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          Fantasy football Week 8 shadow report: Key WR/CB matchups

          • Mike ClayOct 27, 2021, 02:02 PM ET
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              Mike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on "Fantasy Football Now" and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.
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          By using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week. Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can also help you make the best waiver wire pickups.

          Down below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

          To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB cheat sheet.

          Note that, unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjusts to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.

          Advantageous matchups

          Cardinals' DeAndre Hopkins vs. Packers' Eric Stokes (shadow)

          Stokes is a first-round rookie with what very well could be a bright future, but he simply hasn't been much of a deterrent in two shadow situations over the past three weeks. Stokes traveled with Ja'Marr Chase on the perimeter in Week 5 and did the same with Terry McLaurin in Week 7. Chase posted a 6-159-1 receiving line on 10 targets and McLaurin put up 7-122-1 on 11 targets in their respective game, with most of that coming against Stokes.

          Stokes has allowed 79 fantasy points in coverage this season, which is 11th-most in the league. Even if Stokes doesn't shadow, he is Green Bay's primary right corner, where is where Hopkins aligns 79% of the time. The Packers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to that spot this season, as well as the 12th most to the perimeter over the past month. Green Bay has otherwise been pretty good against wideouts, but Hopkins is in a good spot, even against Green Bay's top perimeter corner (at least while Jaire Alexander is out).

          Bills' Stefon Diggs vs. Dolphins' Xavien Howard (shadow)

          Bills' Emmanuel Sanders vs. Dolphins' Byron Jones (shadow)

          Bills' Cole Beasley vs. Dolphins' Nik Needham (slot)

          These teams met back in Week 2 and the above matchups reflects how Miami deployed its corners in that game. Howard shadowed Diggs on 26 of his 30 routes and Jones shadowed Sanders on 23 of his 29 routes. Beasley was shadowed by Justin Coleman (since replaced by Needham as the slot/nickel corner) on 20 of his 25 routes. The Bills' passing game wasn't overly effective, but Diggs came away with a solid 4-60-1 receiving line on eight targets, most of which came against Howard. Diggs also got the best of Howard in a Week 17 matchup last season, posting a 7-76-0 receiving line on eight targets (5-55-0 on five targets against Howard). Sanders and Beasley were held in check back in Week 2, but they've been much better in the weeks since and Miami has struggled badly on defense. The Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (second most over expected), including the second most to the perimeter and sixth most to the slot. Howard and Jones have each missed a game and yet they still rank sixth (93) and 15th (75), respectively, in fantasy points allowed in coverage. Upgrade Buffalo's wide receiver trio.

          Broncos' Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick vs. WFTs' William Jackson, Benjamin St-Juste and Kendall Fuller

          Jeudy is expected back from injury this week, which is bad news for a Washington defense that is already struggling against the pass. Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers (eighth most over expected), as well as the most to the perimeter and second most to the slot. Jackson (104 fantasy points allowed), who missed Week 7, and Fuller (96) were supposed to be one of the league's top CB duos, but instead both rank top-5 among all defenders in fantasy points allowed this season. Washington is surrendering an astounding 46.1 fantasy points per game to wideouts, including at least 39 points in six of seven games. Enter Jeudy, who posted a 6-72-0 receiving line on seven targets prior to his injury in Week 1, and Sutton, who currently leads the NFL in Air Yards (932). Sutton (87% perimeter) and Patrick (76%) primarily work out wide and will see plenty of Jackson and rookie St-Juste. Jeudy (78% slot) will work against Fuller. If Jackson remains out, Fuller will kick outside, with Danny Johnson manning the slot. Either way, Denver's wideouts can be upgraded.

          Seahawks' DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett vs. Jaguars' Shaquill Griffin, Tre Herndon and Tyson Campbell (or Nevin Lawson)

          Seattle is still at least one week away from the return of Russell Wilson, but the good news is that top wideouts Metcalf and Lockett will benefit from a plus matchup this week. Jacksonville is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (third most over expected), as well as the 13th most to the perimeter and seventh most to the slot. The Jaguars are allowing a 74% catch rate (worst) and 9.9 YPT (second worst) to wide receivers. Metcalf (78% perimeter) and Lockett (64%) usually align outside and will face off with work-in-progress rookie Campbell (or, if Campbell remains out with an injury, Lawson) and ex-teammate Griffin. Griffin has played well this season (the Jaguars have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to his side of the field) and shadowed twice, so it's possible he follows Metcalf (perhaps with revenge on his mind). This is nonetheless a terrific matchup across the board, as while Griffin has been solid, Campbell and slot man Herndon have struggled. Upgrade Seattle's wideouts.

          Other notable upgrades:

          Tough matchups

          Buccaneers' Mike Evans vs. Saints' Marshon Lattimore (shadow)

          Evans and Lattimore have a storied history, as their teams have faced off at least twice per season since Lattimore was drafted in 2017. Lattimore shadowed Evans once as a rookie, twice in 2018, once in 2019 (Lattimore missed the other game) and three times in 2020. Evans' stat lines in the games Lattimore shadowed him are as follows (in chronological order starting with 2017): 5-55-0, 7-147-1, 4-86-0, 0-0-0, 1-2-1, 4-64-0 and 1-3-1. Evans mixed in a few touchdowns and had a big game back in 2018, but Lattimore has clearly had a big edge in this matchup. That was especially the case in 2020, as Evans totaled a 6-69-2 receiving line on 13 targets across three games against the Saints. Lattimore is playing at a high level this season and has already successfully shadowed Davante Adams (5-56-0 receiving line), Terry McLaurin (4-46-0) and, aside of the early-game long touchdown, DK Metcalf (2-96-1). As a unit, the Saints have faced the third-most WR targets (140), but have allowed a 59% catch rate (fifth lowest) and only five touchdowns (10th fewest). In turn, they've allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position, but the sixth fewest over expected. Especially after his strong Week 7 showing, Evans is too good to bench, but he's a candidate for down game with Lattimore shadow coverage looming.

