It may not seem like it today, but everyone loved Trevor Lawrence one year ago. There was no debate. While most of the fantasy football world knew it would not need to rely on the league's No. 1 overall draft pick anytime soon for statistics, since quarterback is so deep and rookie passers seldom thrive right away, few thought Lawrence would struggle as a pro. Then again, few realized just how dysfunctional the Jacksonville Jaguars would be under incompetent coach Urban Meyer. It was historically embarrassing, and the best thing we can do in fantasy is just forget it all happened.
So, let's reintroduce everyone to quarterback Trevor Lawrence! When coached properly, he should thrive, and Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach with knowledge, experience and, put simply, he knows what he is doing. When protected by a reasonable offensive line -- and the current group of Jaguars looks better than it did a season ago -- he should thrive. When presented with young, healthy targets to rely on in the passing and running game, well, you get the picture. Lawrence will thrive. Everything is different this season in Jacksonville. Nobody's saying the Jaguars will win the Super Bowl, or even sniff a playoff spot, but things are better.
Lawrence, lest we forget, is regarded as a generational quarterback talent, standing at 6-foot-6 with elite arm strength and accuracy, the touch to make any throw and the speed and elusiveness to make plays with his legs. Lawrence struggled -- and he did struggle -- as a first-year player due to the circus around him. Not only was the coaching pitiful, he had little support around him. Former Clemson teammate, running back Travis Etienne Jr., selected later in the first round the same day Lawrence went first, missed the season with a foot injury. The depleted wide receiver corps underwhelmed. Receivers ran the wrong routes. Confused blockers didn't help him. It was a mess.
Pederson enters with a history of improving young quarterbacks, of productive, efficient offensive playcalling, and wisely utilizing talented weapons to create an intriguing offense.
Do yourself a favor and ignore Lawrence's ugly statistics. They simply do not matter anymore. Everyone loved him for good reason. Lawrence tried to overcome the mess around him, showing poise under pressure, throwing the football downfield, taking appropriate chances when able. He made quick decisions, hardly acting like a rookie and holding onto the football too long, and gave his receivers chances to succeed. He knew when to throw the ball away, and it shows in his low but irrelevant completion percentage. Watching tape of his interceptions shows some of the folly, with bobbled passes and receivers running soft or incorrect routes with little separation. Lawrence threw interceptions in only three of the final 10 games.
This new offense will feature more balance and should be among the most improved in the league. Is it enough to make Lawrence a QB1 in fantasy? Perhaps, but there's no need to go there quite yet, not with so much depth. Lawrence is one of the smartest to secure later on in multi-QB formats. Expect a run at 4,000 passing yards and more than 25 touchdown passes, at the minimum. Those are Matt Ryan numbers and there is nothing wrong with the former Atlanta Falcons and current Indianapolis Colts passer, but take a chance on upside. Go with Lawrence ahead of Minnesota Vikings starter Kirk Cousins and Tennessee Titans starter Ryan Tannehill, too. We've seen their best and it's fine, good enough in some leagues. We haven't seen Lawrence's best. We will soon.
Other second-year quarterbacks
Zach Wilson, New York Jets: I feel quite similarly about Wilson, who, as in the case of Lawrence started from Day 1 and had little chance to succeed based on what was around him. Wilson, the No. 2 pick after Lawrence, struggled more with accuracy on shorter, intermediate throws, but he has the arm strength and we saw the passing upside at BYU. The Jets are helping Wilson, having selected Ohio State star Garrett Wilson and Iowa State running back Breece Hall to energize the moribund offense. It should work. Don't look at the rookie passing numbers for Lawrence or Wilson. Dream big.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: The No. 3 pick in the draft offers quite a different skill set than Lawrence and Wilson in that while he should be able to make all the throws, he is an elite runner as well. One can easily see a statistical pathway similar to Philadelphia Eagles starter Jalen Hurts, who so far does just enough as a passer and offers top-5 fantasy quarterback upside due to the enticement of rushing yards and touchdowns. Lance made two starts as a rookie, as Jimmy Garoppolo ran the offense. Garoppolo is still here, though probably not for long. Those dreaming really big would secure Lance over Lawrence and Wilson. He can simply do more if given a chance and he reaches his upside.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: Not to belabor previous points, but Fields also never had much chance due to questionable coaching and the mess around him. An elite runner, it seemed as if the Bears stifled him in that sense and directed him to stay in the pocket. Fields could be Jalen Hurts, too. He is a dynamic runner. One big difference is the Eagles brought in offensive weapons for their young quarterback, while the Bears, well, they may start Byron Pringle. A new coaching staff may unleash Fields in a proper way, though. Fields can make all the throws, but the Bears should give him more tools to succeed.
Mac Jones, New England Patriots: Venerable Patriots coach Bill Belichick could not care less about fantasy football and wasn't looking for statistical upside when he selected Jones with the 15th pick out of Alabama in 2021. He desired a mature, mistake-free leader to win games right away, and he got that as Jones started a playoff game. He finished second in NFL AP Offensive Rookie of the Year voting to Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase, but barely in the top 20 among quarterbacks for fantasy points, falling short of 4,000 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes and there is little expectation of Jones adding to his stats in future seasons. Still, he is safe, with a reasonable statistical floor. One can do worse.
Davis Mills, Houston Texans: Mills, a third-round pick from Stanford, started 11 games in his first season, and he played surprisingly well in the final five games, averaging 251 passing yards per game with a 68% completion percentage and nine touchdown passes versus two interceptions. Mills is not mobile, offering next to nothing with his legs, and the Texans don't offer a great receiving corps after Brandin Cooks, but there is QB2 upside.