Matchups play a huge part in fantasy football managers' start and sit decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a teamwide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at Carolina Panthers). Not too long ago, the Panthers were the NFL's toughest matchup for an opposing quarterback. In the past two weeks, however, they've utterly collapsed, their season-long problems on third downs -- their opponents' 55.3% success rate is the worst by a defense in the league -- coming back to haunt them.
Patrick Mahomes (31.5 fantasy points, Week 9) and Tom Brady (31.8, Week 10) carved up this secondary, and while few quarterbacks can compare to Mahomes or Brady, the duo's sheer dominance against this defense shows what can happen when it doesn't make the crucial plays. Stafford has been excellent on third downs recently -- his 52.0% conversion rate fourth-best among qualifiers during that time -- and he's coming off a season-best 23.0 fantasy point performance despite having suffered a partially torn ligament in his right thumb early in the contest.
He'd be a locked-in QB1 if not for the injury, as well as the questionable status of Kenny Golladay (hip), but he is a borderline member of that tier regardless.
Unfavorable matchup: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (versus Los Angeles Rams). Brady has enjoyed 30-point fantasy days in two of his past four games, and the recent addition of Antonio Brown has bolstered his receiving options. Still, sandwiched between those successes was a miserable, 2.4-point score against the resurgent New Orleans Saints defense in Week 9, succumbing to the tough matchup despite Brown's presence.
It has been a pattern for Brady in 2020: He struggled against the hot-starting Panthers in Week 2 (8.7 points) and the No. 2-against-quarterbacks-for-the-season Chicago Bears in Week 5 (14.6) as well. The Rams, however, represent Brady's stiffest matchup to date, having afforded the position the second-fewest fantasy points per game (14.2) and fewest adjusted fantasy points allowed (minus-4.1) and fantasy points per pass attempt (0.30) for the full season.
They've gotten there by shutting down opposing wide receivers, a roster strength for the Buccaneers, thanks to their mix-and-match assignments among elite-performing cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey, Darious Williams and Troy Hill. Other than possibly tight end Rob Gronkowski's matchups, Brady might not find many open windows to throw into, and we shouldn't forget his past disappointments against elite defenses.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (versus Detroit Lions). His struggles during his past four games filling in for Christian McCaffrey, averaging 9.3 PPR fantasy points in Weeks 6-8 and Week 10 combined, coupled with McCaffrey's 37.1-point Week 9 in his single-game return to the lineup, have rendered Davis a bit of a fantasy afterthought. In Davis' defense, his matchups were brutal: The Bears (Week 6), Saints (Week 7), Atlanta Falcons (Week 8) and Buccaneers (Week 10) rank best, sixth-best, fifth-best and fourth-best, respectively, against running backs during the past five weeks.
Only now does Davis get a matchup respite, as the Lions have surrendered the most adjusted fantasy points allowed (7.5) for the season and second-most in the past five weeks (8.6). It'd be better for his prospects should quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, with whom he has thrived in the receiving game, be under center rather than P.J. Walker, but it's easy to argue that this will be Davis' most favorable matchup in a starting role all season (that assumes, of course, that McCaffrey returns in time for the similarly fantasy-friendly Week 15 matchup against the Green Bay Packers).
Unfavorable matchup: Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints). You shouldn't want any part of the Saints' defense right now. Granted, the Saints haven't faced many elite running backs -- Aaron Jones (16.6 PPR fantasy points on 18 touches in Week 3) and Josh Jacobs (13.5 on 30 in Week 4) are the only two -- but this defense has stifled the run all season, affording this position a fewest-in-the-NFL 0.44 points per rushing attempt rate.
That Jones and Jacobs were limited to those totals in those respective games is damning for Gurley's prospects, considering the veteran running back had lackluster performances facing dream matchups against the aforementioned Lions and Panthers in Weeks 7 and 8, with a trio of touchdowns saving his cause, fantasywise, in those games.
The story of Gurley's season has been his posting worse-than-average stuff (10.1%) and 10-yard run (9.4%) rates but padding his fantasy stats with a healthy number of goal-line chances, and that's probably what he'll need here to earn your start. Use him as an RB2 because of the likelihood of 18-plus touches and a score, but don't expect any miracles.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (versus New York Jets). One could pick on the Arizona Cardinals' or Seattle Seahawks' defenses, in their Week 11 head-to-head meeting, but it's the Jets' defense that provides a surprisingly attractive matchup opportunity for wide receivers these days.
In each of their three games preceding the bye week, the Jets afforded a 20-point PPR fantasy performance to a beneath-the-radar wide receiver: Cole Beasley scored 22.6 points on 12 targets in Week 7, Mecole Hardman 22.6 on nine targets in Week 8 and Jakobi Meyers 28.9 on 14 targets in Week 9. Note the lofty target totals, and while those three share the common thread of most commonly running their routes out of the slot, they tend to shuffle around the formation, much as the Chargers have done with all of their wideouts in 2020.
Jets cornerback Bless Austin has struggled to the tune of 10.2 PPR fantasy points on 30 coverage snaps per game this season, and the team is lacking depth behind him following Pierre Desir's release.
Unfavorable matchup: Will Fuller, Houston Texans (versus New England Patriots). The status of Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore (knee) has a bearing on this matchup, as he has missed three straight games, but let's take a moment to recognize the great season J.C. Jackson has been having. Through nine games, Jackson has allowed just 60.4 PPR fantasy points while totaling six interceptions and 11 passes defensed on 205 coverage snaps, and those who watched this past "Sunday Night Football" game saw his prowess in action, as he helped limit the Baltimore Ravens' Marquise Brown to 3.4 PPR fantasy points on six targets.
It seems logical that Jackson would draw the majority of his assignments covering Fuller, quarterback Deshaun Watson's top deep threat in the Texans' offense, rendering the wide receiver a boom-or-bust fantasy play. If Gilmore is cleared to play, the matchup only gets steeper for Fuller, and also for Brandin Cooks, being that both would see almost exclusively those two in coverage.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (versus Cincinnati Bengals). At first glance, Washington's wide receiver matchups, pertaining to weekly WR1 candidate Terry McLaurin, might look overwhelmingly more favorable than Thomas'.
But digging a little deeper, the Bengals have limited opposing WR1s to only 48.2 of the 198.0 PPR fantasy points that the entire position has scored against them during the past five weeks. That's largely due to the performance of cornerback William Jackson, who has surrendered 31.5 points on 115 coverage snaps during that five-week span, and it therefore seems likely that McLaurin might see a lot of Jackson this week as well.
Quarterback Alex Smith and Washington will need to find other alternatives, and Thomas, who has averaged 11.4 PPR fantasy points and five targets in the past five weeks, should serve as enough of one to warrant the matchup plug-in.
Unfavorable matchup: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (at Denver Broncos). There aren't many clear "nos" among tight end matchups in Week 11, but Gesicki's stands out as one to avoid wherever possible. He has been used sparsely of late, with only 13 targets combined in his past four games, and only one of those came in a red zone situation.
The Broncos, meanwhile, have been rather strong against tight ends, their minus-2.2 adjusted fantasy points allowed sixth-best for the season, in addition to their No. 5 ranking in the chart below. This defense hasn't afforded an individual tight end more than 13.6 PPR fantasy points in a game all season, and it limited Darren Waller (Week 7) and Travis Kelce (Week 10) to a combined 12.8 points on eight targets just in the past four weeks.