Offensive and defensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot we break down matchups in the trenches, and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion are our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To this point we've used the differential between the win rates to determine the best matchup. But from this point forward, we're switching it up: we're simply going to highlight the players facing the weakest -- and strongest -- defensive win rate teams. The reason being: at this stage of the season the blocking that a running back is getting from his offensive line is baked into our perception of them. What changes week-to-week is the defense. Think of it like a receiver who catches passes from the same QB every game, but each week is squaring off against a different corner.
Below we break down the Week 8 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's win rate and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense they're up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Saquon Barkley or Devontae Booker, New York Giants (at Chiefs)
Giants run block win rate rank: 14th
Chiefs run stop win rate rank: 32nd
Whether this is Barkley's first start back from injury or Booker's last before handing the reigns back over, there's a big opportunity for the Giants' running back this week. The standard word of warning for Chiefs' opponents applies: these numbers do not account for game script, so the Giants can't fall behind Kansas City to the point where they abandon the run. But if Joe Judge's team can hang in there, this ought to be the easiest matchup from a skill standpoint either Booker or Barkley will face this year.
The weaknesses for Kansas City are across the defensive line: Frank Clark and Mike Danna are both below average at edge and Jarran Reed ranks 62nd out of 65 qualifiers in run stop win rate as an interior defender.
The bad news for Giants: their best run blocker, left tackle Andrew Thomas, is out. Still, even Nate Solder - average in RBWR - filling in on the left side, will have the advantage over Clark. Plus, center Billy Price is an asset in the run game: he ranks 5th among centers in RBWR.
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys (at Vikings)
Cowboys run block win rate rank: 6th
Vikings run stop win rate rank: 31st
Individual mismatch alert!
The great Tyron Smith is still producing on the ground - he ranks 10th in run block win rate at tackle - and he'll have D.J. Wonnum across from him. That's a cake assignment for Smith in the run game, because Wonnum is the worst rated run stopper at edge among qualifiers, period.
Wonnum isn't the only run game weakness along Minnesota's defensive line (see: Dalvin Tomlinson) nor is Smith the only run game strength along Dallas' offensive line (see: Zack Martin).
Fantasy teams rostering Elliott and Pollard are getting the duo back from the bye in a prime spot.
Elijah Mitchell, 49ers (at Bears)
49ers run block win rate rank: 26th
Bears run stop win rate rank: 30th
Mitchell has averaged 4.7 yards per carry in Kyle Shanahan's offense thus far, but the 49ers as a whole have not performed well in run block win rate. Alex Mack ranks in the bottom three among centers and right guard Daniel Brunskill is sixth-worst in the category among guards.
The road is about to get softer for that line and Mitchell. Chicago ranks 21st in yards per carry allowed but 30th in run stop win rate - with Khalil Mack, Bilal Nichols and Angelo Blackson all coming in below average at their respective positions (though Mack will not play in Week 8).
Disadvantageous Run Matchups
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Seahawks)
Jaguars run block win rate rank: 16th
Seahawks run stop win rate rank: 1st
Seattle's run stopping prowess was just on show in primetime. Though Alvin Kamara had a big day against the Seahawks in the receiving game, he also ran the ball 20 times for just 51 yards (2.55 yards per carry). That's the unit that Robinson and the Jaguars offensive line will run into on Sunday.
Both Al Woods and Bryan Mone rank in the top 15 in run stop win rate at defensive tackle, and Bobby Wagner is top 10 among off ball linebackers in the same category.
The one reason why this might be OK: the Seahawks are much better at stopping runs up the middle, but the Jaguars run outside the tackles 27% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (vs. Dolphins)
Bills run block win rate rank: 12th
Dolphins run stop win rate rank: 3rd
The Bills' run blocking has improved quite a bit in 2021 after being well below average in the area a season ago. Then again, Buffalo's backfield still isn't exactly a place where fantasy championships are made. And it's going to be tough sledding in Week 8 against Miami.
Both Christian Wilkins (defensive tackle) and Andrew Van Ginkel (edge) rank at the top 10 in RSWR at their position.
