Few among us expected to be analyzing Texas Rangers outfielder Hunter Pence a week into May. It seemed far from assured he would even make the Rangers at all. Pence used to be one of my favorites, on and off the field. A great guy and fun to interview, he rocked statistically for a while as well, even as recently as 2014 when he hit .277 with 20 home runs, 74 RBIs, 13 steals and 106 runs for the World Series champion San Francisco Giants. Pence got MVP votes that season -- the real ones -- and he was a top-20 fantasy outfielder as well. And then, it seemed to quickly end, which is fine because like many of us, he had a good ride. Appreciate the achievements.
His final four years in San Francisco went poorly,
Alas, Pence is available in more than 90 percent of ESPN standard leagues for a reason, and that reason is he is unlikely to keep hitting this way for long, but I'd like to think a player who often overachieved can do so again. So I decided to lead the Thursday free-agent blog entry with someone returning to success after what could not have been a fun run of injuries and offensive struggles. Pence used to swing at anything; now he has eight walks versus 12 strikeouts. He's making contact and no longer lunging at outside pitches that bounce up there. He's attempted two stolen bases. He's hitting lefties and right-handers, home and road. Good for him. Regular playing time appears imminent, and we shall see what he does with it.
As for DeShields, well, there goes another stolen base option who could not reach base enough for it to matter. Look, the Rangers know what DeShields is at this point and it is not special. Steals are not that important in today's "real" game. Danny Santana, who I would not invest in, outplayed him, and easily. DeShields was not demoted so he can start hitting again. He is a career .241 hitter with a slugging percentage barely above his on-base percentage. Ramon Laureano and Kevin Pillar can get away with that. DeShields cannot.
I recommended that Mallex Smith investors in roto leagues -- where the steals matter -- keep him stashed away for his inevitable recall to Seattle. Do not do the same with DeShields. By the way, Calhoun, 24, is hitting nicely at Triple-A Nashville, with a .931 OPS, power and more walks than whiffs. He plays left field. I like Pence, but it's a matter of weeks before Calhoun gets another call, and perhaps this time he does something with it. Do not forget him in dynasty formats.
One more Rangers note: Joey Gallo now gets to play center field on a regular basis, which seems simply ridiculous, but the organization didn't exactly plan ahead. Perhaps Gallo can fake it defensively. It's not like we roster many Rangers pitchers, though lefty Mike Minor is up to 80 percent rostered in ESPN leagues. Didn't see that coming! Gallo is awesome offensively, showing the best plate discipline of his career, and he is on his way to perhaps 40 home runs and a .250 batting average. That is a top-50 fantasy option for sure. Gallo smacked home run No. 100 on Wednesday: He has 93 career singles. Think that is odd? Nobody has done this before -- ever. Russell Branyan held the mark for fewest singles at the time of his 100th home run with ... 172. Then it's noted sluggers Ken Phelps, Ryan Howard, Chris Carter and Dave Kingman. Ninety-three singles! It's not even close!
Catcher: Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins; James McCann, Chicago White Sox; Jonathan Lucroy, Los Angeles Angels
Garver earns leadoff responsibilities against lefty pitchers, which is a fantasy differentiator in daily and weekly formats. We can plan ahead with him. Nice to see a progressive manager doing something out of the ordinary. McCann is not a batting-average guy, so be careful. Lucroy has already topped last season's entire home run total. It seems fluky. Don't forget Robinson Chirinos in Houston, and for NL-only managers, Washington's Kurt Suzuki is just about it for available choices.
Corner infield: Michael Chavis and Mitch Moreland, Boston Red Sox; Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
Not much here, as several interesting options have middle-infield eligibility (like Chavis), so use them there. More on Chavis later. Moreland won't hit .209 for long. Sano could come off the injured list in a week. OK, so he disappointed the past few seasons, but the power potential is very real, and perhaps one day he will combine the power with health. See if Oakland's Matt Olson remains available in your league. He is just over 50 percent for ESPN, and has 30-homer pop.
Middle infield: Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays; Derek Dietrich, Cincinnati Reds; Howie Kendrick, Washington Nationals; Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers
Lowe is going to surpass 25 home runs, I believe. He will not win a batting title, but take what you can get. Dietrich is eligible at three spots, and he sure hits right-handers for power. Do not assume he stops playing when Scooter Gennett regains health, either. Kendrick plays first base and hits for average until others resume health. Taylor faces mainly the lefties now but remains a double-digit threat in homers and steals. I would avoid Danny Santana, Logan Forsythe, Jose Iglesias, Ronny Rodriguez and Addison Russell.
