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Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.
There were 79 names listed in those six columns, and in 72 cases the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 91.1%. Five exceptions came during the historically offensive 2018 and 2020 seasons (that includes Taysom Hill, who had four of his nine scores during his four unexpected starts at QB) and, despite the league playing an extra game last season, our only 2021 misses were Ryan Tannehill (matched his 2020 total) and Mike Evans (by one TD). Even if we cross off players who barely saw the field (David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Christian McCaffrey), the hit rate remains extremely strong.
This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good, I have it.
During the 2010 to '20 seasons, there were 212 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 179 (84.4%) scored fewer touchdowns the next season and the average change was a decrease of 5.0. Of the 46 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 44 (95.7%) scored fewer times the next season (average dip of 8.3). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018) and Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014).
Last season, Jonathan Taylor (20), Austin Ekeler (20), James Conner (18), Joe Mixon (16), Cooper Kupp (16), Damien Harris (15), Deebo Samuel (14) and Mike Evans (14) made up the list of players who reached 14 offensive TDs.
Every player who scored at least 14 TDs in 2020 found the end zone less often in 2021: Alvin Kamara (21 to 9), Davante Adams (18 to 11), Tyreek Hill (17 to 9), Derrick Henry (17 to 10), Dalvin Cook (17 to 6) and Adam Thielen (14 to 10). Several were partially due to injury, but on the other hand, they also had an extra game added to the schedule.
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2021 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
2021 TDs: 20; 2022 projected TDs: 12
From 2010 to '20, 29 players scored at least 15 TDs in a single season. All but one (Todd Gurley 2017-18) scored fewer TDs the following season. Ekeler found the end zone 20 times in 2021, which tied Jonathan Taylor for most in the league. As if that's not enough of a concern, the 8.9 gap between Ekeler's TD total and expected TD total based on usage (11.1) was largest in the league. He entered 2021 having scored on five of 19 career carries within 6 yards of the end zone. He was 10 of 17 in the category last season. Ekeler will still score plenty if he maintains a big goal line role (12 carries inside the 5 last season), but history suggests he'll score about half as often.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
2021 TDs: 18; 2022 projected TDs: 12
Conner ranked 17th in carries and 36th in targets among RBs last season, but heavy goal line work allowed him a top-five fantasy campaign. Conner registered 12 carries from opponent's 1-yard line, which was three more than any other player. He finished no lower than third among RBs in TDs (18), expected TDs (11.8) and carries inside the 5 (16). Conner has always been effective at the goal line, having scored on 19 of 28 career carries (68%) from the 1-yard line, but reaching those goal line usage numbers again will be a challenge. Expect a dip.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
2021 TDs: 16; 2022 projected TDs: 10
Kupp had one of the most-productive seasons in NFL history last season, pacing the league in targets, receptions, receiving yards, TDs and, of course, fantasy points. Kupp was also tops at wide receiver in expected TDs (11.6) and fifth in end zone targets (13). History suggests that he's a near lock for a step back (perhaps a big one), and that's sure to impact him in the TD department. Kupp entered 2021 with 24 touchdowns (17.6 expected) in four seasons, though his massive 2021 usage and extraordinary connection with Matthew Stafford suggests we can still expect double digits.
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
2021 TDs: 14; 2022 projected TDs: 9
Samuel tied for seventh in touchdowns, but was 55th in expected TDs last season. Super-reliant on explosive plays, Samuel totaled three end zone targets (believe it or not, he caught none of them) and one carry inside the opponent's 5-yard line. Samuel's elite playmaking ability (6.2 yards per carry and WR-best 9.7 RAC since he was drafted) will help him find the end zone at a decent clip, but three seasons of limited goal line work suggests we should expect some regression.
Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
2021 TDs: 15; 2022 projected TDs: 10
Harris ranked 23rd in touches (220) and 11th in expected TDs (9.2), but fifth in TDs among RBs last season. Of the 15 players with at least five carries from the opponent's 1-yard line last season, Harris was the only one to score on 100% of his attempts. Impressive? Sure. Sustainable? No. Consider that the other 14 players combined to score on 58% of their attempts. We also know Harris is unlikely to make up for a TD dip with his passing-game contributions, as zero of his 29 career targets have come while inside the 14-yard line.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
2021 TDs: 20; 2022 projected TDs: 15
Taylor tied for the league lead with 20 TDs last season, and history tells us to expect a drop -- perhaps a substantial one -- in 2022. However, Taylor also paced the league in carries (332), carries inside the 5-yard line (26), scrimmage yards (2,171) and expected touchdowns (15.5), so it's reasonable to still expect a high number of scores. Incredibly, Taylor scored 20 times despite not seeing a single target inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Despite a probable dip, Taylor remains the favorite to pace the league in rushing TDs.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2021 TDs: 14; 2022 projected TDs: 9
Evans caught a career-high 13 TDs in 2020 -- his first with Tom Brady -- and then proceeded to increase that number to 14 last season. Evans easily cleared his expected totals during the two campaigns, but he's always been busy near the goal line, having finished top 10 in end zone targets in all eight NFL seasons. The big change has been his conversion rate. During the 2015-19 seasons, Evans caught 27 of 86 end zone targets (31.4%), which is just slightly below a league-average conversion rate. During two seasons with Brady, Evans has caught an absurd 17 of 25 (68%). Evans' heavy goal line usage can't be ignored, but considering only seven players in NFL history have scored 13-plus TDs in three different seasons, we should anticipate a step back this season.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
2021 TDs: 16; 2022 projected TDs: 13
Mixon posted career-best marks in touches (334), TDs (16) and expected TDs (12.0) last season, but heavy usage -- including goal line work -- is nothing new. He ranked no lower than eighth among backs in touches, expected TDs and carries inside the 5 in both 2018 and '19, though he totaled 17 scores during the span. Execution was a major reason for the 2021 surge, as after not scoring on any of five carries within 5 yards of the goal line in 2020, Mixon scored on seven of 13 carries within 2 yards of the goal line last season. Expect a slight TD dip in 2022.
Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
2021 TDs: 10; 2022 projected TDs: 7
I'm playing with fire here, as Thielen has consistently defied the odds in the TD department, but his pace has to slow down, right? Thielen has scored 39 TDs over the last four seasons, beating his expected total during all four campaigns. He's finished no lower than fourth in TD rate each of the last three seasons. Consider, though, that 11 WRs scored at least nine TDs last season and Thielen was the only one under nine end zone targets (he had eight). Thielen's recent TD success has been built on an absurd 68% (19 of 28) conversion rate on those end zone targets, which nearly doubles the expected rate. Expect a step back in the scoring department for the 32-year-old.
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills
2021 TDs: 9; 2022 projected TDs: 6
Knox led all tight ends in touchdowns (nine) and TD rate (12.3%) last season. Though he was busy near the goal line (he ranked fourth with nine end zone targets), Knox was still well above his expected TD total (6.7) and ranked 20th at the position in total targets (73). Knox will continue to benefit from Buffalo's high-scoring offense, but he'll need more usage in order to offset a dip in touchdowns and that seems unlikely with O.J. Howard added to the fold.
Others: WR DK Metcalf (Seahawks), WR Tyler Lockett (Seahawks), WR Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals), WR K.J. Osborn (Vikings), RB Cordarrelle Patterson (Falcons), WR Cedrick Wilson Jr (Dolphins), TE Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), RB Melvin Gordon III (Broncos).