Fantasy football leagues aren't won during the first few rounds of your draft. Much to our chagrin, guys underwhelm and/or go down with injuries. For this reason, it's important to become familiar not only with superstars but also with role players and emerging youngsters who could find themselves on the fantasy radar during the 2016 season.
Last year, the likes of John Brown, Kamar Aiken, Ted Ginn Jr., Donte Moncrief, Rishard Matthews, Stefon Diggs, Willie Snead, James Jones and Tyler Lockett entered the season third or lower on their respective team's depth chart. It didn't take long for each to land in the fantasy spotlight, though.
With that in mind, I have ranked the current No. 3 wide receivers for each NFL team in terms of expected 2016 fantasy production -- not strictly on skill. As you'll see in the explanations, scheme, playing-time security and supporting cast are among the other variables in play.
Some of these players are worth your attention on draft day, while others are names to scoop up in dynasty leagues or to file away for later.
1. Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals
Why Floyd and not Brown? Floyd averaged 42.6 snaps per game last season, compared to 52.2 for Brown. Of course, even if we flip-flop the two, Brown would be ranked first in this list. Arizona was in the middle of the pack in three-wide sets but had a fourth wide receiver on the field on 23 percent of pass plays last year, which was second-highest in the league. Put another way, Cardinals coaches found reps for J.J. Nelson without impacting the snap counts of Brown, Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona's pass-first, high-scoring offense can support three receivers, which supplies Floyd with WR2 upside.
2. Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Thomas may eventually move past Snead in terms of target priority, but he'll start out third in line at the position. A rookie, Thomas is ticketed for Marques Colston's "big slot" role, which should generate plenty of volume, and his 6-foot-3 frame is sure to lead to a lot of work near the goal line. There's been some speculation that Brandon Coleman could push for this job, but that's hard to believe after he quickly lost his job to Snead last season. On the negative side for Thomas, New Orleans has ranked no higher than 19th in the league in three-wide sets when passing over the past five years. Still, the presence of Drew Brees and a fairly clear path to targets put Thomas squarely in the flex discussion.
3. Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis Colts
Andre Johnson is no longer in the picture, which locks Dorsett in as the club's No. 3 receiver behind T.Y. Hilton and Moncrief. Having relied heavily on Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, the Colts haven't used a ton of three-wide sets during the Andrew Luck era, but they were in the upper half of the league last season and Fleener is now out of the mix. Common sense (not to mention the insight of Colts analyst Mike Wells) suggests Dorsett -- a 2015 first-round pick -- will be on the field over tight ends Jack Doyle or Erik Swoope when the team is passing. Considering the Colts' pass-heavy, high-scoring attack, it's not inconceivable that Dorsett will flirt with WR3 numbers as the team's third option in the passing game.
4. Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens' wide receiver depth chart is a bit tricky to sort out. Steve Smith Sr. will return as Joe Flacco's top target, but after that, newcomer Mike Wallace, 2015 breakout player Aiken and 2015 first-round pick Breshad Perriman are battling for snaps. Baltimore had its third wide receiver on the field for 62 percent of its pass plays last year, which ranked 27th. The added receiver depth might seem to suggest that number will rise in 2016, but that's not necessarily going to be the case after the Ravens added tight end Benjamin Watson to a unit that also includes Maxx Williams, Crockett Gillmore and Dennis Pitta. Aiken's playing time is a question mark, but he could very well lead this team in targets. He's worth targeting in the mid-to-late stages of your draft.
5. Jaelen Strong, Houston Texans
Strong is generating a lot of offseason hype, and it's very possible that he'll end up second on the depth chart in Houston. I'm still giving a slight edge to Will Fuller, who was selected in the first round of April's draft and is coming off the board earlier than Strong in summer fantasy drafts. Strong, a third-round selection in 2015, will compete with Fuller, Cecil Shorts III and Braxton Miller for reps. Although Houston relies heavily on its defense and running game, the offense ranked 11th in three-wide sets and was one of only three teams with a fourth receiver on the field more than 10 percent of the time when passing last year. Strong is an intriguing post-hype sleeper, but he's still a raw 22-year-old with an unproven quarterback in Brock Osweiler. Strong has enough breakout potential to warrant a late-round flier.
