Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich top the ESPN Fantasy Player Rater through six weeks, but you probably knew that already. Did you know the rest of the top five is Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi, Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson and a new entrant, fresh off a monstrous display of hitting this weekend, Houston Astros outfielder George Springer? I doubt Mondesi, Anderson and Springer finish as top-five options, but of the three, believe it or not, Springer is the one I doubt the most, because even while the power is real, he is simply not a major -- or even minor -- stolen base threat.
Springer homered twice among five hits Sunday, becoming the third leadoff hitter to have at least two home runs, five hits and five runs scored in a game. The others were St. Louis Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter, just last season, and way back in 1983, the awesome then-Minnesota Twins and later New York Mets infielder Tim Teufel. Springer scores runs. He hits for power. Nobody denies this. However, his .321 batting average sits more than 50 points above his career mark, and the last time Springer stole even double-digit bases was way back in 2015. Credit him for a great start, but, combined with those facts and his playing no more than 140 games the past two seasons, there is risk here for a fall.
This is why I feel Springer is someone who has been valued improperly in the fantasy world for a few seasons. Most looked his way in the fourth or fifth round. I was skeptical, because the actual fantasy value didn't add up. Sure, not every top-50 hitter needs to hit for average and steal myriad bases, but we know what Springer is at this point, and it will be tough for him to finish as a top-10 outfielder unless he really changes his ways. Springer has stolen four bases in five attempts so far, so perhaps he is changing. In the previous three seasons he was 20-for-41 on steals, which makes him arguably the worst base stealer in the sport, despite decent speed. We cannot assume his early success will continue. Plus, Springer was hitting .268 just 10 games ago. Be careful here.
As for the batting average, yeah, it is probably inflated by early BABIP figures and likely to fall some, but the walk and strikeout rates are within normal range for him. The contact rate is actually down, but he is hitting baseballs harder than ever at a 50 percent rate and many are line drives. Springer used to hit too many ground balls. Now he is elevating the ball better, though his fly ball rate still doesn't match the pace for nearly 60 home runs. I'd say Springer is likely to settle in the 35-40 homer range if he continues to hit this well, but even there, it seems unlikely. Add it up and Mondesi and Anderson, even if they hit something like .220 the rest of the way but with more than 40 steals, could be more valuable. Steals are tough to find. Ask those who overspent on Chicago White Sox outfielder Charlie Tilson this weekend.
Sunday recap
Box scores
Highlights
George Springer, OF, Houston Astros: 5-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston Astros: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates: 4-for-4, HR, 5 RBI
Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Lowlights
Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres: 0-for-4, 3 K
Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals: 0-for-3, 3 K
Nick Margevicius, SP, San Diego Padres: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 11 K
Griffin Canning, SP, Los Angeles Angels: 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Weekend takeaways
Pitchers to have three outings in a row of 8+ IP, no more than 1 run and 4 baserunners allowed, since the dead ball era:
- Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD), 2019
- Clayton Kershaw (LAD), 2016
- Clayton Kershaw (LAD), 2015
- Cliff Lee (CLE), 2008
- Sandy Koufax (LAD), 1963- Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) May 12, 2019
• So, um, yeah, Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu is really, really good now. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Washington Nationals and hasn't permitted a run in 24 innings. He leads baseball in ERA since the start of 2018. No, I still do not expect 30 starts this season -- thanks in part to the Dodgers being cautious, as they should be -- but Ryu, with 54 strikeouts versus three walks and a 1.72 ERA for what might be baseball's top team, leads the early NL Cy Young discussion. Fantasy managers should lower expectations on overall innings pitched anyway. I am not there yet, mainly due to a lack of durability, but we might be forced to rank Ryu as a top-20 starter soon.
• Cincinnati Reds outfielder Yasiel Puig homered twice over the weekend and stole three bases, giving him seven of each through 39 games. Extrapolate his numbers out and we have a 20-20 player for the first time. We have spoken of Puig often on the Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast (each Monday and Thursday), and it is true, I am not a big fan. He is hitting .217 and showing little plate discipline, but even if he is the outfielder version of what Ian Desmond used to be, that has value.
• Speaking of the podcast, I haven't been so positive about Baltimore Orioles lefty John Means, either -- trust me, we are positive about many other players, though -- because he is a 26-year-old non-prospect who doesn't throw particularly hard and, well, he is an Oriole. He probably won't win much. However, he is right now. Means has won four of five outings and permitted more than a run in one of them. His 2.33 ERA hardly matches up to a 4.17 FIP, but even I added him in a league until he stops pitching well. Who's to say Means isn't, simply, different?
Health report
• Aledmys Diaz has been seeing regular plate appearances at second base with Jose Altuve on the injured list for a bad hamstring. Rumor is Altuve will not come off the list as soon as eligible, so Diaz, with three hits and six RBIs over the most recent two games, becomes a decent fill-in for the week and perhaps beyond.
• Fantasy managers must feel like they don't deserve nice things. Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow, second among all starting pitchers on the Player Rater behind Justin Verlander, hit the injured list with a forearm strain and will not pitch for at least a month, and perhaps much more. Glasnow boasts a 1.86 ERA. I think a top-20 fantasy starter is worthy of remaining on fantasy rosters until there is more clarity. By the way, the only other starters in the top 50 of the Rater are Matt Shoemaker, out for the season, and Yankees lefty James Paxton.
Closing time
• Steve Cishek closed out Sunday's win over the Milwaukee Brewers without incident, and his numbers look as impeccable as in recent seasons, but those expecting myriad saves could be disappointed. Manager Joe Maddon is expected to go back to Pedro Strop when his hamstring injury heals. By the way, the Cubs, despite 24 wins, boast only seven saves. Only four teams have fewer. Perhaps this is not the place to mine for saves.
• Luke Jackson appears to be the Atlanta closer with wild lefty A.J. Minter demoted to the minors prior to the weekend. While many expect Jackson, with a 4.73 career ERA, to lose the role, he has permitted one run in his past 17 appearances and seems somewhat secure.
W2W4
• Oakland Athletics right-hander Mike Fiers takes the mound for the first time since firing his second no-hitter. His ERA remains an uninspiring 5.48, but fantasy managers have made him the 19th-most-added starting pitcher over the past seven days, with two decent matchups this week, starting Monday at Seattle. Fiers had a 3.56 ERA and 1.18 WHIP last season. He is better than his current numbers, but not a big strikeout option, either. Chicago White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, slated to face the uninspiring Cleveland Indians lineup Monday, is among the whiff leaders. If he finds consistency, he is the better long-term option.
• Many eyes are on the Minnesota Twins this week, for third baseman Miguel Sano is on the mend from a heel laceration and hitting at Triple-A Rochester. A return to the majors seems imminent. Marwin Gonzalez has hit in nine of 10 games and raised his batting average to .231, but Sano, a career .477 slugger, will handle the position when healthy. It could be Monday. Or Friday. Who knows? See if Sano is worth a spot on your team. The upside seems worth it to me.
Most recent KaraBlogs
Thursday, May 9: Pence, Chavis, other free-agent adds
Wednesday, May 8: Mike Fiers, Justin Turner, Hyun-Jin Ryu
Tuesday, May 7: Closer report: Jansen's home runs, Brewers, Angels, etc.
Monday, May 6: Weekend wrap, Ohtani return, Padres outfield, Taillon injury
Thursday, May 2: Soroka, Senzel among sensible free-agent adds