Outfield: Franmil Reyes, San Diego Padres; Alex Verdugo, Los Angeles Dodgers; Clint Frazier, New York Yankees; Charlie Tilson, Chicago White Sox
Reyes is going to club at least 25 home runs, and let us be real, someday he could hit 40. It is great power. Add now and move on from Hunter Renfroe. Verdugo can really hit and A.J. Pollock cannot stay really healthy. Verdugo might hit .300 this season. Frazier probably won't, not with his plate discipline, but there is a 25-homer guy lurking, and he should keep playing even as Aaron Hicks returns to the lineup this weekend. Tilson might seem an odd recommendation, but the speedster still has wheels. I call him the AL version of Philadelphia's Roman Quinn. These fellows can steal bases at will, but staying healthy is another matter. I think we have seen the best of Brian Goodwin and Melky Cabrera. Raimel Tapia just doesn't play enough. Houston could promote Yordan Alvarez soon, I suppose, but ask Kyle Tucker about hitting in the minors versus the majors. Actually, ask a lot of players!
Starting pitcher: Martin Perez and Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins; Luke Weaver, Arizona Diamondbacks; Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers; Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers; Jerad Eickhoff and Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies
It might be tough to understand how someone like Perez is pitching so well, but this is not lucky. His FIP is good. His fastball is coming in harder than ever but it's the brand new cutter inducing swinging strikes. Sure seems legit. Davies induces soft contact and has proven successful in the past. Eickhoff looks unhittable. Add him over Eflin. I would ignore Oakland's Chris Bassitt and Baltimore's John Means, still.
Relief pitcher: Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies; Mychal Givens, Baltimore Orioles; Sergio Romo, Miami Marlins; Matt Barnes, Boston Red Sox
Neris is Philly's closer and should keep the role. Barnes looks like he has risen to ninth-inning work, but even if he doesn't accrue many saves, check out that insane strikeout rate. Barnes could reach 100 strikeouts, and that holds value. As for the Baltimore and Miami closers, well, bad teams get saves too. Sure, these fellows could be traded at any point, but get the saves while you can.
Wednesday recap
Box scores
Highlights
• Michael Brantley, OF, Houston Astros: 2-for-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• Jorge Polanco, SS, Minnesota Twins: 5-for-5, HR, 2 RBI
• Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 3-for-4, HR, SB
• Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K
• Brad Peacock, SP/RP, Houston Astros: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
Lowlights:
• Brandon Lowe, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays: 1-for-6, 5 K
• Yan Gomes, C, Washington Nationals: 0-for-4, 4 K
• Tyler Skaggs, SP, Los Angeles Angels: 4 2/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Atlanta Braves: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
• Cody Allen, RP, Los Angeles Angels: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Wednesday takeaways
Chris Sale got 16 swing and misses on his fastball tonight, tied for his 2nd-most swing & misses on fastballs in any outing of his career.
Sale's most fastball swing and misses in outing:
17 -- 6/30/15
16 -- tonight
16 -- 8/16/15- Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) May 9, 2019
• Yes, I realize Sale faced the Triple-A Baltimore Orioles and we should judge the outing -- for which, incidentally, he did not earn the victory -- thusly. Still, the window of opportunity to trade for Sale at a bargain price is gone. In fact, the same goes for much of this rotation. We told you lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and reliable right-hander Rick Porcello would be fine. They are fine now. Boston's pitching boasts a 2.82 ERA in May. Sale has permitted five earned runs over his past four outings and remains entrenched in my top five starters.
• Houston's Brantley just keeps on hitting, and last I saw, he hadn't swung and missed at any pitch in something like a week, which is just crazy for this era. Jorge Soler swung and missed twice while I was typing this. Brantley is hitting a legit .340, which is not a total shock, but the nine home runs in 36 games is. Brantley, even when he played more than 150 games in a season, has never hit more than 20 blasts in a season. While we never know about his durability, boy, he can hit. Let's predict he bats .320 with 25 home runs and 10 steals in 140 games. I think we all would take that!
