Saturday features another SEC clash with plenty of College Football Playoff implications when the No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers visit the No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs.
Tennessee (8-1, 5-1 conference) currently sits atop the SEC standings, while Georgia is fourth (7-2, 5-2). The Vols are 6-1 to win the conference, trailing the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (+115) and No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (+375). Georgia is 12-1.
Both Georgia and Tennessee are well-positioned in the CFP rankings heading into their Week 12 matchup, with the Bulldogs -450 to make the playoff and the Vols -320. Georgia is the fourth choice to win the national championship at 9-1, and Tennessee is seventh on the board at 18-1.
Kickoff from Stanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia is at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC/ESPN+.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Georgia -10
Moneyline: Georgia -400, Tennessee +300
Over/under: 48.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
First-half spread: Georgia -6.5 (-110), Tennessee +6.5 (-110)
First-half moneyline: Georgia -290, Tennessee +225
First-half total points: 24.5 (Over +102/Under -125)
Maldonado's pick: Tennessee-Georgia first half UNDER 24.5
The opening half of this game figures to be a slow-motion chess match between two highly-skilled, but risk-averse grandmasters. Methodical, strategic and low-scoring.
Tennessee's offensive woes, particularly in the first half, are a crucial factor. The Volunteers' inability to score in the opening two quarters of their last three games is likely to persist against Georgia's brick wall of a defense. Despite managing 20 points in the first half against Mississippi State last week, they mustered only seven against Kentucky and were blanked by Alabama the in previous two weeks.
The Volunteers' offensive struggles are compounded by their porous offensive line. True freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been sacked 16 times this season, with seven of those coming on the road. Tennessee's propensity for penalties (ranking 120th overall and third-worst in the SEC) further hampers their offensive production. Iamaleava's passing inconsistency -- he has surpassed 200 yards in only three of nine games -- suggests he may face significant challenges a stout Georgia defense that ranks 21st against the run, which could force Iamaleava into more passing situations.
Georgia's offense, despite its reputation, is not without its own weaknesses. The Bulldogs' ground game has been notably ineffective, averaging a mere 119 rushing yards per game (104th in FBS), making their offense more predictable. Quarterback Carson Beck's turnover issues are concerning, as he has 12 interceptions, nine of which have come in the last four games. Turnovers could further prevent Georgia from putting up points against a Tennessee defense that has given up just 13 total touchdowns this season, tied for the fourth fewest.
Beck has struggled with decision-making, often forcing passes into tight coverage, and has acknowledged as much.
"There's times where it's OK to throw it away if it's not there," Beck said. "That's something I think I did a lot better last year."
Just as in chess, where cautious play leads to drawn-out and low-scoring matches, this game feels poised for a similar outcome that is more about defense and attrition than explosive scoring, making the under 24.5 a logical and calculated choice.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Georgia has covered five straight meetings against Tennessee, but is just 1-7 ATS as a favorite on the year.
Tennessee has the second-worst ATS record as a road underdog since the start of last season.
Georgia is 1-7 ATS as a favorite this season, the second-worst in FBS (min. 5 games; Arizona 0-5 ATS).
Tennessee is 3-0 ATS against ranked teams this season, the second-best in FBS (Mississippi State 4-0 ATS).
Georgia has failed to cover in three straight home games; The Bulldogs have never lost four straight ATS within a season under Kirby Smart.
Georgia is 3-5 ATS in its last eight following a loss (including an ATS loss earlier this season) and 8-6-1 ATS off a loss overall under Smart.
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