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Basketball recruiting insider- Jeff Borzello is a basketball recruiting insider. He has joined ESPN in 2014.
The No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats are set to tip off the 2025 State Farm Champions Classic against the No. 17 Michigan State Spartans (6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with the No. 5 Duke Blue Devils slated to close the night against the No. 24 Kansas Jayhawks (9 p.m. ET, ESPN).
All but one of the 12 games in the past six editions of Champions Classic have been decided by double digits. Could we see another pair of close contests Tuesday?
Men's college basketball reporters Myron Medcalf and Jeff Borzello break down what could decide each matchup below.
(12) Kentucky vs. (17) Michigan State
How Kentucky could win: Michigan State doesn't have a player like Mikel Brown Jr. -- the projected NBA lottery pick out of Louisville who scored 29 points in the Cardinals' win against Kentucky last Tuesday -- but the Wildcats have to be better defensively than they were against their archrivals. They can't allow the Spartans to have the same success the Cardinals had with isolation and pick-and-roll plays a week ago.
On offense, Kentucky is at its best when it plays fast but under control. That pace (the Wildcats are 83rd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom) allows Collin Chandler (57% from 3) to get open looks, and Denzel Aberdeen and Otega Oweh to create shots -- a potential winning formula against Michigan State.
Denzel Aberdeen throws down big slam vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers
How Michigan State could win: Michigan State doesn't win the talent battle, but Tom Izzo will be the most experienced coach on the floor, a potential key to the game. It will be difficult for the Spartans to win by matching Kentucky's pace, but they can replicate Louisville's success in exposing the Wildcats' defensive vulnerabilities in half-court actions.
The Spartans will also have to limit Oweh's impact, and force other players to take shots they're not accustomed to shooting. Izzo will also need 6-foot-9 freshman Cam Ward (18 points, 10 rebounds, 2 steals in the Nov. 8 win over Arkansas) to play at a high level under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden.
The X factor we haven't considered yet: Michigan State is just 9-for-43 from the 3-point line in its past two Champions Classic appearances -- and this season's team has made just 21.7% of its shots from beyond the arc (352nd out of 365 Division I programs entering the week). Another cold night for the Spartans from deep might spell doom against a Kentucky team that is top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
On the other side, Kentucky coach Mark Pope said Jaland Lowe's status is undetermined due to injury. If the Pitt transfer is unavailable, Aberdeen will be forced to lead his team and avoid foul trouble. A couple of early fouls on the Florida transfer, arguably the Wildcats' best defensive player, could change the outcome of this game. -- Medcalf
(5) Duke vs. (24) Kansas
How Duke could win: These teams have a noticeable talent gap, which will be especially true if Darryn Peterson can't suit up or isn't 100% healthy because of his hamstring injury.
Duke didn't look efficient offensively in the first half of its season opener against Texas, but the Blue Devils have been firing on all cylinders since. Cameron Boozer has been as productive as expected (more on that below), but the perimeter balance has been effective, too. Duke has made 36 3s over its past three games, with Dame Sarr beginning to emerge and Patrick Ngongba II being an anchor inside. Kansas couldn't stop North Carolina once the Tar Heels got going in the second half of the Jayhawks' Nov. 7 loss, and I expect a repeat of that Tuesday night.
How Kansas could win: If Peterson doesn't play, it's hard to see the Jayhawks prevail. Can they find any level of success limiting Boozer's touches near the rim -- the way Texas did on Nov. 4 -- with some combination of Flory Bidunga, Tre White and Bryson Tiller? Without Peterson, Kansas' offense has run through Bidunga, who will need to be aggressive against Ngongba and Maliq Brown.
Bill Self has a variety of battle-tested veteran wings; White, Melvin Council Jr. and Jayden Dawson will also have to step up if Kansas wants to keep up with Duke's firepower.
What does Boozer have to do to close the gap in the race for the No. 1 pick? Self raised alarm bells over the weekend when he said that Kansas won't have Peterson -- who leads ESPN's debut 2026 mock draft, with BYU's AJ Dybantsa and Boozer rounding out the top three -- at least for the "immediate future" because of his lingering hamstring issues. Peterson has missed the Jayhawks' past two games, and Self said after the first absence that it was precautionary. But Peterson's availability for Tuesday -- and potentially longer than that -- is now in doubt. NBA scouts and executives will want to know whether Peterson's situation is related to load management and can thus be solved with rest, or whether it's something more serious.
Meanwhile, Boozer has continued to be productive, finishing with 35 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks and 3 steals against Indiana State on Friday. We should expect more massive stat lines in Tuesday's game -- and in upcoming matchups against Florida, Michigan State and Texas Tech -- which will keep him in the conversation for the top pick. -- Borzello