First basemen sans power and batting average upside generally aren't much fun to roster in fantasy baseball leagues, and this is why so many paid so little interest in Pittsburgh Pirates "slugger" Josh Bell this spring. Bell hit 26 home runs in 2017 and we enjoyed that, despite the .255 batting average, but last year, in 148 games and 583 plate appearances, Bell managed to blast all of 12 home runs. Yawn. He went in the 20th round of ESPN ADP, around where older fellows like Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Santana and Justin Smoak went.
Well, Bell blasted a pair of long home runs in Pittsburgh's 6-2 win at Arizona on Tuesday and now has 12 on the season, matching his 2018 total in less than a third of the playing time. What changed? Well, it's the usual stuff really, as Bell is hitting baseballs considerably harder than last year, with a lot more of them in the air and yes, the old launch angle thing comes into play as well. Bell brought a career rate of hitting nearly 50 percent grounders into 2019. Tough to hit for power that way, so he altered things and to his credit, the results are there.
Even now, as Bell rises to the No. 16 spot on the season Player Rater, thanks to three home runs and nine runs batted in since Sunday alone, he is also on the most added list and still out there in 14 percent of ESPN standard leagues. I suspect managers are cutting the likes of Joey Votto, Daniel Vogelbach and Christian Walker to get Bell. Should they? Is it possible first base, the presumed king of offensive positions, is now a streaming position in which fantasy managers should add the hot players and part with those that hit in April, or even longtime producers like Votto?
The answer always depends on context, whether it is the depth of your league or its rules. I cannot cut Votto yet, even for Bell, but nobody would fault you for doing so. Perhaps Votto, who homered Tuesday, doesn't even reach double-digit home runs this season, but I keep him over Bell. It looks silly today, as Bell is hitting .329 and on pace for 40 blasts, but perhaps things shouldn't change so quickly. Bell has traded some plate discipline for this power and hitting in Pittsburgh's beautiful PNC Park -- I really do love that place -- is challenging for power bats. Bell should be rostered in all formats at this point. He always drew walks but like his teammate Gregory Polanco, frustratingly never quite put things together. Now he is 26 and looks awesome.
We always look for lessons when a player finally emerges as a fantasy star and in this case there are several. Bell showed power in 2017. He took his walks. One could see a path to him becoming a top-10 fantasy first baseman, but he had to hit for average. His current BABIP of .364 tells us batting average regression is likely, though, but if Bell hits 30 home runs and bats .260 the rest of the way, he remains a strong fantasy option. This is also about the first-base position; we are seeing new names pop up as relevant all the time, as Walker and Pete Alonso, Luke Voit and others prove. Some of them are older, but that's fine. Just give them a chance.
Tuesday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Jordan Luplow, OF, Cleveland Indians: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 17 K
• Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
Lowlights:
• Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox: 0-for-6, 4 K
• Jay Bruce, 1B/OF, Seattle Mariners: 0-for-4, 4 K
• Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Atlanta Braves: 4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Shelby Miller, SP, Texas Rangers: 1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Jerad Eickhoff, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 4 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Tuesday takeaways
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the youngest AL player to homer twice in a game since Manny Machado in 2012. pic.twitter.com/X02NyQ19w4
- MLB Stats (@MLBStats) May 15, 2019
• Still worried? Look, these are human beings, some considerably younger than others. Guerrero boasts so much talent, it was hard to believe he would have a .146 batting average and .393 OPS (as he did entering Saturday) for long. Now he has a .235 batting average and .720 OPS. That didn't take long, and it won't take long for him to be the top-30 hitter we promised. Perhaps you traded Guerrero away last week or flat-out dumped him, since he is down to 95.4 percent rostered in ESPN standard leagues. Well, they are your teams, so do what you desire, but as we discussed on the Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast myriad times, it only takes one game to alter one's value, and as with the next guy, it doesn't take long to alter one's fantasy value for trades.
• Red Sox ace Sale put on quite the strikeout clinic against the Rockies, and some will whine that he should have stayed in the game for the eighth inning, with a shot at history, despite being at 108 pitches. I thought removing Sale from the game was the right move and I am hardly a stickler for pitch count. I don't believe Sale throwing 108 pitches or 118 pitches in a mid-May game affects how his arm feels in September one bit. No, he and the Red Sox didn't win the game, but don't blame Sale. Any small window of opportunity to trade for him with diminished value is clearly gone.
• Prospect call-ups are apparently all the rage these days. The Milwaukee Brewers debuted second baseman Keston Hiura on Tuesday, as did the Kansas City Royals with Nicky Lopez. Cleveland Indians outfielder Oscar Mercado hit sixth and the Atlanta Braves will promote third baseman Austin Riley on Wednesday, with Ender Inciarte hitting the injured list. Riley is a third baseman with a few weeks of outfield preparation, but he can hit (15 HR in 37 Triple-A games). All these guys can hit. That's why they are here. For ranking purposes, I would go with Hiura first. He should hit for average and modest power. Lopez batted second for the Royals, pushing Adalberto Mondesi to third in a weird lineup. Lopez should steal bases, as will Mercado. None of these players absolutely has to be rostered in a 10-team standard ESPN (points) league (perhaps Hiura), so be careful whom you drop.
