Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running-back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at Atlanta Falcons). He hasn't had a stellar season; his off-target rate (21.8%) is his worst since his 2009 rookie season, his 2.4% interception rate is his worst since 2013, and his 60.7% completion rate is his worst since 2014. But at least Stafford has felt comfortable throwing it deep, as his 8.7-yard average depth of target is his second highest behind only 2019's 10.8.
That's a good thing for a quarterback facing the Falcons, though their defense has done plenty to inflate any type of passer's numbers. Consider that in the past four weeks alone, the Falcons allowed 28.8 fantasy points to the Chicago Bears' combination of Mitchell Trubisky and midgame reliever Nick Foles (Week 3), 20.8 points to Teddy Bridgewater (Week 5) and and 23.7 to Kirk Cousins (Week 6), and against a trio of elite quarterbacks -- Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers -- they were slaughtered via the pass (101.2 total points in Weeks 1, 2 and 4).
The Falcons have seen more vertical passing (throws that traveled at least 15 yards downfield) than any other defense thus far, and on those throws alone they've allowed 8.2 fantasy points per game, second most in the league. This is arguably Stafford's best matchup of 2020.
Unfavorable matchup: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (versus Carolina Panthers). His improved play the past three weeks provides encouragement during this, his age-41 season, but his schedule is positively brutal in these next three weeks and is to be avoided everywhere possible in fantasy.
Starting with this game against the Panthers, Brees faces the Nos. 1, 4 (@CHI) and 2 (@TB) defenses versus quarterbacks the next three weeks, and while he just enjoyed his bye week, those matchups don't inspire confidence in his delivering even high-QB2 numbers. Worse yet, Brees has been more conservative throwing the football than ever, as his average depth of target of 5.9 yards is the lowest in the 15 seasons for which we've tracked that data, and his accuracy has crept downward -- his 1.7% interception and 13.4% off-target rates are his worst since 2016 and 2015.
The Panthers' defense, despite its youth and coaching inexperience, has excelled, holding Derek Carr (Week 1), Tom Brady (Week 2) and Matt Ryan (Week 5) to their season lows for fantasy points.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Las Vegas Raiders). He's coming off a career-best performance with 26.1 PPR fantasy points, as well as three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances, but there's still uncertainty in the Buccaneers' backfield, with Leonard Fournette (ankle, missed Week 6), LeSean McCoy and Ke'Shawn Vaughn also in the picture. Fournette's status is key to deciphering this matchup, as the Buccaneers have shown a hinted preference to their early-September pickup, at least when he's healthy enough to play.
Nevertheless, I'd argue that Jones warrants an all-in approach for Week 7, regardless of which running backs are cleared for this Sunday night contest. His 12 carries of 10-plus yards are eighth most in the league, and his 2.1 yards after contact per carry ranks sixth, supporting his candidacy to be the team's leading running back.
The opposing Raiders have struggled mightily against the run, affording opponents' running backs 0.96 fantasy points per rushing attempt, by far the most in the league. If it's Jones' show once more, I'll boost him into the RB1 tier in my rankings.
Unfavorable matchup: James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Los Angeles Chargers). On the other side of the matchups scale, we have the Chargers, whose 0.40 fantasy points per rushing attempt are the fewest in the league. Like the Raiders, the Chargers had their bye in Week 6, a good thing considering that during that time they activated both defensive end Melvin Ingram III (knee) and defensive tackle Justin Jones (shoulder) from injured reserve, both of whom are key contributors to the team's run defense.
Consider this: When the Chargers had Ingram, Jones and defensive end Joey Bosa active in Weeks 1 and 2, this defense held Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to a combined 19.1 PPR fantasy points on 36 total touches. Robinson, meanwhile, has flopped while facing great matchups the past two weeks, totaling 25.3 points on 34 touches against the Houston Texans (Week 5) and Lions (Week 6).
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (versus Seattle Seahawks). His role and fantasy production have seen an uptick during the past three weeks, as he has played 67% of the Cardinals' offensive snaps, seen a 16% (14 of 86) target share and averaged 15.4 PPR fantasy points, second most on the team behind only quarterback Kyler Murray (26.1).
The Cardinals use four-wide-receiver sets nearly as often as any team in the league -- they've done so on 64 of their 397 offensive plays, second most behind only the Bills' 85 -- so Kirk's role should remain sizable enough that he's well worth exploiting any time he's facing a weak secondary. The Seahawks certainly qualify: They've allowed a league-high eight games with at least 20 PPR points to the position, an astonishing number if you consider they've already had their bye week, and their adjusted fantasy points allowed number in the grid below is by far the largest of any team against any position.
Unfavorable matchup: Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears (at Los Angeles Rams). While it's practically impossible to bench a wide receiver with a 28% target share (fourth largest in the league), not to mention one who has five end zone targets in his six games played, Robinson isn't aligned for one of his better matchups in Week 7.
The Rams are one of three teams not to have allowed a game with 20-PPR fantasy points to an opposing wide receiver (Bears and Kansas City Chiefs), and their 1.6 PPR fantasy points allowed per target to the position is fourth fewest in the league. That's largely due to the strong play of cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams, and while the former isn't likely to cover Robinson for the entirety of Monday night's contest, it is likely that the majority of Robinson's routes will have one of the two following, based on their typical alignments.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (at Atlanta Falcons). Vertical passes aren't the only area in which Stafford and the Lions' passing game might shine against these Falcons. This defense has also struggled mightily to contain tight ends in scoring position, affording them the most targets (13), receptions (9) and touchdowns (6) in the red zone. That's where Greg Olsen (12.4 PPR fantasy points, Week 1), Dalton Schultz (21.8, Week 2), Jimmy Graham (24.0, Week 3) and Robert Tonyan (33.8, Week 4) thrived in past meetings, fueling much of their fantasy production in those games.
Red zone situations are where Hockenson has tallied plenty of fantasy production of his own, as he has seven red zone and five end zone targets -- both of those tied for fifth at his position, and he has played one fewer game than the players ranked ahead of him -- and has scored 21.6 of his 56.7 PPR fantasy points on his red zone targets.
Unfavorable matchup: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (at New England Patriots). As with Robinson, you simply can't bench a player who has a combined 27.1% target share in the four games in which he was healthy enough to play -- only Darren Waller can claim a greater percentage (27.3%) among tight ends.
Still, the concern here is the Patriots' defensive game plan, which often aims to take the opponent's top receiving target out of the equation. See Week 3, when Waller managed only 2.9 PPR fantasy points on four targets while running 31 routes and playing 95% of the Raiders' offensive snaps. Travis Kelce, while not the Chiefs' only receiving weapon, nevertheless scored 10.0 points on seven targets against this same defense in Week 4.
Kittle should be able to put forth at least a Kelce-esque point total, but the Patriots' game plan gives the tight end a very wide range of probable outcomes. Be forewarned: This is a big-time boom/bust matchup.