Thanksgiving Day serves us a triple helping of NFL action, which means a proverbial buffet of betting opportunities from points spreads to props on players to stuff the stats sheet.
The day gets underway with the Green Bay Packers taking on the Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET, Fox) in a key NFC North battle, with the winner of Thursday's game inching closer to the division-leading Chicago Bears. Next up is the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Kansas City Chiefs (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+), with both teams jockeying to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Joe Burrow is expected to make his return to the lineup as the Cincinnati Bengals visit Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock) to close out the day.
Matt Bowen, Eric Karabell, Eric Moody, Pamela Maldonado, Ben Solak and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you make informed bets on the games.
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook.
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GB-DET: Game picks
Prop bets | Betting trends
KC-DAL: Game picks
Prop bets | Betting trends
CIN-BAL: Game picks
Prop bets | Betting trends
This will be the 23rd meeting between the Lions and Packers on Thanksgiving Day, the most common matchup on the holiday in NFL history. Detroit leads the series on Thanksgiving 12-9-1, with the Packers winning their last meeting on the holiday in 2023 as an 8.5-point underdog in Jordan Love's first start on Thanksgiving.
The Lions and and Packers both won last week and are hot on the tail of the Chicago Bears in the NFC North.
Green Bay is a 2.5-point underdog Thursday, the first time the Packers have been an underdog this season.
Packers-Lions game bet
Total points OVER 48.5 (-115)
Maldonado: Both offenses walk into this with the same structural advantage; neither defense can actually stop sustained drives. Detroit is sitting at almost 400 yards per game with a run game that wins early downs, and Green Bay quietly lives with top-tier third-down efficiency. The Lions' defense leaks yardage each week and the Packers give up long fields without turnovers, with both red zone units breaking more than they hold. This is the formula that pushes this game into the 50s -- long drives, short fields and no unit that can force the game off script.
Player props, bets
Daniel Dopp breaks down Jahmyr Gibbs' impressive fantasy game vs. the Giants.
Jahmyr Gibbs to record 125+ rushing + receiving yards (+200)
Bowen: Gibbs has topped120 total yards in three straight games with head coach Dan Campbell calling the offense in Detroit. And Gibbs is also playing at a different speed. Home run juice here. Tougher matchup for sure versus that Green Bay defense, but I'm betting on Gibbs as a dual-threat playmaker.
Christian Watson receiving yards OVER 49.5 (-120)
Moody: Watson is in a great spot here. He has quietly become the most reliable option in a Packers passing game that ranks near the bottom of the league in attempts, yet he had cleared 45 receiving yards in every game he has played and has seen at least four targets in each. Detroit has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers, and Green Bay's offensive line ranks fifth in pass block win rate. With the Lions sitting 28th in pass rush win rate, Jordan Love should have plenty of time to find Watson downfield.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
Green Bay is 1-4 against the spread in road games this season.
The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games.
Detroit is 26-11 ATS as a favorite since 2023.
The under has hit in the Lions' past three games against teams with winning records.
Jeff Saturday, Dan Graziano, Domonique Foxworth and Jason McCourty give their keys to a Chiefs victory over the Cowboys.
Patrick Mahomes (270.6) and Dak Prescott (267.4) rank first and second in passing yards per game this season. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, this will be the third Thanksgiving Day game between the top two players in passing yards per game. The other instances occurred in the 1950s between George Ratterman and Bobby Layne (1950), and Layne and Tobin Rote (1956).
The Cowboys rallied from down 21-0 to defeat the NFC East division rival Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, while the Chiefs were able to squeeze by the Indianapolis Colts in overtime.
The Chiefs are field goal favorites in Thursday's game, with both teams fighting to make their way into the playoffs.
Chiefs-Cowboys game bets
Chiefs to cover -3 (-120)
Maldonado: The Chiefs offense isn't explosive anymore, but it's stable, efficient and built to punish defenses that break in space. That's exactly what Dallas does right now. The Cowboys are leaking yardage, bleeding explosive plays and losing every trench battle that matters. They survive by front-running but collapse when someone forces discipline. KC is dependable on both sides and has a defense that actually compresses windows and forces opponents to earn every yard.
Total points UNDER 52.5 (-110)
Solak: It's hard to get over 52.5 total points when the Chiefs play at the pace they do, especially against a Cowboys defense that has improved with the midseason additions of DeMarvion Overshown, Quinnen Williams, Shavon Revel Jr. and more.
Player props, bets
Stephen A. Smith explains why the Cowboys can lose to the Chiefs and run the table for the rest of their schedule.