6. Sammie Coates, Pittsburgh Steelers
Martavis Bryant's season-long suspension leaves Coates positioned to work as the Steelers' No. 3 receiver this season. The 2015 third-round pick will compete with Darrius Heyward-Bey and slot man Eli Rogers for the gig, and could eventually push past Markus Wheaton into the starting lineup. During offensive coordinator Todd Haley's four seasons with the Steelers, only six teams have had a third receiver on the field more often when passing (74 percent). So, even while working behind Wheaton and Antonio Brown, Coates shouldn't have much trouble seeing the field. The size/speed freak is well worth a midround flier.
7. Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee Titans
The Titans' depth chart also has many question marks. Green-Beckham had (and still sort of has) the look of a 2016 breakout player, but he's already fallen behind fifth-round rookie Tajae Sharpe. Meanwhile, Matthews is locked in as the starting flanker and Kendall Wright is the slot. Even worse for Green-Beckham, the Titans had a third receiver on the field on 39 percent of their pass plays last season, which was lowest in the league. A clear commitment to the run in 2016 suggests a move to more three-wide sets is unlikely. Green-Beckham will be one of the most intriguing players to watch over the next month or so, as his fantasy ceiling is massive.
8. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
He entered 2015, his second season, with Jordy Nelson out for the year with a torn ACL, and thus was positioned well for a breakout. It didn't happen. Adams struggled with both injury and ineffectiveness and is no longer assured of an every-down role. Of course, at least at this point in the offseason, Adams remains the favorite over Ty Montgomery, Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis for the No. 3 gig. This is important, because Green Bay has had its third wide receiver on the field when passing more than any other team in the league each of the past three seasons. That includes a whopping 94 percent of the time in 2015. Adams is a post-hype sleeper because of his situation, but it's also possible that he won't even make the 53-man roster.
9. Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu are out of the picture in Cincinnati, which all but locks Brandon LaFell and Boyd into significant roles in their first season with the club. Boyd is only 21 years old and, at least in 2016, is more likely to operate as something like an "offensive weapon" than a conventional wide receiver. The Bengals have ranked in the lower half of the league in three-wide sets when passing each of the past three seasons. The rookie's ceiling doesn't figure to be very high out of the gate.
10. Chris Conley, Kansas City Chiefs
Conley is a bit of a forgotten man these days, but Kansas City actually increased Jeremy Maclin's slot work down the stretch last season in order to get Conley on the perimeter. The 2015 third-round pick stands 6-foot-3 and sports 4.35 wheels. Conley is more likely to overtake Albert Wilson than he is to lose reps to newcomers Rod Streater, Demarcus Robinson and Tyreek Hill. The bad news is that the Chiefs rarely have a third receiver on the field when passing. Since Andy Reid took over in 2013, they rank 27th in the category (62 percent). Alex Smith's conservative play limits Conley's ceiling, but he's a Maclin injury away from jumping into the WR3 conversation.
11. Ted Ginn Jr., Carolina Panthers
Ginn caught 10 touchdowns last season, but he enters 2016 in a fight with the likes of Corey Brown and Damiere Byrd for the role as the team's speed/deep threat. Ginn played 43 snaps per game last season, but that figure is sure to drop with Kelvin Benjamin back to full health and second-year receiver Devin Funchess primed for a bigger role. Even more damning for Ginn is Carolina's offensive personnel usage. The team had a third receiver on the field just under half the time when passing last year. They ranked 31st in the category. A boom/bust producer facing a smaller workload, Ginn will be more useful in DFS tournaments than in season-long leagues.
12. Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins
I badly wanted to include rookie Josh Doctson here, but it's impossible to label him as anything more than an elite handcuff at the position. DeSean Jackson is the starting split end, Pierre Garcon is the flanker and Crowder is the slot. If any of the three go down with an injury or aren't carrying their weight, Doctson's role will increase, but he's more likely to make a splash in the second half or in 2017, when contract-year players Jackson and Garcon could be out of the mix. As for Crowder, Washington uses a lot of three-wide sets when passing, ranking fourth in the category last season (82 percent). Snap count won't be an issue (at least early on), but as we saw last year, he's well behind Jackson, Garcon and Jordan Reed on the target totem pole. Take a flier in deep PPR leagues.
