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Fantasy football Week 11 shadow report: Key WR/CB matchups

DeAndre Hopkins has an excellent chance to follow up his Hail Mary touchdown with another big week. Patrick Breen-USA TODAY NETWORK

By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defense schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play of an NFL game. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week. Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best waiver-wire pickups.

Below are the receivers with the best and worst Week 11 matchups, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out my weekly WR vs. CB Cheatsheet.

Note that, unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.

Advantageous matchups

Cardinals' DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk vs. Seahawks' Quinton Dunbar and Shaquill Griffin
Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald vs. Seahawks' Ugo Amadi

When these teams met in Week 7, Arizona's wide receivers had a field day. Hopkins (9-84-1 receiving line), Kirk (5-37-2) and Fitzgerald (8-62-0) each cleared 14 fantasy points, with Hopkins and Kirk primarily feasting against Dunbar and Griffin. Both corners missed Week 10 because of injury, but even if they don't return Thursday, backups Tre Flowers and D.J. Reed combined to allow 12 catches on 13 targets for 113 yards against the Rams on Sunday. Despite both missing action because of injury, Dunbar and Griffin rank top-10 in fantasy points allowed in coverage among corners this season. The Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the most to the perimeter and second-most to the slot. They sit no lower than fourth in the three categories over the past month, so there's no real sign of improvement. Regardless of who is healthy and aligns on the perimeter, Hopkins (92% perimeter) and Kirk (87%) will be set up for a big game. Fitzgerald (88% slot) will see Amadi inside and is a deep league PPR play.

Panthers' DJ Moore vs. Lions' Desmond Trufant (shadow)
Panthers' Robby Anderson vs. Lions' Amani Oruwariye/Jeff Okudah

After missing most of the season because of injury, Trufant returned two weeks ago and has since shadowed Adam Thielen and Terry McLaurin. Granted, Minnesota barely threw the ball in Week 9, but Thielen was held to 38 yards on five targets in that game. McLaurin had better luck, with a 7-95-0 receiving line on 59 routes this past Sunday. All but 8 yards of that production came against Trufant. With Moore (77% perimeter) and Anderson (67%) both seeing a substantial number of targets while primarily aligning outside, it's possible that Trufant doesn't shadow this week, but if he does, Moore would likely be his assignment. Of course, it might not matter much. Trufant has struggled thus far, as has rookie Okudah, who was demoted to a part-time role behind Oruwariye last week. Detroit has, in turn, allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers on the season. Moore and Anderson should both be upgraded.

Chargers' Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton vs. Jets' Bless Austin, Bryce Hall and Arthur Maulet

The Jets enter Week 11 fresh off their bye week, but things aren't looking any better at cornerback. The team ended the Pierre Desir experiment on Tuesday by cutting the veteran corner. One of the Jets' few bright spots this season, slot corner Brian Poole, was placed on injured reserve. Austin, who has struggled as a full-timer in his second NFL season, will now be joined by some combination of rookies Bryce Hall (fifth round) and Lamar Jackson (undrafted) on the perimeter, with Arthur Maulet and perhaps newcomer Corey Ballentine handling the slot. New York's cornerback woes have showed up in the numbers, with the Jets allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the 10th-most to the perimeter (fifth-most over the past month). Williams (72% perimeter) and rarely-targeted Guyton (61%) play on the outside for the Chargers, with Keenan Allen (52%) the team's primary slot man. All three can be upgraded significantly.

Vikings' Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson vs. Cowboys' Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown

When we last saw the Cowboys in Week 9, Brown and struggling rookie corner Trevon Diggs were the team's top perimeter corners. Diggs went down with a foot injury, which landed him on IR, but Awuzie has since been activated and is expected to slide into his starting slot. Awuzie should offer an upgrade, though he failed to impress when healthy earlier this season, allowing a 6-92-2 receiving line on 55 coverage snaps. Dallas has cracked down on wide receivers a bit over the past month but still sits top-five in fantasy points allowed to the position both overall and to the perimeter this season. With Brown struggling and Awuzie in his first game back, both Thielen (77% perimeter) and Jefferson (59%) are well positioned for big Week 11 performances.

