Ravens (versus Dolphins). The Dolphins have been one of the tougher defenses against opposing wide receivers for the past year and a week, and it's in large part because of the performance of cornerback Xavien Howard. Since the beginning of last season, he has allowed the closest receiver in coverage only 4.8 targets and 8.3 PPR fantasy points per game, while adding 17 passes defensed and five interceptions. Additionally, Nik Needham has also graded, per Next Gen Stats, as an above-average cornerback in coverage during that same time span, heightening the challenge of the matchup the rare times Bateman might line up out of the slot. The Ravens should find much more success throwing to Mark Andrews considering the matchup, rendering Bateman a low-end flex.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Zach Ertz, Cardinals (at Raiders). Expect to see the Cardinals drawn into a good share of high-scoring, pass-oriented games this season -- for example, they enter Week 2 with the second-highest over/under -- which suits their receivers, including 2021 comeback story Ertz. He managed to haul in a 6-yard, garbage-time score in the season opener, and should be more involved against a Raiders defense that struggled mightily to contain Chargers tight ends Gerald Everett and Tre' McKitty. In particular, the Raiders surrendered a pair of catches on three red zone targets to the two, resulting in 21 of 78 yards and Everett's touchdown. Ertz, by the way, tied for the league's lead with 20 red zone targets last season.
Others to like: Should George Kittle (49ers, versus Seahawks) play in Week 2 -- though as of Thursday it appears he will not -- it's worth pointing out he has averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points in his past five games against the Seahawks. ... Albert Okwuegbunam (Broncos, versus Texans) disappointed in the season opener but gets another strong matchup in a game in which he'll remain Russell Wilson's go-to at the position.
Matchup to avoid: Kyle Pitts, Falcons (at Rams). He's a difficult player to justify benching, if only because of his target-hound status and the relative lack of depth at the position, but the point here is to stress how poor this matchup, and the need for patience through two weeks if Pitts is on your fantasy team. The Rams, an above-average defense against opposing tight ends and elite overall defense in 2021, limited Bills tight end Dawson Knox to a 5-yard catch on only two targets in the season opener.