Plain and simple, NFL players are unable to sustain high touchdown production. It's not a knock on their talent -- scoring is more about opportunity than it is talent.
During the 2007 to 2014 seasons, there were 410 instances where a player totaled seven or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 323 (78.8 percent) scored fewer touchdowns the next season. Of the 58 occasions when a player eclipsed 12 scores, 53 (91.4 percent) scored fewer the next season and the average dip was 7.1.
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we're in a new era of stat tracking in which we can better examine each player's role. In this story, I'll be referencing opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD), which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it's how many touchdowns a league average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below players' 2015 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.
Note: This is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Tyler Eifert | Bengals
2015 OTD: 6.9 | TDs: 13
Eifert is the unquestioned poster boy for this story after he scored on 13 of his 14 targets while within 1 yard of the goal line last season. That includes 10-of-11 on end zone targets. For perspective, the leaguewide conversion rate on balls thrown in this range is 37 percent. For additional perspective, Rob Gronkowski's career rate is 57 percent (42-of-74).
In a nutshell, there's no chance Eifert can sustain anything close to his scoring rate from 2015. Eifert figures to miss a game or three this year because of an ankle injury, but he was a near lock for touchdown regression regardless. Fortunately for his fantasy prospects, Eifert's target share only figures to increase following the departure of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu.
2016 projection: 6 (13 games)
Doug Baldwin | Seahawks
2015 OTD: 6.0 | TDs: 14
In what was a truly epic turnaround in the touchdown department, Baldwin caught 14 touchdowns last year after totaling 15 during his first five seasons in the league. Most of the boost in production can be attributed to an increase in volume -- and a much higher conversion rate -- on targets near the goal line.
During the five years prior, Baldwin had scored on 12 of 27 targets while within 5 yards of the end zone. Last season, he scored on 12 of 16 targets in the same area. Per OTD, his expected touchdown total on those targets was 4.8. Especially with Tyler Lockett emerging and Jimmy Graham and Thomas Rawls back from injury, it's very possible that Baldwin's touchdown total will be cut in half this season
2016 projection: 7
Allen Robinson | Jaguars
2015 OTD: 10.7 | TDs: 14
Although Robinson is a terrific player and will, once again, enjoy a massive target share, it's extremely unlikely that he will come close to matching his 2015 touchdown total. On the plus side, his 19 end zone targets were fifth most in the league last season. He caught a league-high 11, however, and history tells us that he's unlikely to sustain that efficiency.
Additionally, the Jacksonville offense called pass 68 percent of the time and scored 88 percent of its touchdowns through the air last season. Both ranked second in the league. It's fair to expect those numbers to drop after the team invested heavily in its defense and running back Chris Ivory during the offseason. Robinson is 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and clearly a favorite target of Blake Bortles near the goal line. He's a good bet to rank near the top of the position in touchdowns, but don't count on his inflated 2015 total.
2016 projection: 8
Allen Hurns | Jaguars
2015 OTD: 6.5 | TDs: 10
That's right -- both of the Jaguars' standout wide receivers are in line for a dip in production this season. Hurns was one of 2015's top breakout performers at the position, but he benefited from the Jaguars' aforementioned pass-heavy offense, as well as a bit of luck in the touchdown department. Hurns scored on 6 of 11 end zone targets and added two more scores on four targets within 2 yards of the end zone. Hurns' other two scores came after post-catch runs of 40 and 60 yards.
Hurns' 6-foot-3 frame suggests he'll always be in the mix for goal line work, but the presence of Robinson, Julius Thomas, T.J. Yeldon and Ivory makes the 2014 undrafted free agent a sure bet for a major dip in touchdown production in 2016.
2016 projection: 6
Karlos Williams | Bills
2015 OTD: 3.2 | TDs: 9
Yes, I know. Williams is suspended for four games. That has nothing to do with his presence on this list. Williams defied logic by scoring a touchdown on nine of his 104 rookie-season touches and already was grossly overvalued in fantasy drafts prior to his suspension and offseason weight issues.
Williams made his mark with big plays last year. His three carries within 8 yards of the goal line (he scored on all three) tied for 68th in the league. His other four rushing scores came from distances of 11, 26, 38 and 41 yards. Williams also scored on two of his 13 receiving targets, one of which came from 1 yard out and the other after an 11-yard post-catch run. Williams will not be a good bet for touchdowns even when he returns from suspension.
2016 projection: 2 (11 games)
Ted Ginn Jr. | Panthers
2015 OTD: 5.7 | TDs: 10
Similar to Baldwin, Ginn nearly matched his career touchdown reception total (11) in 15 games last season. Whereas many players on this list racked up touchdowns thanks to unsustainable efficiency near the end zone, Ginn padded his total with a handful of long catch-and-run scores. He caught five of his eight end zone targets, but ran the other half of his scores in from 2, 13, 13, 14 and 46 yards out.
Ginn was going to score fewer touchdowns regardless, but the return of Kelvin Benjamin and emergence of Devin Funchess is sure to have a devastating impact on his statistical production.
2016 projection: 3
Tavon Austin | Rams
2015 OTD: 4.0 | TDs: 9
Austin is a bit of a unique animal as he is a wide receiver who also plays a significant role as a rusher. Austin's 52 receptions ranked 30th at the position last season, but his 52 carries were 35 more than any other wide receiver.
Extremely undersized, the 5-foot-8, 176-pound Austin entered 2015 with seven career offensive touchdowns. He's rarely used near the goal line, which makes his impending touchdown regression fairly obvious. Austin was limited to three end zone targets last year and caught none. His five touchdown receptions required post-catch scampers of 1, 6, 10, 21 and 71 yards. Incredibly, Austin scored on all four of his carries within 21 yards of the opponent's goal line last season. They came from distances of 2, 5, 16 and 21 yards. Coach Jeff Fisher has laughably suggested Austin could double his 2015 catch total, but he'll need significantly more work near the goal line in order to sustain last season's touchdown production.
2016 projection: 4
Kirk Cousins | Redskins
2015 OTD: 2.3 | TDs: 5
This is your reminder that this study is limited to rushing and receiving scores. Despite ranking 22nd in carries (26) and 29th in rushing yardage (48) among quarterbacks last season, Cousins' five rushing scores were third most at the position. He scored on all three of his attempts within 3 yards of the goal line. The other two scores were generated from four additional red zone attempts. Cousins will need to run the ball more often -- an unlikely development -- if he hopes to come anywhere close to his five rushing scores last season.
2016 projection: 2