Other notable upgrades:

Browns' Jarvis Landry vs. Eagles' Nickell Robey-Coleman

Cowboys' Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb vs. Vikings' Cameron Dantzler, Kris Boyd and Jeff Gladney

Saints' Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell and Darqueze Dennard

Chiefs' Tyreek Hill vs. Raiders' Lamarcus Joyner

Steelers' Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Jaguars' CJ Henderson, Sidney Jones and Tre Herndon

Tough matchups

Seahawks' DK Metcalf vs. Cardinals' Patrick Peterson (shadow)
Related upgrade: Tyler Lockett vs. Dre Kirkpatrick

These teams met in Week 7, and that showdown could best be described as the "Tyler Lockett game." Arizona's game plan centered on shadowing Metcalf with Peterson. Metcalf caught only one of three targets for 6 yards on 34 routes against Peterson and posted a 2-23-0 receiving line on four targets in the game. Lockett took advantage with a ridiculous 15-200-3 receiving line on 20 targets. Most of that damage came against Kirkpatrick, though he beat Peterson for a long touchdown. Metcalf also struggled against Arizona in two 2019 games (Peterson shadowed him in one of them), totaling a 1-6-0 receiving line on five targets (58 routes). Considering how well Arizona has been able to slow Metcalf, it's likely that Peterson will shadow him again this week. Lockett would, in turn, see a ton of Kirkpatrick again. Arizona is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the most over the past month. Lockett should be upgraded, and though Metcalf should be downgraded, he should, of course, remain in lineups.

Rams' Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds vs. Buccaneers' Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean

Davis has been a featured name in this column throughout the season, but perhaps he isn't even the team's best corner? He isn't if you take a glance at the coverage grades at PFF, which show Dean ranked fifth among 87 corners who have played at least 300 snaps. Davis still ranks pretty well (25th), and his grade is likely depressed a bit by that fact that he has been asked to shadow Michael Thomas (twice), Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Davante Adams and DJ Moore. That's a very tough ask, yet Davis is allowing a healthy 0.25 fantasy points per coverage snap. The point, of course, is that the Buccaneers have a very effective one-two punch at perimeter corner, and this week, that doesn't bode well for Woods (60% perimeter) and Reynolds (70%). Woods' targets have trended down in recent weeks (19 in his past three games), whereas Reynolds has emerged as one of Jared Goff's go-to targets (28 targets during the span trails only Cooper Kupp's 34 for the team lead). Both receivers will have their hands full this week and should be downgraded. Kupp, by the way, has a decent matchup against Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot but shouldn't be upgraded more than slightly against a good Bucs' defense.

Buccaneers' Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin vs. Rams' Jalen Ramsey, Darious Williams and Troy Hill

The Rams have been dominating wide receivers all season, and the general public got a good look at that on Sunday, when they held DK Metcalf to 28 yards on four targets and Tyler Lockett to 66 yards on nine targets. Seattle entered that game having scored four offensive touchdowns in every game, but it managed only one against Los Angeles. This week, the Rams will turn their attention to the league's best wide receiver trio. Los Angeles has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers both this season and over the past eight weeks (that includes both overall and specifically perimeter receivers). The Rams have also allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the slot over the past month. Ramsey traveled with and shut down Metcalf last week, though that was the first game this season in which he has shadowed. It's possible that he chases someone this week, but it's unlikely, considering that Tampa Bay doesn't have a clear No. 1 option. All three of the Buccaneers' receivers should be downgraded, especially Brown, who aligns outside 89% of the time. Note that Brown and Ramsey have a past from their time in Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, respectively. Brown has a 14-218-0 receiving line on 25 targets across 73 routes against Ramsey in his career.

