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Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
From the 2010 to '20 seasons, there were 133 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 133 cases, 96 (or 72%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing in on the 40 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 32 (or 80%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 15 who scored either zero or one touchdown, 12 (or 80%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot receivers Jason Avant (2010-11 and 2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the three exceptions.
Last season, 24 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables under three scores including Kyle Pitts, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers, Mike Gesicki and Darren Waller.
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs in the same time span. There are 49 instances in which a back failed to score seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing at least 200 again the next season. Of those 49 cases, 39 (or 80%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first season, but each scored at least six times the next season. The average second-year touchdown total was 8.5!
In 2021, Saquon Barkley (4 TDs, 203 touches), Sony Michel (5 TDs, 229 touches), Dalvin Cook (6 TDs, 283 touches) and Elijah Mitchell (6 TDs, 226 touches) were the only backs with fewer than seven scores on 200-plus touches.
Of the players on that list one year ago, Frank Gore didn't play in 2021, Clyde Edwards-Helaire improved from 5 to 6 TDs despite missing seven games and James Conner jumped from 6 to 18 TDs.
If you skipped all that, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar playing time the following season.
In this piece, I'll be referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2021 usage tells us that we should expect a boost in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
2021 TDs: 1; 2022 projected TDs: 5
Every offseason, a poster boy for touchdown regression to the mean emerges. This year, Pitts is that guy. Fifty NFL players produced at least 700 receiving yards last season. 49 of them found the end zone at least twice. The exception, of course, was Pitts, who scored once despite ranking 24th in the league with 1,026 yards as a 20-year-old rookie. Pitts ranked 11th among tight ends in expected TDs (5.1) and was top five in both targets and yardage in what was one of the greatest rookie seasons ever by a tight end. Even with Atlanta's QB concerns, Pitts' TDs will rebound in a big way this season.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2021 TDs: 6; 2022 projected TDs: 11
After scoring 13 and 17 touchdowns during the 2019 and '20 seasons, respectively, Cook saw his TD total dive to six in 2021. That's despite ranking top 10 in carries inside the 5-yard line (12) for the third straight season. Cook always misses games (at least two in all five pro seasons) and isn't targeted near the goal line much (one target inside the 10 over the last three seasons), but his overall usage hasn't changed. In fact, despite missing four games last season, he finished seventh in touches and sixth in yardage among backs. Expect him to get back on track in the TD department.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 8
Sutton's bizarre 2021 season saw him rank 14th among wide receivers in snaps (882), but 78th in touchdowns (two). He didn't see a ton of work near the goal line (five end zone targets, none of which were caught), but his role as a vertical target (13th at WR in air yards) led to an expected TD total (5.1) of more than double his actual output. Sutton is 6-foot-3 and has a history of heavy use near the goal line, as his 23 end zone targets during the 2019-20 seasons ranked sixth in the league. He's a candidate for a boost in TDs regardless, but the huge QB upgrade to Russell Wilson only adds to his upside.
Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 5
After scoring nine touchdowns in 2020 (third most among TEs), Waller plummeted to two scores last season. Sure, he played five fewer games, but his 5.2 expected TD total suggests he should've more than doubled his output. The main culprit was conversions while inside the confines of the end zone. Waller caught seven of nine end zone targets in 2020, but only one of eight last season. Waller's targets may drop with Davante Adams in the mix this season, but his TDs are a strong bet to rise.
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 5
Every year, there is a player who overcorrects in the TD department. Claypool headlines that list this season. After scoring 11 touchdowns on 72 touches as a rookie in 2020, Claypool plummeted to two scores on 73 touches in 2021. He actually saw more end zone targets in his second season, but he had one of the league's worst conversion rates (one TD on eight targets). Interestingly, Claypool's expected TD rates were relatively close during the two seasons (7.6 in 2020, 6.1 in 2021), but he simply overachieved one year and underachieved the next. Even in an offense that may struggle this season, Claypool is a good bet for a boost in scoring.
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
2021 TDs: 0; 2022 projected TDs: 6
Check out this wild stat from last season: The Eagles led the NFL in rushing touchdowns (25), but their lead back (Sanders) failed to score a single TD. Seriously. Sure, Sanders missed five games, but he still touched the ball 163 times and had an expected TD total of 4.5. In fact, Sanders holds the unfortunate distinction of having registered the most touches without scoring at least once. Sure, it's easy to predict that a player who didn't score a single TD will find the end zone more often, but the fact is, Sanders should've had a lot more TDs last season. That's especially the case after he found the end zone 12 times (12.3 expected) during his first two NFL seasons. He's a strong rebound candidate in the Eagles' run-heavy scheme.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 4
Jackson led all QBs in rushing attempts during each of his first three NFL seasons, scoring at least five TDs in all three campaigns. Despite racking up 133 carries (including a career-high six inside the 5-yard line) last season, Jackson ran for only two scores. He ranked third among QBs in expected TDs (5.3) and carries inside the 5, but 13 passers found the end zone more often with their legs. Jackson missed five games last season, but still scrambled a career-high 51 times. Expect more rushing TDs in 2022.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
2021 TDs: 0; 2022 projected TDs: 4
Seventy-one tight ends caught at least one TD last season. Kmet was not one of them, despite ranking 14th at the position in both expected TDs (4.5) and end zone targets (six). Of the 61 players who caught at least 55 passes, only Kmet (60 receptions) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (63) failed to score a touchdown. Kmet's lack of scoring was extremely fluky, and a rebound can be expected.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 4
This isn't a "bold predictions" article, but projecting Meyers for more touchdowns probably seems like it belongs in that category. New England's slot man has had brutal TD luck, having scored on two of 168 career receptions (247 targets). Every other wide receiver in league history with at least 104 receptions has caught more than two TDs. Meyers was one of 18 players to catch 83-plus balls last season and the other 17 found the end zone at least four times. The good news is that Meyers has already shown signs of regression to the mean, as after not catching a TD in his first 38 NFL games, he's done so in two of his last eight. Meyers may never be a top TD scorer, but his heavy usage (at least 23% target share the last two seasons) suggests better days are ahead.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins
2021 TDs: 2; 2022 projected TDs: 5
Gesicki was a busy man near the goal line during the 2019 and '20 seasons. He ranked no lower than fifth among tight ends in end zone targets and no lower than 10th in touchdowns in both campaigns. Despite posting career-high marks in targets (110), receptions (73) and yardage (780) in 2021, Gesicki plummeted to four end zone targets (24th at TE) and two TDs (34th). The dip in usage is concerning, especially with Tyreek Hill now in the fold, but Gesicki's TD total was still about half of his expected total (3.9) and he'll certainly maintain a significant offensive role after receiving the franchise tag.
Others: WR Allen Robinson II (Rams), WR Kenny Golladay (Giants), WR Marvin Jones Jr. (Jaguars), WR Mecole Hardman (Chiefs), WR Jerry Jeudy (Broncos), WR Kadarius Toney (Giants), RB Chase Edmonds (Dolphins), QB Dak Prescott (Cowboys), RB Saquon Barkley (Giants).