With roughly a quarter of the MLB season complete, it's pretty clear which relief pitcher has distinguished himself in the fantasy world as the fantasy MVP for that position. It is not any of the top three from ESPN's average live drafts; Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen, New York Mets right-hander Edwin Diaz and Oakland Athletics right-hander Blake Treinen are doing fine, but they do not lead the Player Rater. Neither does Milwaukee Brewers lefty strikeout machine Josh Hader, nor Washington Nationals lefty Sean Doolittle, tops among relievers in bWAR.
No, it's
Yates leads all relief pitchers with 16 saves -- one more than Detroit Tigers right-hander Shane Greene and four more than anyone else -- and has permitted only three earned runs this season, but as with Hader, strikeouts are the differentiator. Hader has whiffed 41 hitters in 19⅓ innings; Yates is next with 37 strikeouts over 20 frames, or 16.6 K's per nine innings and a 45.1 strikeout percentage, which is behind Hader (a ridiculous 56.9 percent) and Boston Red Sox right-hander Matt Barnes at 46.7 percent. For perspective, Hader led relievers with a 46.7 percent K rate in 2018, while Diaz was second and Yates was 10th. These things tend to normalize six months in.
I have discussed Greene in this space before -- relief pitchers lead on Tuesdays in this blog space -- and the concerns with him are obvious. His ERA last season was 5.12, thanks largely to a rough September. The Tigers are bad -- worse than their current record suggests -- and Greene (30 and on a one-year contract) should be pitching the seventh inning for a contender come August, if the Tigers are wise and can get anything in return. We have both performance and role concerns here. Greene saved each of Detroit's first 10 wins. That rate wasn't going to continue and it hasn't.
Yates pitches for a young team that seems to be wild-card relevant, which alleviates one concern. He's likely staying put, and there's no other Padre knocking on the ninth-inning door. Yates was also terrific last season, finding consistency with a hard slider that generates awkward swings. Yates permitted 12 home runs in 2017, so most of us ignored the possibility for saves, including, apparently, the Angels. Last year, Yates, in part due to a pitcher-friendly home ballpark (though not as friendly as most think) and better command, cut the home run rate in half. He has allowed nary a round-tripper in 2019.
Can this continue? Well, the zero in the home run column probably cannot, as fly ball pitchers are wont to allow fly balls that clear fences on occasion, but everything else seems legit. Yates has retired 18 hitters since April 26 -- all but one via strikeout. He has four saves in that span. Hader is Milwaukee's closer and awesome, but Yates still leads him on the Rater. The Padres are not the Astros, Twins or Red Sox, strong offenses in the bottom half of the league in save opportunities because they rarely win games in 3-2 squeakers. Yates has surely graduated to the top 10 of fantasy closers, if not top five, and while time is running out to sell high on Greene, and perhaps Chicago White Sox right-hander Alex Colome, San Francisco Giants lefty Will Smith and unhappy Cincinnati Reds right-hander Raisel Iglesias -- bad teams don't need closers -- I like Yates to continue dominating.
As for the least valuable pitcher among relievers in the fantasy world at the quarter mark, it's also about context, to a degree. Yates wasn't nearly as ignored as Greene was; he was the No. 6 closer off the board when we include early April drafts, while Greene, who would have gone undrafted if the cutoff was Opening Day, was still a late-round choice. Treinen is not the LVP, even though he is struggling a bit and has elbow concerns. Treinen was oddly ignored for Monday's save chance. I think he is clearly hurting and IL-bound soon. Philadelphia Phillies right-hander David Robertson was a top-10 closer in ADP and has nary a save, and none will be coming in the next month as his forearm strain keeps him out.
However, injuries aside, let's go with Texas Rangers right-hander Jose Leclerc, so awesome last season, yet wild and walking everyone in 2019. Perhaps Leclerc, chosen in the same Round 15 as Doolittle and Ken Giles in ADP, regains the closer role soon, as the Rangers intimate, but I can't make a great case to keep him and his 1.79 WHIP around in standard 10- and 12-team formats anymore. This is how quickly things change for relief pitchers. Any team could have had Yates for nothing two springs ago. Leclerc had a 1.90 ERA and 13.3 K/9 a year ago. Now look at them!
Here are two final thoughts for the day on relievers: Houston's Ryan Pressly still hasn't permitted an earned run in 2019 and in his Astros career (41⅔ innings) has permitted only two runs for a 0.44 ERA. His WHIP is 0.55. Everyone is tweeting about him now. Pressly is awesome and worthy of a spot on fantasy rosters, but he really isn't doing anything else except preventing runs (which is, of course, important). His K rate is ordinary, at one per inning. He won't get saves because Roberto Osuna closes (and also isn't piling on the strikeouts). Give Pressly credit, but you don't have to add him instead of Hansel Robles or Luke Jackson, who are getting saves.
Also, let's update the picked-apart remark made myriad times on the Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast -- now with more teams -- that no pitcher from these following clubs will save more than 20 games: Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Royals, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Marlins.