• In addition but to far less fanfare, the Angels will debut two-way player Jared Walsh, a lefty-hitting first baseman and reliever, after demoting veteran Justin Bour to the minors after Tuesday's game. Walsh probably won't steal many plate appearances from Ohtani at DH or Albert Pujols at first base, but it should be interesting as more two-way options add significant in-game value for real-life managers. Note: As with teammate Ohtani last season, Welsh will gather statistics as either a hitter or a pitcher, depending on where you put him in your lineup.
• Foltynewicz was really, really good in 2018. So far in 2019 he is really, really bad, including Tuesday's disaster in which he surrendered three more home runs. Foltynewicz permitted 17 home runs in 183 pristine innings last season. In 21⅓ innings this year, eight baseballs have gone over the outfield fence. Move on. Yeah, he could turn things around but move on. It's mid-May. He's not Chris Sale. I thought last year was a bit fluky. Perhaps he is still hurting from the elbow woes that delayed his season debut. Foltynewicz was a reasonable choice in the 18th round of ESPN ADP but move on. I have already moved on from other top-250 pitchers like Nick Pivetta, Collin McHugh, Anibal Sanchez, Aaron Sanchez and Joey Lucchesi.
Health report
• Minnesota Twins catcher Mitch Garver suffered a high ankle sprain at a home plate collision when Los Angeles Angels DH Shohei Ohtani (cleanly) slid into him in the eighth inning. He was out, which preserved the Blake Parker save chance and the Twins won. Garver is out now, too, with an injured list stint likely. You say this is no big deal, since Garver is technically a backup and I say, well, Garver has nine home runs and is the No. 3 catcher on the Player Rater, after Willson Contreras and Omar Narvaez. It's been an odd season for catchers. Anyway, it's tough to keep Garver rostered in 10-team leagues, but try. He's pretty good.
• Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus grabbed for his hamstring while running to first base and one would think he's not going to be playing for at least the next 10 days as well. Andrus is the No. 4 shortstop on the Player Rater, hitting .325 and on his way to perhaps another 20/20 season, just like 2017. Amazing how nobody seemed to want him in drafts this spring. Nevertheless, perhaps Andrus misses only a day or two, but if it's a month, he is worth keeping around, for he is a proven five-category fantasy performer.
Closing time
• It was becoming clear that Anthony Swarzak was no longer the Seattle closer, as he was pitching -- and not well -- early in games. Lefty Roenis Elias entered in the seventh inning Tuesday with a 4-3 lead and, well, he finished things off. You don't see many seven-out saves. Elias fanned five of the eight batters faced. Perhaps manager Scott Servais doesn't know for sure who gets the next save chance, but I'd rather roster Elias than any other Seattle reliever.
• I think we can part ways with Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Emilio Pagan after he tossed a scoreless seventh inning at Miami. Diego Castillo handled the eighth inning, sans incident against arguably the worst offense we've seen perhaps forever, and Jose Alvarado would have pitched the ninth had the Rays not scored a ninth-inning run to extend the lead to 4-0. Pagan might get a save here and there but it sure seems like the ones he got in late-April were not harbingers of more. He's also not pitching the volume of innings to aid us much as a setup man.
W2W4
• In addition to watching all the promoted prospects and seeing where the Braves slot Riley in the lineup, check out the established Braves right-hander Mike Soroka on ESPN against the Cardinals. Soroka hasn't permitted a home run in five starts, compiling a 1.21 ERA. Walks and perhaps last year's shoulder woes concern me a tad, but Soroka has strikeout stuff. I moved on from his opponent, Michael Wacha, two seasons ago. Wacha has two quality starts out of seven tries this season. Yuck.
• You don't want Edwin Jackson in a fantasy league, even in a deeper one, but I can't feign disinterest that when he throws a pitch for the Blue Jays today he sets the record for appearing in a game for the most big league teams. I love that! The Giants debut 24-year-old right-hander Shaun Anderson, a middling prospect, but we saw what Dereck Rodriguez achieved as a rookie in that home ballpark, so anything is possible.
• Rangers lefty Mike Minor is the No. 16 starting pitcher on the Player Rater. Yep, stats don't lie. Minor faces the Royals and should keep the momentum going against that offense, and he's rostered in most leagues at this point, but can't I keep shaking my head at this development? Minor pitched exceedingly well down the stretch last season and I still didn't buy it. I think we have to buy it now, whether the Rangers trade him to an NL East contender or not.
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