13. Anquan Boldin, Detroit Lions
Over the past few years, the Lions have relied very little on their third and fourth receivers. The reason for this was massive target shares for Calvin Johnson and the running back position. Despite that fact, Detroit had a third receiver on the field for 82 percent of its pass plays last year, which ranked sixth in the league. In fact, the Lions have ranked no lower than 11th in the category over the past three years. Johnson, of course, retired, and Marvin Jones and Boldin were signed to work in three-wide sets along with Golden Tate. Boldin turns 36 this year and is expected to be fifth in the pecking order for targets. This is a high-volume pass offense, but Boldin offers little fantasy upside.
14. Rueben Randle, Philadelphia Eagles
Some have projected that Randle will move past Nelson Agholor in Philadelphia, but (A) Randle's four years of underwhelming play suggests that won't happen, and (B) at least for now, Agholor has a leg up for the job. Randle, meanwhile, will also need to fend off the likes of Josh Huff and Chris Givens for snaps in an offense that may not rely heavily on three-wide sets. As noted earlier, the Chiefs have rarely used their third receiver when passing during Reid's three years as coach. New Eagles coach Doug Pederson was Reid's offensive coordinator during that span. Randle is barely worth considering in the late rounds.
15. Victor Cruz, New York Giants
Cruz's status remains a bit of a mystery after he missed 10 games in 2014 (torn patella tendon) and the entire 2015 season (calf). The 29-year-old is, at a minimum, behind Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Sterling Shepard on the depth chart, but if healthy, he has little competition for reps in an offense that almost always has a third receiver on the field when passing. The Giants ranked second in the category during both of Ben McAdoo's seasons as offensive coordinator. McAdoo, of course, is now the team's head coach. If Cruz's status were clearer, he'd certainly be higher on this list, but it's likely we've already seen his best play.
16. Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks
Doug Baldwin is Russell Wilson's new go-to target, and Lockett has taken control of the No. 2 gig in Seattle. That leaves the recently resigned Kearse as the clear-cut third receiver. Paul Richardson is a name to watch, but the 2014 second-rounder has barely seen the field due to injury. Considering the Seahawks are able to run so often, it may surprise you to know that they actually ranked ninth in three-wide sets when passing last year. That's good news for Kearse's prospects in the snap department, but he's still unlikely to see consistent targets in Seattle's low-volume, spread-it-around attack.
17. Justin Hardy, Atlanta Falcons
Hardy is a popular deep sleeper this season. The 2015 fourth-round pick is in position for a significant role in an Atlanta offense devoid of much receiving talent past Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman. In fact, Hardy very well could overtake Sanu with a strong start this season. Past that, Hardy's primary competition for snaps will come from Aldrick Robinson, Devin Fuller and return specialist Eric Weems. Of course, the Atlanta offense doesn't rely much on its wide receiver depth. The Falcons ranked 21st in three-wide sets when passing last season (67 percent) and prioritized tight end over wideout in April's draft (third-round pick Austin Hooper). Hardy is a name to file away but is barely worth draft-day consideration.
18. Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins
New coach Adam Gase has had a lot of success as the offensive coordinator in Denver and Chicago over the past three years. He'll look to bring some of that to Miami this season, which would benefit top receivers Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, and also Stills and rookie Leonte Carroo. Speaking of Carroo, though Stills gets veteran deference here, it won't be long until the third-rounder is pushing hard for Stills' job. Gase has made heavy use of three-wide sets thus far in his coaching career; his offenses have ranked fourth, fifth and 10th in the category. Expect that trend to continue after the Carroo addition. Stills is buried here because he could easily lose this gig, but if either Stills or Carroo nails down this job, he should be boosted into the top 10 of these rankings.
19. Seth Roberts, Oakland Raiders
Roberts surprisingly won the Raiders' No. 3 gig last year and kept a stranglehold on it throughout the season, despite mostly pedestrian production. His competition for 2016 snaps isn't much better, with Andre Holmes and rookies Max McCaffrey and Johnny Holton in the discussion. Although Oakland makes good use of fullbacks Marcel Reece and Jamize Olawale, as well as tight ends Lee Smith, Clive Walford and Mychal Rivera, the team's wide receivers stay busy. The Raiders ranked 14th in three-wide and seventh in four-wide sets when throwing last season. Roberts will enter the flex discussion in the event of an injury to Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree, but has little weekly value otherwise.