On the Bills side of things, Mitch Morse - while an asset in pass protection - is a liability in the ground game. Though at least, for Buffalo, the good news is that Wilkins usually is farther away from the center as a three-technique.
Advantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (at Lions)
Eagles pass block win rate rank: 8th
Lions pass rush win rate rank: 32nd
The Lions were a poor pass rushing team before they lost Romeo Okwara to an Achilles injury. Now they're the least threatening front to opposing quarterbacks in the league. Their best pass rusher is Charles Harris who is league average at edge, but Detroit generates nothing up the middle: Michael Brockers and Nick Williams are last and third-to-last in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle. Oof.
The one unideal part of this matchup for Philadelphia is that Harris will go against Jordan Mailata, the Eagles left tackle and one of the weaker parts of this line. The strength lines with center Jason Kelce and right tackle Lane Johnson.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Saints)
Buccaneers pass block win rate rank: 21st
Saints pass rush win rate rank: 31st
Like Brady needs any help these days.
New Orleans' pass rush has been a disappointment, with Cameron Jordan notably ranking 47th out of 61 qualifiers at edge in pass rush win rate (though with a high double-team rate). Payton Turner and Carl Granderson are in that same below average territory, too, and Shy Tuttle ranks second-to-last in the interior, sandwiched between the aforementioned Lions defenders.
To be fair: the outlook for New Orleans is a little better than their past performance. David Onyemata is returning from suspension this week and Marcus Davenport returned from injury last week. They could use the help.
Disadvatangeous Pass Blocking Matchups
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (vs. Eagles)
Lions pass block win rate rank: 23rd
Eagles pass rush win rate rank: 1st
This is not the way for Goff to get back on track. The Eagles' pass rushers are bringing heat: and we can't start anywhere else but Javon Hargrave who has retaken the pass rush win rate crown at defensive tackle from Aaron Donald, edging out the Rams' superstar by a tenth of a percentage point.
But Hargrave isn't alone: Josh Sweat is breaking out to the tune of the seventh-best pass rush win rate at edge with Derek Barnett cracking the top 20. Both will draw easy matchups on Sunday: left tackle Penei Sewell (who should primarily see Sweat) has ranked a disappointing 58th of 71 offensive tackles in his rookie campaign. Right tackle Matt Nelson, who has taken over for Taylor Decker, ranks 60th.
Ben Roethlisberger (at Browns)
Steelers pass block win rate rank: 30th
Browns pass rush win rate rank: 2nd
The Steelers' offensive line is in for a rough day. It was plainly obvious going into the year that Pittsburgh's line was going to be a problem, and it's been exactly that. Roethlisberger hides the issue to some degree with his lightning fast 2.36 average time to pass, quickest in the league. But it's an issue nonetheless.
Both tackles - Dan Moore Jr. and Chukwuma Okorafor - both rank in the bottom 10 in pass block win rate. Zach Banner is back from injury now and that could shake up the lineup. But no matter how it shakes out there's going to be mismatches: Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Takkarist McKinley all rank in the top five in PRWR at edge.
Sack Watch
Nick Bosa, 49ers (at Bears)
The best pass rusher on the Bears' opponent is an auto-include on this list at this point. Despite Chicago recording a middle of the road pass block win rate, Fields has an absurd 12.9% sack rate, an incredibly inviting number for opposing sack artists. Even if we look from Week 4 on, excluding Fields' nine-sack game and his two-sack performance in a non-start the week before), his 9.2% sack rate would be second-highest only to Geno Smith.
Josh Allen, Jaguars (at Seahawks)
I'm not entirely sure what happened, but some sort of switch flipped for Josh Allen after Week 4. In the first four weeks of the season his pass rush get off - a measure of how fast it takes a pass rusher to cross the line of scrimmage by NFL Next Gen Stats - was uncharacteristically high at 1.05 seconds or higher. In Week 5 and 6 that dropped back toward career norms of 0.94 and 0.89 seconds. Similarly: in the first four weeks Allen ranked 49th in pass rush win rate at edge. Since Week 5, he's all the way up to second.
Now he gets a cake matchup against the aforementioned Smith, who is taking sacks at an incredibly high 12% rate so far filling in for Russell Wilson.