I suppose Baltimore's Mychal Givens and Miami's Sergio Romo could save 20 if they stick around, but their teams are losing 95-plus. Barnes could/should seize the Red Sox role, but when they win, it's by more than three runs, and it seems clear Boston adds an arm at some point. Perhaps Craig Kimbrel lands back there after the June amateur draft, which removes his compensatory pick damage. Jose Alvarado is awesome but sharing the role in Tampa. Leclerc could regain his control, but it's not looking good. One presumes the Braves upgrade from Jackson too.
Monday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
• Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
• Lorenzo Cain, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 5-for-6, RBI, SB
• Khris Davis, DH, Oakland Athletics: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
• Reynaldo Lopez, SP, Chicago White Sox: 7⅔ IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
• Mike Fiers, SP, Oakland Athletics: 5 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Lowlights:
• Stephen Piscotty, OF, Oakland Athletics: 1-for-5, 4 K
• Bryce Harper, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: 0-for-4, 3 K
• Nick Kingham, SP/RP, Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians: 6⅓ IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
• Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins: 5⅔ IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Monday takeaways
Tommy La Stella is the first @Angels LHB to hit 10+ HR in his first 36 games with the team since Mo Vaughn in 1999.
La Stella had 10 home runs in 396 career games entering this season. #TheHaloWay
- Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) May 14, 2019
• If you think you can explain this, be my guest. La Stella was not a power hitter entering this season. That is pretty clear. This season, now with the Angels after years of pinch-hitting success with the Cubs, his isolated power reading bests Alex Bregman, Rhys Hoskins, Javier Baez, Mike Trout and Khris Davis. Yes, La Stella is hitting baseballs harder than ever and with a considerably higher flight path, which happens. His plate discipline remains excellent, with more walks than strikeouts and not a whole lot of either. However, he launched the first opposite field home run of his career Monday. What is this? I added La Stella in a league because, well, why not? Perhaps he hits 25 home runs this season. La Stella plays regularly at second base because the Angels lack options, but he deserves to play now and should keep a decent .275 batting average too.
• Oh, and in other Angels news, Shohei Ohtani hit his first home run of the season. I saw several tweets over the weekend from reasonable analysts about how Ohtani, who debuted last week after Tommy John surgery last year, had no extra-base hits -- and just like last March, there were doubters everywhere. Then he homered off Jose Berrios. No concerns here. Ohtani is not a part-time hitter; he's going to apparently play regularly, regardless of pitcher, and hit third, right behind Trout and ahead of powerless Andrelton Simmons, who at least hits for average and makes contact. Ohtani can be a top-75 hitter this season.
• Oakland welcomed Mark Canha back from the injured list -- and Khris Davis is apparently OK now -- so it was time to bid farewell to Kendrys Morales, who was hitting .204 and, more important, slugging .259. That won't cut it. Canha started Monday, and I want to see how much first baseman Matt Olson plays against left-handed pitching; he played Monday and homered off Yusei Kikuchi, though so did Canha and Davis. Jurickson Profar is in real danger of not only platooning but, thanks to his awful defense, simply getting benched.
Health report
• A pair of White Sox pitchers will miss the rest of the season after arm surgery. It's not like right-hander Nate Jones was expected to stay healthy or aid fantasy managers anyway. Lefty Carlos Rodon could have. Now Rodon will have the UCL replacement surgery and we will not see him until the middle of 2020. Rodon has showed promise at times, but even those in dynasty formats should move on.
• New York Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar tried to come back and hit, but the labrum tear in his right shoulder proved too much to overcome. I would be surprised if Andujar avoids surgery at this point. He hit 27 home runs as a rookie but since his recent return was 3-for-34. There is good news for the Yankees, however: Outfielder Aaron Hicks is back!
W2W4
• ESPN+ boasts the matchup of the night as Padres right-hander Chris Paddack takes on Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, and let's just say it should be a low-scoring game. Paddack's 1.55 ERA is third in baseball behind Jon Lester and Zach Davies. Kershaw's 3.31 ERA is not what we're used to, but this is a different pitcher, relying more on his curveball as his fastball velocity falls, permitting more hard contact and home runs and with a reduced K rate.
• The Brewers have apparently tired of slumping Travis Shaw and have promoted second base prospect Keston Hiura to the majors. Hiura hit .333 with power at Triple-A, and one would presume Mike Moustakas will move back to his more comfortable third base slot while Shaw and his .163 batting average get sent to the minors or stashed on the injured list. We're all hurting with something, after all. Shaw somehow hit 30 home runs each of the past two seasons, but now the magic is gone and the team moves on. Hiura should hit for average, and while I question the power, with these baseballs, who knows? The Brewers are in Philadelphia and face right-hander Jerad Eickhoff and his 1.50 ERA.
Most recent KaraBlogs
Monday, May 13: Weekend wrap, Springer dingers, Puig, Cishek
Thursday, May 9: Pence, Chavis, other free agent adds
Wednesday, May 8: Mike Fiers, Justin Turner, Hyun-Jin Ryu
Tuesday, May 7: Closer report: Jansen's home runs, Brewers, Angels, etc.
Monday, May 6: Weekend wrap, Ohtani return, Padres outfield, Taillon injury