• The Red Sox claim they will start giving awesome rookie Michael Chavis some outfield reps to prepare him for even more of a utility role, but I have an actual question here: Why would the Red Sox do this just so the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt can play? Also, where is the outfield room? OK, I get the defensive value at second base, but thinking Pedroia can stay healthy is wishful. Third baseman Rafael Devers is hitting a BABIP-fueled .304 sans power, and has been brutal defensively. I would at least platoon him. I feel like the Red Sox are setting us up for a Chavis demotion after his first 2-for-20 slump, which is a shame. Fantasy managers have been frustrated by prospect hitters; Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has not hit. Eloy Jimenez did not hit, then got hurt. Tampa Bay first baseman Nate Lowe is already back at Triple-A. Chavis will hit. On the latest Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast (each Monday and Thursday) we discussed trading away either Chavis or San Diego Padres right-hander Chris Paddack, and we said to keep the hitter.
Health report
• Now I am concerned about Oakland Athletics slugger Khris Davis, who ran into a side wall days ago and bruised his left hip, missed a game and left Wednesday's prematurely. I feel an injured list stint coming. Davis also has not homered in more than three weeks, which is a separate problem. I think, in this case, I am all for 10 days off so he can heal and find his swing. We don't want injured players already struggling to hit to keep playing, because we feel compelled to play them.
• Tampa Bay catcher Mike Zunino, hitter of home runs that hardly balance out the brutal batting average, hurt a quad Wednesday, and assuming the Rays can find another catcher not currently on the 40-man roster, an injured list stint seems pending.
Closing time
• Obscure right-hander Chris Martin saved the Rangers' win on Wednesday, second of his journeyman career, and perhaps he gets another shot along with Shawn Kelley this weekend. Still, Jose Leclerc will close again, and if someone dropped him in your league, go get him.
• The Chicago Cubs took a 2-1 lead into the ninth inning versus Miami and turned to a committee approach with Pedro Strop sent to the injured list for a groin strain. Lefty Kyle Ryan allowed a hit to start the inning and Steve Cishek let the runner score. I think Cishek is the closer for the next three weeks, but Carl Edwards Jr. looms.
W2W4
• ESPN+ features Braves right-hander Mike Soroka versus Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver. While Soroka boasts a 1.14 ERA after four starts and has become popular in fantasy for this, Weaver has been overlooked. Weaver used to be a top Cardinals prospect, much like Jack Flaherty. Then he struggled in 2018 and got traded. Now his ERA is 3.29 with 44 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings, and a mere eight walks. It's all happening! Neither offense is hot these days, so naturally, expect a 10-9 tilt!
• The New York Mets open a series with the Marlins, and offseason acquisition Jed Lowrie figures to make his debut at third base. I want to see the lineup, for starters. Jeff McNeil better be leading off, for he is a hit machine and potential batting champ -- a legit one -- but Lowrie, if not immediately, is surely a better fit in the No. 2 spot than shortstop Amed Rosario. So is Robinson Cano, who will start hitting soon. Miami doesn't hit, but Pablo Lopez, Trevor Richards and Caleb Smith are legit starters -- and Sandy Alcantara could be -- even if none wins in double digits this season.
• The Padres stroll to Denver, and I cannot recommend any of the pitching, but those eager to see shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. return should get their wish. Also watch for more clarity on San Diego outfielders; add Franmil Reyes before he really starts piling on the homers. Colorado right-hander Jon Gray has made two home starts, one good and one bad. I would sit him at Coors Field.
• Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN features Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin against Cubs lefty Jon Lester. Eh, who are we kidding? Christian Yelich faces Javier Baez! That is must-see TV right there. For fantasy purposes, I avoid Chacin for there is little strikeout upside, Lester has been great but likely sees his ERA double at some point, and hitters Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar and Kyle Schwarber deserve watching, for it is hard to make much case to roster them at this point. Have an awesome weekend!
Most recent KaraBlogs
Wednesday, May 8: Mike Fiers, Justin Turner, Hyun-Jin Ryu
Tuesday, May 7: Closer report: Jansen's home runs, Brewers, Angels, etc.
Monday, May 6: Weekend wrap, Ohtani return, Padres outfield, Taillon injury
Thursday, May 2: Soroka, Senzel among sensible free agent adds
Wednesday, May 1: Mallex Smith, steals, Griffin Canning