Patrick Mahomes passing yards OVER 269.5 (-115)
Walder: The Chiefs have had a pretty severe efficiency split between facing man and zone. Against man coverage, the Chiefs average 0.10 EPA per dropback, 14th highest in the league. But they become the best offense in football against zone, at 0.27 EPA per dropback. And guess who runs the second-most zone coverage in the league? The Cowboys, at 74%. Add in that the Cowboys have a very good passing offense in their own right, and that should keep Mahomes throwing throughout the game.
Mahomes to record 25+ rushing yards (+110)
Bowen: Mahomes has rushed for 28 or more yards in five of his past seven games, and he gets a Dallas defense giving up an average of 24.5 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. With the expectation that Dallas sits back in zone defense, Mahomes will have space to pull the ball down when he sees open rush lanes.
Xavier Worthy receiving yards OVER 37.5 (-110)
Moody: The Chiefs should lean on Mahomes and their pass catchers against a vulnerable Cowboys secondary that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season. Rashee Rice draws most of the attention, and rightfully so, but Worthy is in a good spot here. He has seen at least seven targets in three of his past four games and has cleared this line in two of those outings.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
Dallas is 4-1 against the spread as an underdog this season.
The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their past four games as a home underdog.
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in road games and 1-4 ATS as a road favorite this season.
The Chiefs are 0-3 ATS in their past three games overall and 0-3 ATS in their past three games as a favorite.
On "First Take," Stephen A. Smith, Chris Canty and Jeff Saturday join Shae Cornette to discuss how Shedeur Sanders will perform against the San Francisco 49ers and what to expect from the Cincinnati Bengals with the anticipated return of Joe Burrow.
Joe Burrow is likely to make his return Thursday, and Burrow and Lamar Jackson facing off will mark the first starting QB matchup between former Heisman winners on Thanksgiving Day since at least 1950, when QB starts were first tracked.
The Ravens have won five straight and are the odds-on favorite to win the AFC North after starting the season 1-5. After dropping four straight and eight of their past nine, the Bengals will be looking for a spark from their superstar QB.
The Ravens are a touchdown favorite Thursday. The teams meet again in Week 15.
Bengals-Ravens game bets
Bengals to cover +7 (-120)
Karabell: Yeah, I'm all-in on Joe Burrow returning and lighting up the Baltimore defense. With the way Lamar Jackson is performing, likely compromised by some or several injuries, I think the Bengals can win the game. Luckily, for this pick, I just need them to cover a touchdown. The Bengals will do that.
Solak: I love the spread at +7, and I will have some money line exposure as well. This is the spot to fade the Ravens, as Jackson is clearly banged up and coming off a short week. Jackson's rushing yardage line is set at 26.5, the lowest rushing yards prop he's had in the past three years. With the added juice of getting Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase back, along with a defense that has had quietly better games over the past two weeks, I expect the Bengals to play this very close.
Ravens to cover -7 (Even)
Maldonado: The Ravens can expose every Cincinnati flaw without resistance. The Bengals can't sustain drives, protect or stop the run. Their losses follow the same script: get pushed off the field early, fall behind in possessions and never catch up. Baltimore lives in that kind of environment, controlling pace, winning on the ground and the defense tightening inside the 20. Cincinnati hasn't shown it can survive a physical, efficient offense, or handle a defense that compresses space. If the Ravens stick to their identity, that's enough to win by this margin.
Player props, bets
Joe Burrow passing yards UNDER 252.5 (-115)
Bowen: Burrow hasn't played football since Week 2. Tee Higgins (concussion) is down for Thursday night. And that Ravens defense has tightened up, allowing only 176.7 passing yards over the past three games. I like the under here.
Lamar Jackson pass attempts OVER 27.5 (-120)
Walder: There are two major factors pointing to Jackson's pass attempts over hitting. The first is the Bengals have a pass-inducing defense, with the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation against them. That should push Jackson to throw more than he otherwise might. The other factor: Burrow. With the Bengals' star quarterback expected back in action, that pushes up our point expectation for Cincinnati and reduces the likelihood the Ravens pull away in an early blowout. In turn, that increases the likelihood that the Ravens will have to keep passing.
Derrick Henry rushing yards OVER 91.5 (-115)
Moody: The Bengals' run defense has been generous all season, allowing the most rushing yards per game. This is a dream matchup for Henry, especially with him being just 18 yards shy of passing Jim Brown (12,312) for 11th on the all-time rushing list. The veteran should see plenty of carries in this spot.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
Cincinnati is 1-4 against the spread in road games this season.
The Bengals are 1-6 following a loss. (They lost in Week 12 to the Patriots.)
Baltimore is 5-0 against teams with losing records this season.
Ravens games against divisional opponents are 7-1 to the over since 2024.