Props that Pop: Eight players we're betting to hit the 'over' this season

Football fans are a passionate bunch. We love planting flags. Whether it's drawing up a list of "my guys" or committing to memory our "never again(s)," the excitement of an upcoming season always results in the formation of strong opinions.

Prop bets can work as an outlet for these fervent feelings. They allow bettors to double-down on enthusiastic takes while also providing potential context for a player's season-long projection.

There are options galore. For instance, will Joe Burrow throw for over 4,000 yards again in 2025? Can Jalen Hurts continue his prowess at the goal line? How will Drake London perform with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, and will Trey McBride make more frequent trips to the end zone?

Vegas has thoughts. We have answers.

Here are our favorite "Props that Pop" as we prep for the regular season. -- Loza

Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Joe Burrow to go OVER 4,000.5 passing yards (-140)

Burrow has ice in his veins; that has been scientifically proven (don't fact check that). Yes, he has dealt with some pretty serious injuries that impacted his 2020 and 2023 seasons, but when he's healthy, he's arguably the best statistical passing quarterback in the NFL.

In the three seasons that he didn't miss significant time due to injury, Burrow had 4,611 passing yards (in 2021), 4,475 passing yards (in 2022) and 4,918 passing yards (in 2024). Not much has changed for this offense. Both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are back, as is excellent pass-catching running back Chase Brown. The defense is still objectively terrible, and Burrow will likely have to throw just as often in 2025 as he did last season. I'm running it back with Burrow again and with zero hesitation. -- Dopp

Trevor Lawrence to go OVER 3,500.5 passing yards (-125)

Lawrence cleared 3,600 passing yards in each of his first three pro campaigns before falling short last year after a shoulder injury ended his season prematurely. It is worth noting, however, that Lawrence averaged 204.5 passing yards per contest in 2024, which would have gotten him to 3,476 passing yards had he stayed healthy. That's close enough to 3,500 for me to believe in the over this time around.

With Brian Thomas Jr. stretching the field, the addition of first-round pick Travis Hunter, plus Brenton Strange working as a solid complement, Lawrence has the tools at his disposal to rebound. The on-boarding of Liam Cohen, who coached Baker Mayfield to a career-best 4,500 passing yards and 41 passing TDs last season, also boosts Lawrence's appeal. -- Loza

Jalen Hurts to go OVER 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-130)

This is a line that very few NFL quarterbacks could ever dream of hitting, but Hurts isn't your typical quarterback. Also benefiting from the "tush push," Hurts finished each of the last four seasons with at least 10 rushing touchdowns, including 13, 15 and 14 in the last three years alone. Jalen is a touchdown machine at the goal line, accounting for 25 goal-to-go carries last season, with 17 of those carries coming inside the 2-yard line.

Honestly, not much is going to change this year. Even with Saquon Barkley's presence last season, Hurts crushed this prop. And since the "tush push" isn't going anywhere, there's almost no reason to think he won't get back to this number again. I know it's a big number -- double-digit touchdowns is extremely hard to predict -- but if there's one player you should be supremely confident in getting there, it's Hurts, who has the offense and goal-line workload to hit this mark and then some. -- Dopp

Javonte Williams to go OVER 500.5 rushing yards (-105)

Listen, I'm not super high on the Dallas Cowboys' rushing game this year, but even I can't stay away from this one. I know Williams wasn't impressive last season with the Denver Broncos, totaling a meager 513 rushing yards last season. He averaged 30 rushing yards per game! That's how bad it was. And yet, I'm buying Williams to hit at least 500 rushing yards again in 2025.

Williams has topped this mark in three of his four seasons, with the exception coming in his sophomore season when he was limited to just four games after tearing the ACL, LCL and posterolateral corner in his right knee. Now in Dallas, with only Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue behind him, Williams finds himself as the clear lead back in this Dak Prescott-led offense. I'm definitely buying the passing game more than the running game, but at only 500.5 yards and with little to no competition for carries on a team that should play better this year than it did last year, I'm buying the dip and betting on Williams to hit this line for a fourth time in five seasons. -- Dopp

Omarion Hampton to go OVER 825.5 rushing yards (-115)

A powerful and prolific college producer, Hampton has his name written all over the North Carolina Tar Heels' record books. Not only did he log eight straight games over 100 rushing yards in Chapel Hill last year, but he was the only FBS player with more than 1,000 rushing yards after contact in both 2023 and 2024. He is set up to feast in Jim Harbaugh's run-friendly approach.

With Najee Harris still recovering from an ocular injury, Hampton has gained valuable first-time reps at training camp. He projects to start the season at the Bolts' RB1 and figures to garner upwards of 16-18 touches per contest. For reference, J.K. Dobbins posted 905 rushing yards on 15 carries per game as L.A.'s starter last year. Hampton is set up to register 1,000 rushing yards in his first pro campaign. -- Loza

Drake London to go OVER 1,000.5 receiving yards (-170)

London dominated in his first season without notorious wide receiver hater Arthur Smith. Zac Robinson came in as the new offensive coordinator and helped both London and Bijan Robinson reach new heights in 2024, especially once Michael Penix Jr. emerged as the starting QB in Week 16.

With Penix under center over the final three games, London saw 40 targets and turned that into 22 catches for 352 receiving yards and two touchdowns. In 2025, Penix and London will look to continue building that upon that chemistry they developed over those final three games. The Falcons didn't add any notable pass catchers, and there's very little reason to believe London will take a step backward this year. -- Dopp

Jameson Williams to go OVER 850.5 receiving yards (-140)

Williams caught only 58 balls in 2024, but he averaged over 17 yards per reception and was second to Amon-Ra St. Brown in targets for the Lions. A legit deep threat who hauled in six grabs of 40-plus yards, Williams evolved as the season went on, as he also began to draw more targets in the intermediate range.

That demonstrates growth and suggests an evolution in the speedster's deployment. New OC John Morton, who spent the last two seasons in Denver working as the Broncos' passing game coordinator, has promised to open up the playbook and stay aggressive. That bodes well for Williams' continued development and the likelihood of registering 1,000-plus receiving yards for a second consecutive season.-- Loza

Trey McBride to go OVER 4.5 receiving TDs (-110)

McBride's (lack of) end zone appearances were a regular point of frustration in 2024, as the 25-year-old failed to catch a touchdown pass until Week 17. Every bettor knows, however, that TDs are fluky. It's worth noting that McBride was second on the Cardinals in end zone targets (behind Marvin Harrison Jr.), drawing 10 high-value looks.

For greater context, his 10 end zone targets were the second-most among all tight ends, behind only David Njoku and tied with Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz and George Kittle. Assuming even a static number of opportunities, McBride figures to more than double his 2024 scoring numbers.-- Loza