One National League club has a better winning percentage than the Chicago Cubs, but only two NL teams have fewer saves. What gives? Well, the Cubs have not struggled so much in the bullpen, as their 3.93 ERA ranks 10th among 30 teams, but fantasy managers have wondered who will get the saves, because that's really all that matters to them.
Right-hander Steve Cishek is among the most added relief pitchers in ESPN standard fantasy leagues, coming off a surprising seven-out performance on Sunday Night Baseball, his fourth save of the season. But he is not who I would be adding.
After throwing those 27 pitches to hold off the terrible Washington Nationals -- you want to talk about a rough bullpen? -- Cishek was deemed unavailable to close out Monday's potential win over the Philadelphia Phillies, so right-hander Brad Brach, who has experience in the role, was summoned. He did not get the save. No Cubs did in the extra-inning loss.
However, Cishek is in the news for the unusual length of Sunday's save, which piqued the interest of fantasy managers while injured right-handers Pedro Strop and Brandon Morrow are on the mend.
Let us cut to the proverbial chase, if you will: I think Strop will get most of Chicago's saves this season, and since he's available in more than 80 percent of ESPN leagues, that seems relevant.
His hamstring injury has healed to the point where he threw a side bullpen session on Monday, and one could see a short rehab assignment in his near future. Meanwhile, Morrow, who saved 22 games in 30 2/3 innings last season with a 1.47 ERA and boasts a 1.79 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with nearly a strikeout per inning over the past three seasons for three different NL teams, is playing catch. His elbow is an ongoing problem. Morrow has thrown 90 1/3 innings since 2016, and none in 2019.
Add and stash Morrow if you desire, but I still find it unlikely he pitches for the Cubs in the near future. Perhaps the All-Star break makes sense, if his elbow permits. Nobody really knows, including Morrow and Cubs manager Joe Maddon, who seems to like Strop more than most, allowing him to save 13 games in 2018, and he likely would have had October chances had the Cubs won the wild-card game.
Strop pitched the ninth in a tie game. Strop, 34, is no superstar, but he is consistent, as his ERA as a Cub over seven seasons is a cool 2.71. He also has 26 career saves. Cishek has 129 career saves.
My prediction is that Cishek will get save chances the rest of May, then Strop will return and handle the role, and we'll see myriad positive reports about Morrow in the next few months, getting everyone's hopes up for perhaps no reason.
I do not see the Cubs adding significant resources to the bullpen from outside the organization. Strop saves 22 games this season, with an ERA around 3.25. Cishek is capable of handling the role, but I say no other Cub reaches double digits. That's merely how I see it as of today.
Other thoughts
• It seems clear to everyone except Phillies manager Gabe Kapler that right-hander Seranthony Dominguez is not capable of being a multi-inning option. Dominguez proved it yet again on Monday, though his offense bailed him out in the ninth inning against Brach. The Phillies seem likely to go with Hector Neris for most saves, and Pat Neshek is next, though there remains concern about him throwing on consecutive days. I no longer think David Robertson, if he ever gets healthy again -- no sure thing -- is in line for saves.
• It would not be such a shocker if Atlanta Braves right-hander Luke Jackson starts sharing saves with lefty Sean Newcomb, a failed starter -- although he is young and talented enough to still start -- who saved Monday's win. Newcomb tied for fourth among all pitchers in walks last season, with 81, but since returning from a minor league stint and throwing 8 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, he has issued nary a free pass and seems to have found a new role. This could be like the Minnesota Twins timeshare, with Blake Parker and Taylor Rogers sharing saves. Just what fantasy managers want!
• The Braves acquired Anthony Swarzak from the Seattle Mariners for lefty Jesse Biddle (tons of walks) and injured right-hander Arodys Vizcaino. My initial thoughts were, Why bother? Swarzak adds a healthy arm (for now), but he has had one season of success. He has allowed six home runs in 13 2/3 innings this season. Good luck, Braves. Seattle gets Vizcaino, done for the season after shoulder surgery, but I would not be excited about potential saves in 2020. Vizcaino has still never saved more than 16 games in a season, teasing us for years. Seattle's 2020 closer could be anyone.
• Sticking with the disappointing NL East, New York Mets right-hander Edwin Diaz is going to have a tough time ending up a top-5 fantasy reliever based on the mess around him and his usage. Diaz is pitching fine, but not nearly enough. He will not win games the way the club utilizes him, and the Mets are not providing a bounty of saves, though that could change. I'm just saying, if I rostered Diaz, I would consider trading him for a lesser closer who might save just as many games -- like Ken Giles, Raisel Iglesias, Greg Holland or a dozen others -- plus a bat or a starter. Diaz is unlikely to end up with close to 100 strikeouts or 40-plus saves.
• I saw in a head-to-head league, entering last week, that my opponent had no relief pitchers. As a result, I left only one of mine active, presuming Arizona's Greg Holland could save one lousy game for an entire week. He did not, though he did nothing wrong. The result, in my matchup, was neither fantasy team earned a save, and I lost all the other pitching categories anyway. I should not blame Holland, really, but it is a reminder how there is no predictive nature to saves. The Padres lead baseball with 20, and Detroit and Pittsburgh are tied for third. The Marlins have more saves than the Athletics, despite 11 fewer wins. Watch Holland save three games this week.
• Brandon Workman has apparently worked his way into the saves picture in Boston, which is bad news for awesome Matt Barnes, one of the top relievers in the sport. Barnes is third in relief pitcher strikeouts, behind Josh Hader and Kirby Yates. Perhaps manager Alex Cora wants to keep him in the eighth-inning role. Workman is having a nice season, so it's not crazy that he saved a game, but it seems like when Tampa Bay's Emilio Pagan picked up a few saves, that ended.