20. Rashad Greene, Jacksonville Jaguars
Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have a stranglehold on starting gigs, which leaves Greene as the favorite over Marqise Lee for the No. 3 job. Greene is the team's projected slot receiver, but if he stumbles, it's worth noting that the team isn't afraid to move Hurns inside and use Lee on the perimeter. The Jaguars ranked 26th in three-wide sets when passing last season, and that doesn't figure to change much with Julius Thomas and Marcedes Lewis both healthy. Greene is a hold in deep PPR leagues, but nothing more.
21. Tyrell Williams, San Diego Chargers
This spot would've been filled by Stevie Johnson, but his 2016 season is in doubt after he suffered a torn meniscus in July. Johnson's injury locks in field-stretcher and Malcom Floyd-replacement Travis Benjamin in as the team's No. 2 receiver. Meanwhile, Williams will compete with the likes of Dontrelle Inman and Javontee Herndon for the club's No. 3 receiver gig. Williams is an intriguing size/speed specimen. The 2015 undrafted free agent stands 6-foot-4, weighs 205 pounds and sports 4.4 wheels. As for San Diego's personnel usage, after having a third receiver on the field on 86 percent of pass plays in 2014 (third-highest), the mark dipped to 69 percent (17th) in 2015. Yes, Ladarius Green is gone, but Hunter Henry was added in the second round of April's draft. Williams is an intriguing prospect in a good offense, which makes him a name worth monitoring.
22. Devin Smith, New York Jets
Smith is dealing with a knee injury and might start 2016 on the PUP list. When healthy, however, he's a name to keep an eye on. The Jets easily led the NFL in four-wide-receiver sets last season (51 percent), and Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker both finished as top-10 fantasy receivers. Once Smith returns, he will play a lot regardless, but he's a Marshall or Decker injury away from receiving a huge target boost. A 2015 second-rounder, Smith is a post-hype sleeper worth monitoring.
23. Dezmin Lewis, Buffalo Bills
The Bills were expected to address the wide receiver position this offseason, but fifth-round pick Kolby Listenbee was their most notable addition. A healthy Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods are the starters, which places Lewis, a seventh-round pick in 2015, in a competition with Listenbee, Leonard Hankerson and Greg Salas for the No. 3 job. Lewis stands 6-foot-4 and has generated a lot of hype during offseason workouts. Likely because the Bills lacked depth at the position, the Bills ranked 29th in three-plus wide receiver sets when passing last season (57 percent). Buffalo's weak receiver unit has Lewis in the sleeper discussion, but at this point in the offseason, it's also possible he won't even make the team.
24. Adam Humphries, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A lot of offseason hype was directed at second-year receiver Kenny Bell, but coach Dirk Koetter recently named Humphries the team's No. 3 receiver. The slot man is currently positioned to work behind Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson but will need to fend off Bell, Louis Murphy, Russell Shepard, Donteea Dye and Evan Spencer. Koetter joined the Tampa Bay organization as the team's offensive coordinator last year, and the Bucs ranked 19th in three-plus wide receiver sets (69 percent). The Buccaneers' offense is a candidate for a leap forward in Jameis Winston's second-season, but Humphries will need a strong preseason in order to qualify for late-round consideration in PPR leagues.
25. Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys
There were few organizations with less talent at the wide receiver position than Dallas last season, but the team did almost nothing to address the position during the offseason. That leaves Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams as the starters and Beasley in the slot. Dallas has ranked in the lower half of the league in three-plus wide receiver sets each of the past three seasons. Beasley has four career top-20 weekly finishes on his resume and has never finished a season better than 56th in fantasy points at the position. He's worth a look only in deep PPR formats.
26. Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns
Higgins was the last of four wide receivers selected by Cleveland in April's draft (and that doesn't include TE/WR tweener Seth Devalve). Higgins is running ahead of fellow rookies Ricardo Louis and Jordan Payton, however, and is the favorite for early-season No. 3 duties behind Corey Coleman and slot man Andrew Hawkins. Of course, once Josh Gordon returns from suspension, Higgins will struggle to see the field. New Browns coach Hue Jackson operated as Cincinnati's offensive coordinator the past two years. The Bengals ranked right in the middle of the league in three-wise sets when passing during that span. Jackson ran the Raiders' offense in 2010 and '11, and the team ranked below average in the category both seasons. Cleveland's inevitable 2016 struggles will mean a lot of garbage-time opportunity for its receivers, but scoring opportunity simply won't be there for Higgins & Co.
