Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout remains arguably the best player in Major League Baseball and a generational superstar, future Hall of Famer and, of course, nearly every fantasy manager loves him. However, Trout was not among the most reasonable candidates for the first pick in most 2022 fantasy baseball drafts for one simple reason: he misses myriad games, frustrating fantasy managers. Over the past four full seasons entering 2022 -- discounting the pandemic-truncated 2020 season -- Trout missed more than 200 of his team's games, or 35%. Would you rush to invest in a player early in the first round who, over a four-year period, played only 65% of his team's games?
Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey established himself as a fantasy superstar during the 2018 season, and then he was even better in 2019, approaching 2,400 yards from scrimmage and scoring 19 touchdowns. He caught 116 passes, too, and there was absolutely no question who fantasy managers would choose with the first pick in 2020 PPR drafts. McCaffrey made history the previous season and, over his first three NFL campaigns, missed nary a game. The Panthers rewarded him kindly with a huge contract. Hmmm, sounds familiar: a fantasy superstar who rarely missed games in his early years.
Then came 2020 and, in the NFL, it was a full 16-game season. McCaffrey played in three games. Oh, he performed awesome in those three games, averaging better than 30 points in PPR formats, but still, he missed 13 games with various maladies. Fantasy managers didn't care when 2021 drafts rolled around. I'm not sure I cared, really. McCaffrey remained the no-brainer first pick for 2021. Then he got hurt in Week 3 of 2021 and missed more than a month. He returned, played well for a month but hardly up to his typical standards and then he was done again. Seven games played out of 17, a second consecutive disappointment. It seems we have to care now.
McCaffrey -- who many in the fantasy football world continue to select with the No. 2 or 3 pick in PPR leagues, just behind Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and perhaps Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp -- played in 10 of 33 possible games the past two seasons, or 30%. That makes Trout look almost like Cal Ripken Jr. OK, not really. Still, it remains a bit perplexing how fantasy managers overlook how critical durability is in determining fantasy value. Sure, it's great to have Trout and McCaffrey when they are playing, and their respective statistical upsides are nearly without peer, but ... these missed games absolutely matter! Health is a skill they now struggle with.
There really is no official right answer on when McCaffrey should be chosen in PPR leagues. It comes down to comfort level, the ultimate risk-versus-reward scenario. We all hope McCaffrey can stay healthy and productive for all 17 regular-season games. As with Trout, they are fantastic talents, breathtaking to watch perform. Nobody roots for injuries. It isn't just about fantasy. We as football fans -- and baseball fans, too -- feel robbed of missing these signature players dominate their stage while in their prime years. It would be so easy if they simply didn't miss games, or just a small percentage of them. Alas, this has not been the case. Perhaps things change for McCaffrey in 2022. They have not for Trout; he went on the injured list prior to the All-Star break.
Still, while one mostly missed season can be regarded as fluky, it's tough to feel the same way when it's multiple, consecutive seasons. Trout used to be durable. From 2013 to 2016, he missed no more than five games in any of the six-month seasons. We'd debate only whom to choose No. 2 in drafts, regardless of format. Trout produced monster statistics and won MVP awards and we hoped it would never end. Then came 2017 and 48 missed games due to a thumb injury. Performance hardly lagged when he played. Trout played enough -- whatever enough is -- in 2018, 2019 and 2020 for the majority of fantasy managers to ignore 2017. Then came 2021 and a strained right calf. Trout missed 78% of the games. In addition, one of the keys to his value was missing since 2018, as Trout no longer stole bases.
We are not concerned with McCaffrey's stats quite yet, though if the Panthers reduce his workload in any way, perhaps say with goal line or short-yardage rushing attempts or in the passing game, it would surely alter his inherent value much like Trout no longer being a five-category fantasy producer. The Panthers were concerned enough about McCaffrey's plight to offer a one-year contract to free agent D'Onta Foreman. Mock or ignore the signing if you desire, but Foreman surely impressed after joining the Tennessee Titans last season in the wake of the Derrick Henry injury. The bruising Foreman broke 100 rushing yards three times in a five-game span and scored three touchdowns. He is conservatively 240 pounds. McCaffrey may be 200 pounds. The Panthers absolutely considered these facts and figure to ease the burden on McCaffrey to some degree.
Fantasy investors may proclaim nobody boasts a higher upside than McCaffrey, and it is fair. After all, while there is running back depth in the early rounds, quite a few of the options missed playing time in 2021. Los Angeles Chargers star Austin Ekeler and Pittsburgh Steelers sophomore Najee Harris did not; they each topped 300 PPR points. Cincinnati Bengals starter Joe Mixon came close and surely the Titans' Henry would have surpassed the mark had he not missed half the season with a foot injury. Doesn't Henry feel safer than McCaffrey, though? Henry has had one injury, albeit it a serious one. With the smaller McCaffrey, it's a bunch of physical issues few would label as chronic, but they keep happening. He's a master at breaking tackles, but perhaps, even at 26, his body can no longer handle the punishment.
Ultimately with McCaffrey and Trout, it comes down to comfort level. I ranked Trout outside my top 20 for preseason drafts and, based on the current fantasy baseball Player Rater, even I was too generous. With a modest batting average, only one stolen base and double-digit missed games by the All-Star break, Trout is barely top-50 on the Rater.
McCaffrey's sport is considerably different, of course. Perhaps he rocks in 10 of Carolina's games and his wise fantasy investors are able to roster enough running back depth -- perhaps even Carolina's depth -- to overcome the absences. It is a reasonable strategy. Perhaps McCaffrey doesn't miss any games at all. Based on the past two seasons, however, that seems unlikely. I rank McCaffrey as a borderline first-rounder and inside my overall PPR top 10, but not among the top five running backs. We cannot ignore the durability factor. The Mike Trout of fantasy football surely offers significant value, but don't overlook the mighty risk, too.