One of my favorite exercises each offseason is to go back to evaluate my predictions and projections from the previous year. Whether it's team record predictions, fantasy rankings or bold takes, I find it's a good way to tweak and improve "the process."
History has shown that predicting touchdown regression is significantly easier than you might imagine, especially in a sport so complicated to project. Last year's version of this article proved this yet again.
Here were the eight players featured and how things played out:
In each case, the player scored fewer touchdowns in 2016, and most came in pretty close to expected. This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply can't sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent; scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good, I have it.
From 2007 to 2015, there were 245 instances in which a player totaled nine or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those, a whopping 207 times (84.5 percent) the player scored fewer touchdowns the next season, and the average dip was 4.8. Of the 64 occasions when a player scored 13 or more TDs, 59 times (92.2 percent) he scored fewer the next season (average dip of 7.0). Of the 25 instances in which a player scored 15-plus touchdowns, 100 percent of the time that player scored fewer TDs the next season. In 2016, David Johnson (20), LeGarrette Blount (18) and Ezekiel Elliott (16) hit that mark.
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD). In this piece, I'll be referencing OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of 2016 usage for the players below tells us that we should expect a drop in their scoring production this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Kenny Stills | Miami Dolphins
2016 TDs: 9 | OTD: 3.9
From 2007 to 2015, 68 players posted a season in which they scored on at least 15 percent of their receptions (minimum 40 receptions). Of those, 63 players (92.6 percent) scored fewer touchdowns the next season, with an average dip of 5.6 scores. Three players made the cut for this damning list last season. They are Stills (42 receptions, 9 TDs), Davante Adams (75, 12) and Dez Bryant (50, 8). Stills' target share increased down the stretch and he signed a four-year, $32 million contract extension during the offseason, but he'll need significantly more volume in order to match his 2016 touchdown total. That's unlikely in a run-heavy offense that will also need to keep Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Julius Thomas busy.
2017 Projection: 5
Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson | Green Bay Packers
Adams' 2016 TDs: 12 | OTD: 7.8
Nelson's 2016 TDs: 14 | OTD: 10.6
In the past decade, there have been eight seasons in which a Packers wide receiver scored nine-plus touchdowns. All seven who played the next season scored fewer touchdowns. After scoring four touchdowns and registering nine end zone targets during his first two NFL seasons, Adams busted out to the tune of 12 scores in 2016. Fantasy's No. 9 scoring wideout caught seven of his 16 end zone targets (fifth-most). Nelson, meanwhile, racked up 20 end zone targets, which trailed only Mike Evans for most in the league. Nelson caught 12 of them and required post-catch runs of 1 and 13 yards on the other two scores. Nelson is a bold player to pick for a dip in scoring, considering he's found the end zone 13-plus times during three of his past five seasons, including his past two (he missed all of 2015). However, as noted earlier, history suggests at least a slight dip. Even with the projected drop, Nelson and Adams will find paydirt often as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center.
2017 Projection: Adams 8, Nelson 10
LeGarrette Blount | Philadelphia Eagles
2016 TDs: 18 | OTD: 16.5
Blount paced the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns and 24 carries inside the 5-yard line last season. That, of course, came on a career-high 299 carries; he entered the year with 31 career rushing scores and 34 carries inside the 5. His OTD actually wasn't too far off his touchdown total and he'll remain the goal-line back in Philadelphia, but it's unreasonable to expect him to come close to matching his 2016 numbers in a lesser offense. As a nonfactor in the passing game, Blount's fantasy upside is capped, especially in PPR formats.
2017 Projection: 8
Tevin Coleman | Atlanta Falcons
2016 TDs: 11 | OTD: 5.1
One of the many benefactors of Atlanta's historic offensive season, Coleman scored 11 touchdowns on only 149 touches last season. Coleman's scoring rate is far from sustainable, especially when you consider that he registered only three carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (he scored on all three) and zero end zone targets. Interestingly, Coleman posted a 3.5 OTD as a rookie in 2015, but scored only one TD and was thus a candidate for a leap forward. He obviously did that and then some. He'll come back to earth along with the rest of the Falcons' offense in 2017.
2017 Projection: 7
Tyreek Hill | Kansas City Chiefs
2016 TDs: 9 | OTD: 4.9
One of last year's breakout players, Hill found the end zone on nine of his 83 offensive touches and added another three TDs as a returner. That's an unsustainable rate for anyone, let alone a 185-pounder who is rarely used near the goal line. Hill was limited to three end zone targets (120 players had more) and scored three rushing touchdowns despite one carry inside the opponent's 12 yard line. 2012 was the last year a player scored more than two special-teams touchdowns in a single season (Darius Reynaud and Jacoby Jones both pulled it off). Hill's volume will increase since Jeremy Maclin is gone, but Hill's scoring rate is sure to take a dive.
2017 Projection: 5 (6 including returns)
Ezekiel Elliott | Dallas Cowboys
2016 TDs: 16 | OTD: 9.5
Elliott has the unfortunate distinction of owning the largest gap between his OTD and touchdown total (6.5) last season. That's not a recipe for sustainability. Elliott was afforded 11 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (10th-most), but somehow managed 15 rushing scores. He scored on five of six carries from the 1-yard line, and eight of his scores came on runs of at least 8 yards. Zeke's lone receiving touchdown came from 87 yards out. Despite all the negativity I just threw out there, Elliott remains the workhorse in a run-heavy offense with a very good offensive line and is expected to see more passing-game work. Just beware that his 2016 scoring rate can't be counted on.