          Chargers' Mike Williams vs. Patriots' J.C. Jackson (shadow)

          The Patriots haven't been their usual dominant selves against wide receivers this season (midpack in fantasy points allowed), but they have a reputation for containing the opposing team's top target, and they've achieved that to some extent in 2021. DeVante Parker (12.1 fantasy points), Corey Davis (2.8), Marquez Callaway (14.1), Mike Evans (14.5), Brandin Cooks (5.3), Amari Cooper (10.5) and Davis x2 (14.7) were all held below 15.0 fantasy points in their game against New England this season, though CeeDee Lamb (36.1) and Chris Moore (21.9) did come through with big games. This week, New England figures to prioritize Williams and he's a strong bet for Jackson shadow coverage. Jackson has already traveled with Mike Evans (7-75-0), Parker (4-81-0) and Cooks (3-23-0) this season. He aligns outside 85% of the time, which aligns near perfectly with Williams' 83% rate. Jackson has been heavily targeted this season, but he's been solid, so this may be a tougher matchup than usual for Williams, but nothing to panic about. He's too good to bench, but is perhaps a name to consider not paying up for in DFS. Note that Keenan Allen (59% slot) will see a lot of Myles Bryant since Jonathan Jones was lost for the season and can be upgraded slightly.

          Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker vs. Bills' Tre'Davious White, Taron Johnson and Levi Wallace

          Buffalo is fresh off its bye week after dominating wide receivers during the first six weeks of the season. The Bills have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position (fewest over expected), as well as the fewest to the perimeter. They're allowing 5.7 yards per target and 9.6 yards per reception to wide receivers, both of which are best in the league. They've allowed an NFL-low two touchdowns to the position and no wideout has cleared 16.6 fantasy points against them. Some of that dominance came when these teams met back in Week 2. Parker (5-42-0 receiving line on nine targets) wasn't shadowed, but was nonetheless up against White on 19 of his 42 routes and failed to reach double-digit fantasy points. Waddle (6-48-0 on seven targets) primarily worked against Johnson in the slot and was also quiet. As a unit, Miami wide receivers combined for an ugly 112 yards and zero touchdowns on 27 targets. Parker did average a healthy 18.0 fantasy points per game in his previous four games against Buffalo, but based on what we've seen from Buffalo's defense this season, it's hard not to anticipate a down game. Lower expectations for Parker on the perimeter and Waddle in the slot.

          Vikings' Justin Jefferson vs. Cowboys' Trevon Diggs (shadow)

          The Cowboys just enjoyed their bye week and yet top corner Diggs still has three more interceptions than any other player in the league. Part of the reason why Diggs has found his way to the ball seven times in six games is that he's often tasked with shadowing the other team's top target. Diggs has already shadowed Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Kenny Golladay this season. Diggs has been targeted a fairly-high 22% of the time and results have varied, but he's certainly been an effective playmaker. This week, we should expect Diggs to travel with Jefferson on upward of 100% of his perimeter routes. Considering Jefferson aligns outside 71% of the time, that's going to be often. There's no need for panic here as Jefferson can hold his own, but it's a tougher matchup than usual. With Diggs attached to Jefferson, Adam Thielen is likely to draw the Anthony Brown shadow on the other side of the field. Brown has been solid since a slow start, but Thielen has feasted against man coverage and can be upgraded. Slot man KJ Osborn should be downgraded some, however, as Dallas has allowed the fewest fantasy points to the slot.

          Jets' Corey Davis vs. Bengals' Chidobe Awuzie (shadow)

          From Dallas' current top corner to its former No. 1 we go, as we take a look at Chidobe Awuzie. Awuzie has been a big part of Cincinnati's 5-2 start, as he's been tasked with shadowing Justin Jefferson (5-71-0 receiving line in the game), Allen Robinson (2-24-1), Davante Adams (11-206-1) and Marquise Brown (5-80-1). Those lines don't paint too pretty a picture on the surface, but Jefferson and Robinson we're pretty much held in check and Brown's line isn't as impressive when you consider he was targeted 14 times. Awuzie has been heavily targeted (26%), but has played fairly well and Cincinnati has, in turn, allowed the 15th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (11th fewest over expected) and the 11th fewest to the perimeter. Davis (85% perimeter) has been the Jets' clear top target this season and he's a good bet for Awuzie shadow coverage this week. On top of a downgrade as a result of Zach Wilson's injury, we'll need to downgrade him in this matchup.

          Other notable downgrades:

          Other potential shadow scenarios

          49ers' Deebo Samuel vs. Bears' Jaylon Johnson (shadow)

          Johnson has shadowed Odell Beckham Jr., Davante Adams and Mike Evans this season. He's flashed at times, but the results haven't been good as of late. After surrendering a pair of touchdowns to Evans last week, he has now allowed 75 fantasy points this season, which is 18th most among defenders. Chicago has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts (sixth over expected), though they've been decent against the perimeter (ninth fewest), which is where Samuel aligns 77% of the time. Johnson figures to travel with Samuel this week, but it's not a matchup we need to be worried about, especially considering the Bears have allowed an NFL-high 12 touchdowns to wide receivers. Fire him up with confidence.