Football Team's Terry McLaurin vs. Bengals' William Jackson (shadow)

Jackson has shadowed occasionally this season, including showdowns with DeSean Jackson and T.Y. Hilton. He didn't against the Steelers last week, but that was the expectation, considering how evenly they target their top receivers. This week sets up as a logical shadow scenario, considering that McLaurin is far and away Washington's top target (at wide receiver, anyway. Don't get me started on J.D. McKissic) and Jackson is far and away Cincinnati's top corner. Jackson has been strong in coverage this season. He has been targeted on only 15% of his coverage snaps, and Cincinnati is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to left perimeter receivers this season, which is where Jackson aligns 83% of the time. McLaurin aligns at that spot 47% of the time, so even if Jackson doesn't shadow, these two will face off on at least half of Washington's pass plays this week. Cincinnati is an absolute mess opposite Jackson, allowing the most fantasy points to left perimeter receivers for the season, over the past two months and over the past month. It's so bad that, despite Jackson's doing well, the Bengals are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the sixth most to the perimeter. That's where Cam Sims aligns, so though he's very risky, the 6-foot-5 24-year-old is an interesting Week 11 deep sleeper.

Falcons' Julio Jones vs. Saints' Marshon Lattimore (shadow)

The first of two meetings between these teams over the next three weeks is likely to be headlined by a showdown between Jones and Lattimore. These two have a bit of a convoluted past that began with Lattimore shadowing Jones during the first three games between their teams after he was drafted in 2017. He then surprisingly shadowed Calvin Ridley in the second 2018 meeting (Eli Apple shadowed Jones). Last season, Lattimore was shadowing Jones in Week 10 before he left injured after only 12 pass plays, and then Jones missed the Week 13 meeting. Regardless of the coverage, Jones has had no trouble with Lattimore and the Saints. His five receiving lines since Lattimore was drafted are as follows (starting with 2017): 5-98-0, 7-149-0, 5-96-0, 11-147-0 and 3-79-0. On 62 career routes against Lattimore, Jones has a 10-221-0 receiving line on 18 targets. Lattimore hasn't been quite as good this season as in years past (in fact, running mate Janoris Jenkins has been better), but I'm still filing this under downgrades because Lattimore has a lengthy résumé of high-end play and generally shows up in a big way against the toughest competition. Jones' history against the Saints suggests that we don't need to move the needle much here, but we should expect shadow coverage.

Other notable downgrades:

Texans' Will Fuller V and Brandin Cooks vs. Patriots' J.C. Jackson and Stephon Gilmore (if he returns from injury)

Titans' A.J. Brown and Corey Davis vs. Ravens' Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters

Titans' Adam Humphries vs. Ravens' Marlon Humphrey

Raiders' Henry Ruggs III, Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow vs. Chiefs' Bashaud Breeland, Charvarius Ward and Rashad Fenton/Tyrann Mathieu

Jets' Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims vs. Chargers' Casey Hayward and Michael Davis

Additional potential shadow matchups

-- If the Lions' Kenny Golladay returns this week, expect him to draw shadow coverage from the Panthers' Rasul Douglas. Carolina has been crushed by wide receivers as of late (most fantasy points allowed to the perimeter over the past month), so both Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. (who would see a lot of struggling Donte Jackson and/or Troy Pride Jr.) can be upgraded in that scenario. If Golladay remains out, Jones figures to see Douglas, and Marvin Hall would face off with Jackson/Pride Jr.

-- When both Jaire Alexander and Kevin King have been healthy and the Packers were facing a team with a pair of good perimeter receivers, the team has tended to put 5-foot-11 Alexander on the smaller of the two wideouts and 6-foot-3 King on the bigger one. Both corners were out last week, but if they return this week against the Colts, don't be surprised if Alexander shadows 5-foot-9 T.Y. Hilton and King travels with 6-foot-4 Michael Pittman Jr. In that scenario, you should downgrade Hilton significantly and upgrade Pittman. If Alexander returns but King does not, Alexander might play a side or shadow Pittman, so the matchup wouldn't be quite as appealing for the rookie.