2017 Projection: 14
LeSean McCoy | Buffalo Bills
2016 TDs: 14 | OTD: 8.5
After combining for 10 touchdowns (14.0 OTD) during the 2014 and '15 seasons, McCoy exploded for 14 scores in 2016. He scored on four of his nine carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line and failed to see a single end zone target for the seventh time in his eight seasons. Tremendous blocking (league- and career-high 4.0 yards before contact) allowed McCoy a career-best 5.4 yards per carry and his highest touchdown total since 2011. He remains a workhorse and fantasy RB1, but we should be expecting McCoy to return to Earth in the scoring department this season.
2017 Projection: 9
Taylor Gabriel | Atlanta Falcons
2016 TDs: 7 | OTD: 2.3
Gabriel gained fantasy relevance thanks to the Falcons' incredible offensive 2016 season. He scored on six of his 36 receptions despite registering only one end zone target. Four of his scores required post-catch runs of at least 20 yards, and his one rushing touchdown came from 9 yards out (his only carry within 46 yards of the goal line). The Falcons' offense will still be pretty good this year, but Gabriel won't see enough volume to repeat of his 2016 scoring production.
2017 Projection: 4
Sterling Shepard | New York Giants
2016 TDs: 8 | OTD: 5.1
Shepard ranked 36th among wide receivers in receptions (65), but ninth in receiving touchdowns (eight) as a rookie. He scored on four of his seven end zone targets and four of his eight additional targets within 2 yards of the goal line. Especially with Brandon Marshall -- the NFL leader in end zone targets during the past decade with 180 -- now in the mix, Shepard is a good bet for less volume and scoring production in 2017. Shepard is recovering from a low-ankle sprain, but the below projection assumes he's back and ready to roll in Week 1.
2017 Projection: 5
Antonio Brown | Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 TDs: 12 | OTD: 8.5
The gap of 3.5 between Brown's 2016 touchdown total and OTD was the highest we've seen in his career. Yes, his touchdown total was similar to 2015 (10) and 2014 (13), but he also saw significantly more targets in those seasons (40 and 26 more, respectively, to be exact). Brown did tie for second in the league with 20 end zone targets last season, but he managed only three additional looks inside the 8-yard line and scored on all three. Brown is an absolute stud talent and target monster, but we shouldn't count on him to match his career-best 11.3 percent touchdown-per-reception rate in 2017.
2017 Projection: 8
David Johnson | Arizona Cardinals
2016 TDs: 20 | OTD: 17.3
So far in his career, Johnson has had a knack for exceeding reasonable expectations in the rushing touchdown department. Through two seasons, he sports a 17.9 rushing OTD, but has run for 24 touchdowns. His receiving numbers (7.9 OTD, 8 touchdowns) are as expected. Johnson racked up an obscene 373 touches last season, which included 22 carries inside the 5-yard line (second-most) and four end zone targets (most among RBs). That helped him to 20 scores, though, as noted earlier, 100 percent of players who have accrued 15-plus touchdowns in a season saw a dip the next season. Of course, Johnson won't be short massive volume again in 2017. Expect a drop in touchdowns, but he'll still be a fantasy superstar.
2017 Projection: 16
Jamison Crowder | Washington Redskins
2016 TDs: 7 | OTD: 3.9
Crowder ranked 49th among wide receivers with six end zone targets last season (three went for TDs) but was tied for 14th with seven touchdown catches. His other four touchdowns came on post-catch runs of 5, 8, 12 and 57 yards. Crowder is a candidate for a bigger role in Washington this year, but his 5-foot-8, 185-pound frame makes it a near lock he won't see much work near the goal line.
2017 Projection: 4
Robert Turbin | Indianapolis Colts
2016 TDs: 8 | OTD: 5.5
That is not a misprint; Turbin really did score eight touchdowns last season. He achieved the feat despite registering only 73 touches as Frank Gore's caddy. Incredibly, Turbin entered 2016 with three career touchdowns, zero career carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line and zero end zone targets. He vultured some work from Gore near the goal line, but that has been overstated for the most part. Turbin scored on all three of his carries from the opponent's 1-yard line and on four of his 11 additional tries inside the 10. His lone receiving score came on an end zone target, which happened to be one of his two targets within 20 yards of the end zone. Turbin will vulture a few more scores from Gore in 2017, but not nearly as much as last year. Gore, by the way, posted four rushing scores and a 6.4 rushing OTD.
2017 Projection: 4
Rishard Matthews | Tennessee Titans
2016 TDs: 9 | OTD: 6.8
Matthews wasn't a full-time player until midseason, but he still managed to score nine touchdowns on 65 receptions en route to finishing 22nd at the position in fantasy points. Matthews was afforded 12 end zone targets (he caught seven) after totaling nine during his first four seasons. His other two scores came from 2 yards out. Eric Decker and Corey Davis (both 6-foot-3) are now in the mix in Tennessee and are sure to handle plenty of work near the goal line.
2017 Projection: 5
Latavius Murray | Minnesota Vikings
2016 TDs: 12 | OTD: 10.2
Murray ran for 12 touchdowns last season, thanks to 16 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (both were fifth-most at the position). That came after he totaled eight rushing scores and 11 carries inside the 5 during the first two seasons of his career. Murray may be asked to handle goal-line duties in Minnesota, but he is unlikely to come close to matching his 2016 production with rookie Dalvin Cook ticketed for a big role.
2017 Projection: 4