It's Thanksgiving week, which means plenty of NFL action is on tap.
Week 13 gets underway with a Thanksgiving Day tripleheader, leading off with the Green Bay Packers visiting the Detroit Lions in an NFC North clash. The Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys meet up in the second game of the day, and the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens close out the action.
We also have a Black Friday game to look forward to, as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Chicago Bears.
Sunday afternoon features a clash between NFC South rivals, with the Houston Texans trying to close the gap in the division with the Indianapolis Colts. The late afternoon window is highlighted by the Buffalo Bills hitting the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders close out the slate on "Sunday Night Football," and the week wraps up with the New England Patriots hosting the New York Giants on "Monday Night Football."
So which games offer early betting appeal?
Matt Bowen, Eric Karabell, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Ben Solak looked at the early Week 13 odds and identified which ones are worth jumping on now before potential shifts later in the week.
Note: Odds at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook.
Houston Texans to cover +3.5 (-115) at Indianapolis Colts
Bowen: I'll take Houston with the points because of DeMeco Ryan's defense. The Texans rank sixth in the NFL with 33 sacks, and their ability to generate pressure on Colts quarterback Daniel Jones will impact critical game situations. When pressured this season, Jones' off-target rate jumps to 25%. Bet on the Texans' defense to dictate the flow of this game, while the club could also get a boost with the return of starting quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Last week: Bears -3 vs. Steelers (Bears won, 31-28)
Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks total points UNDER 42.5 (-115)
Maldonado: Neither offense plays with pace. Minnesota with J.J. McCarthy has become one of the most predictable, low-ceiling units in the league. The Vikings struggle on third down, can't generate explosives outside of Justin Jefferson, and they drain clock without producing points. The Seahawks score when they control the script, but this matchup doesn't force them into aggression. The Seahawks' run game and front-led defense slows the game even more. I see a controlled, steady game.
Last week: Jaguars-Cardinals over 47.5 (Jaguars won 27-24)
Kansas City Chiefs-Dallas Cowboys total points UNDER 51.5 (-115)
Moody: The Cowboys' defense has tightened up since adding defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, allowing just 37 total points over their last two games. Dallas' defensive front ranks fifth in run stop win rate and seventh in pass rush win rate over that frame. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have gone under in eight of 11 games this season, and their defense allows the fourth-fewest points per game. The total has also stayed under in six of the last eight Cowboys-Chiefs matchups. With both teams on a short week, the under looks like the better play here.
Philadelphia Eagles to cover -7 (-110) vs. Chicago Bears
Solak: The Bears are 8-3 with a negative point differential, and while their continued resilience in close games is impressive for such a young team, they're due for a letdown. The Eagles will bring the first above-average defense Chicago has seen since September. Arguably, the Ravens in late October would qualify, but the Bears lost that game 30-16. Defensive injuries also continue to accumulate in Chicago, and the short week won't help their hurt players get back on the field. Expect the Eagles to control this game pole to pole.
Last week: Bills-Texans under 43.5 (Texans won, 23-19), Saints ML vs. Falcons (Falcons won, 24-10)
Pittsburgh Steelers to cover +4 (-115) vs. Buffalo Bills
Solak: The Steelers have a great matchup against a Bills defense that struggles mightily with heavy personnel and downhill rushing attacks. Expect Pittsburgh to score consistently, even if Aaron Rodgers can't go. The Bills' biggest struggles on offense this year have come against teams with speedy outside edge rushers (Atlanta, Houston). That fits the Steelers' defensive identity perfectly, especially if Alex Highsmith returns to the lineup. Early forecasts show some weather in this game, and a snowy Pittsburgh afternoon would only help the Steelers.