27. Cody Latimer, Denver Broncos
Latimer was far from the Broncos' No. 3 receiver last season, often ceding snaps to the likes of Andre Caldwell, Jordan Norwood and Bennie Fowler. Caldwell is gone, leaving Latimer to compete with the latter two for snaps. To date, Latimer has been a bust, but the 2014 second-round pick is only 23 years old as he enters his third professional season. He is 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds and entered the league with great hands and 4.39 wheels. On the other hand, coach Gary Kubiak's offense is unlikely to breed many snaps for the club's reserve receivers. During the past nine seasons, Kubiak has been the head coach in Houston (2006-13), the offensive coordinator in Baltimore (2014) and the head coach in Denver (2015). In terms of three-plus wide sets when passing, his offenses have ranked 22nd, 27th, 22nd, 36th, 32nd, 31st, 29th, 31st and 13th, respectively. The latter was last season in Denver but was more indicative of the team's adjustments to Peyton Manning than of Kubiak's philosophy. Expect Denver to lean on run-heavy sets this season, which is bad news for Latimer.
28. Danny Amendola, New England Patriots
This might seem awfully low for the No. 3 receiver on the high-scoring Patriots, but this is far from a conventional offense. Over the past six seasons, only San Francisco (41 percent) has had its third wide receiver on the field when passing less often than New England (52 percent). If anything, the Patriots figure to use more two tight end sets after trading for Martellus Bennett during the offseason. Even worse for Amendola, with Chris Hogan in the mix, Amendola is no longer assured of a big role in the event of a Julian Edelman injury. The likes of Malcolm Mitchell, Keshawn Martin, Aaron Dobson and Nate Washington will push Amendola for snaps.
29. Eddie Royal, Chicago Bears
Despite handling 50 snaps per game during the nine games he played last season, Royal was limited to 238 yards and one score on 37 receptions. Now, Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White are back to full health, which leaves Royal without an every-down role. He's unlikely to face any real competition from the likes of Marquess Wilson and Deonte Thompson, but Royal will be limited to slot duties in a run-heavy offense. The Bears did rank 10th in three-wide sets last season, but that could change with Gase out and Dowell Loggains in at offensive coordinator. Royal is safe to ignore on draft day.
30. Quinton Patton, San Francisco 49ers
Anquan Boldin is gone, but early indications are that Bruce Ellington -- not Patton -- will jump into the starting lineup opposite Torrey Smith. That leaves Patton to compete with Eric Rogers, Jerome Simpson, Aaron Burbridge and DeAndre Smelter not only for the No. 3 job but also for a roster spot. Additionally, Ellington is the projected slot receiver in Chip Kelly's offense, which was a role that allowed Jordan Matthews to pace Eagles wide receivers in fantasy points over the past two seasons. On the plus side, during the Kelly era in Philadelphia, only the Packers, Giants and Dolphins (hello, Green Bay coaching tree) had a third receiver on the field more often when passing. Even if Patton ends up playing significant snaps, San Francisco's shaky quarterback situation leaves him without much upside.
31. Pharoh Cooper, Los Angeles Rams
A case could probably be made that Brian Quick is the Rams' No. 3 receiver behind Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt. However, like Austin and Britt, Quick is primarily a perimeter receiver. Last season, he spent a lot of time on the bench, which allowed Bradley Marquez and Wes Welker to handle slot duties. The Rams selected Cooper in the fourth round of April's draft, and he immediately becomes the favorite for the slot gig. The Rams ranked 23rd (67 percent) in three-wide sets last season, and that number doesn't figure to move much in the team's run-heavy offense. Cooper is nothing more than a sleeper in deep PPR leagues.
32. Jarius Wright, Minnesota Vikings
Wright signed a long-term extension with Minnesota, but with Diggs and Laquon Treadwell in the picture, Wright is far from a serious threat to crack the starting lineup anytime soon. Although he is the heavy favorite for No. 3/slot duty out of the gate, he very well could lose reps to Charles Johnson and/or Moritz Bohringer this season. The Vikings operate a very conservative, run-heavy offense, which limits both plays and reps for reserve receivers. The Vikes ranked 24th (65 percent) in three-wide sets and didn't use any four-wide sets when passing last year. Wright can be ignored on draft day.