• I added Kansas City Royals rookie Scott Barlow to a Scoresheet team, since saves do not matter there, and this fellow has 34 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings. One can find capable setup relievers who accrue whiffs and are stingy on the runs allows. Barlow is one of them. The Giants' Reyes Moronta is another, as are the Cardinals' Giovanny Gallegos and the Yankees' Adam Ottavino. Finding the saves, when there has been little turnover so far, is tougher.
• I think Los Angeles Angels right-hander Hansel Robles, Miami Marlins right-hander Sergio Romo and Seattle Mariners lefty Roenis Elias will continue to save games, and fantasy managers underrate them a bit because of their teams. Certainly we are past the time of reasonably rostering the likes of Cody Allen and Adam Conley, among others.
Monday takeaways
• Chicago White Sox rookie outfielder Eloy Jimenez returned from his injured list stint with a hitless outing in Houston. Jimenez, rostered in 67 percent of ESPN standard leagues, is going to hit, just as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has, so try to be patient. I am also watching fellow White Sox outfielder Charlie Tilson, for he is playing regularly and hitting but needs to steal more bases. I mean, that is, after all, why we roster him!
• My updated roto rankings have Texas Rangers outfielder/first baseman Joey Gallo moving into the top 50 overall, for while the power remains elite, his contact skills have improved so much it seems like he really could bat .275 this season. Currently he is at .285 and handling center field without incident. No, he is not Garry Maddox, but Texas has no other capable center fielders. Gallo going .275 with 40 home runs would make him a top-20 fantasy hitter, folks.
• While I am no fan of watching Chicago Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish struggle with control, he has looked good in recent outings, including on Monday against the Phillies. All the runs off him came in the sixth inning. He is going to pile on strikeouts, perhaps as many as 12 per nine innings, but my main concerns for fantasy purposes are the wins and WHIP. He throws so many pitches -- and so many outside the strike zone -- he rarely reaches six innings. Monday was the second time in 10 starts he finished six innings. His WHIP is 1.56 but should be in the 1.30 range the rest of the way. Is that good enough? I avoid still.
• Everyone is pounding Baltimore Orioles pitching, and records could be set, but New York Yankees infielder Gleyber Torres has enjoyed this group more than most. Torres slugged two more home runs against them on Monday, giving him eight of his 10 blasts on the season, and a .486/.538/1.257 line against the likes of Andrew Cashner and his pals. The problem is, the Yankees, after Thursday, do not get the gift of more Orioles incompetence until August. I think Torres is exceptional enough to be a top-50 fantasy hitter regardless, even when Didi Gregorius returns and moves him back to second base. But this is something to watch. Perhaps Torres investors sell high.
• Boston Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. hit his first home run of the difficult season, raising his OPS to a still-anemic .443. His defense, however, remains spectacular. The Red Sox could soon have a glut of hitters if several second basemen get healthy and force a Michael Chavis move, but it seems unlikely. Rafael Devers has emerged as a star, and he is not sitting, either. This elite offense can withstand one player with a sub-.500 OPS if he provides fantastic defense, and by the way, Bradley is no great hitter, but it should improve. It did with beleaguered Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, to a degree. The point is, Chavis, who homered again Monday, is not going away, and he could become a top-10 second baseman soon. He's close as it is.
Health report
• Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani and shortstop Andrelton Simmons were injured in Monday's game. Ohtani, rostered in 82 percent of ESPN standard mixed leagues, took a pitched ball in his right index finger, but there is structural damage. Perhaps he misses a day or two. A minute later, Simmons rolled his ankle and needed aid to exit the field. While the ankle is not broken, expect an injured list stint, for sure. Simmons, rostered in 75 percent of leagues, is an expert glove man but is an underrated fantasy option. Those needing a fill-in shortstop should look at youngsters Brendan Rodgers and Nicky Lopez, and Marwin Gonzalez has been playing well lately.
• Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve could start a rehab assignment from his hamstring injury this week, with a return to the majors soon to follow. Meanwhile, his replacement, Aledmys Diaz, has missed three games with his own hamstring injury. The Astros are so deep it does not matter. By the way, I want to get excited that Tyler White mercifully hit his first home run of the season Monday, but alas, I cannot.
• I suppose I could write more about New York Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and his latest off-field mishap, in which he suffered multiple ankle fractures doing God knows what, but does it matter in fantasy? Cespedes is rostered in 3.4 percent of standard leagues, and I don't know anyone who actually expected him to play in a big league game in 2019. Good luck in dynasty formats, too. In other news, the comical Mets won a game.
W2W4
• Colorado Rockies right-hander German Marquez, who is really good and shows it with his control and strikeouts, goes to Pittsburgh to face the most overrated fantasy pitcher there is: right-hander Chris Archer. Look, I like Archer. He is fun. He is also the No. 157 starting pitcher on the Player Rater, behind Baltimore's David Hess and someone on St. Louis named Ryan Helsley, and it is because of his 5.58 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and his lone victory in six starts. Oh, he misses bats, lots of 'em. That lures us in, but the rest of it is not top-50-starter worthy. Archer should improve on his current statistical underachievement, but I would not trade much for him. Catch it on ESPN+!
• You are probably not aware, because their teams are sub-par, but two of the top 10 hurlers in ERA face off in Detroit with rookie Spencer Turnbull hosting Miami Marlins lefty Caleb Smith. The former boasts a 2.40 ERA, 10th in the game, the latter a 2.25 mark, good for seventh. Both are legit, though, thanks to the lame offenses "supporting them"; they have combined for five wins in 17 starts. Still, good innings are good innings, and we love strikeouts. Perhaps Miguel Cabrera can raise that awesome .360 slugging percentage at some point. Perhaps not.
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