Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos (versus Washington Football Team). The QB2 tier is loaded with attractive matchups plays during Week 8, but few stand out to Bridgewater's extent. Washington's defense sports a bevy of league-worst rankings: Most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (186.82, or 26.7 per game) and most Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed to the position (4.7) for the season, and most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (143.98, or 28.8 per game) and most points per pass attempt allowed (0.63) during the past five weeks. It's a defense that has pressured quarterbacks more lately, but gives up oodles of big plays via the air (fifth-worst rankings with both 6.9% touchdown and 9.0 yards after contact rates). Bridgewater might be one of the more conservative quarterbacks in the league, but with Jerry Jeudy's return to action in Week 7, he has a pair of deep-threat receivers he can utilize to exploit this defense (Courtland Sutton being the other).
Unfavorable matchup: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Arizona Cardinals). It's bad enough that he's on the short week, not to mention should be without starting wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, both of whom are on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but this matchup adds another negative to Rodgers' checklist. The Cardinals, off to a perfect 7-0 start in large part due to their No. 1 ranking in points allowed per game (16.3) and No. 4 in total yards allowed per game (316.7), have afforded an opposing quarterback 15 or more fantasy points just twice all year: Kirk Cousins (25.26 in Week 2) and Matthew Stafford (19.30, Week 4). In that game against Stafford, incidentally, these Cardinals gave top PPR fantasy football scorer Cooper Kupp his biggest headache to date in 2021, holding him to 11.4 points on 13 targets, underscoring just how well the team's cornerback pair of Robert Alford and Byron Murphy has fared in coverage. Rodgers is certainly talented, but it's difficult to see him as a top-10 positional play considering the circumstances.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles (at Detroit Lions). The Lions' defense has been a goldmine for fill-in and change-of-pace running backs this season, which is great news for the Eagles' Gainwell/Boston Scott combination, expected to fill in for the injured Miles Sanders (ankle) this week. Elijah Mitchell scored 16.4 PPR fantasy points against this defense in Week 1, Damien Williams managed 15.0 points against it largely in fourth-quarter relief of David Montgomery in Week 4, Alexander Mattison totaled 26.3 points against it in Week 5 and Chris Evans accrued 15.7 points against it in Week 6. For the season, the Lions have 6.2 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, third-most in the league, not to mention the most 20-point PPR performances afforded to opposing running backs (4, tied with the New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks). Gainwell gets my nod here ahead of Scott, in large part because of how much the Lions have struggled against pass-catching backs: Their 2.7 PPR fantasy points per target allowed to the position are by far the league's most.
Unfavorable matchup: Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at New Orleans Saints). His recent role expansion has made him a locked-in weekly RB2, as during the past four weeks he has scored the third-most PPR fantasy points among running backs (85.6), while totaling the second-most touches (84) and playing 66% of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps. This matchup, however, makes him one of the less-appealing choices from that tier, as the Saints have dominated running backs through six games, other than a pair of solid performances by a pair of pass-catching backs (Christian McCaffrey in Week 2, Saquon Barkley in Week 4). Fournette does bring that element to his game, which was an area in which he was particularly successful against this defense during last season's Divisional Playoffs (five catches for 44 yards and a touchdown on six targets), but he probably won't contribute much on the ground against a defense that has afforded running backs the fourth-fewest fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.48).
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (versus Tennessee Titans). Despite their dominant win against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7, the Titans have struggled mightily against the past this season. To illustrate, they have allowed 12-plus PPR fantasy points to multiple wide receivers in five of seven games this season, and in the past five weeks alone, they've afforded the position the third-most points (206.5). Cornerbacks Elijah Molden, Chris Jackson and Janoris Jenkins have been responsible for 75.6 of those points alone, as the nearest defenders to the wide receivers who have accrued them, and Jenkins in particular stands to see a lot of Pittman in Week 8. Pittman did score only 13.3 PPR fantasy points in these teams' Week 3 meeting, but his score might've been better had quarterback Carson Wentz been on target with an end-zone throw in that game. Expect a greater score in the rematch.
Unfavorable matchup: Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots (at Los Angeles Chargers). Along with the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, the Chargers are one of three teams that hasn't afforded an individual wide receiver as many as 17.5 PPR fantasy points in a game. They've faced some talented receivers during that time, too, including Terry McLaurin (10.2, Week 1), CeeDee Lamb (17.4, Week 2), Tyreek Hill (9.7, Week 3) and Marquise Brown (7.5, Week 6). Their cornerback play has a lot to do with it, as between Michael Davis, Chris Harris Jr. and Asante Samuel Jr., they've allowed a combined 65.9 PPR fantasy points on 213 coverage snaps. Meyers has been easily the Patriots' top receiving target this season, helped in recent weeks by the improved play of rookie quarterback Mac Jones, but this isn't a matchup that supports better than WR3 status.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (at Houston Texans). The Texans have had many problems on defense, but containing opponents' tight ends has been a particular issue for them to date. Nine tight ends have managed at least 8.0 PPR fantasy points in a game against them, their 2.31 points per target afforded to the position ranks third-highest, and consider some of the players who have delivered good scores against them: James O'Shaughnessy (10.8, Week 1), Tommy Tremble (10.7, Week 3), Dawson Knox (20.7, Week 4), Mo Alie-Cox (9.8, Week 6). Heck, Zach Ertz managed 16.0 points against the Texans just last week, in what was his Cardinals debut. Higbee might be only TE13 for the season, but his usage suggests he should be able to exploit this matchup, as he has played 91% of the Rams' offensive snaps and has a tight end-leading 11 red-zone targets.
Unfavorable matchup: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (at Buffalo Bills). It's a rematch of these teams' Week 2 meeting, that one played in Miami, in which Gesicki managed 7.1 PPR fantasy points on six targets while playing 64% of the offensive snaps. He'll probably see similar usage in this game, but the Bills have proven a nightmarish matchup for receivers of all types all season, whether wide receivers, tight ends or running backs. The Bills have minus-5.6 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed for the season, the fewest of any team, and have allowed only 1.68 PPR fantasy points to target to the position, 11th-fewest. If DeVante Parker (ankle) and Will Fuller V (finger) each miss another game in Week 8, it'll make it all the easier for the Bills to contain Gesicki, who has been one of the team's most-involved receivers of late.