The numbers had faith in Ole Miss, and the Rebels returned the favor. Both SP+ and FPI projected them as favorites against Georgia on Saturday, but it was hard to trust the accuracy of that considering their recent history of struggling to compete with the Georgia- and Alabama-level talents. But Lane Kiffin's squad won with shocking ease, overcoming an early interception and Georgia touchdown and finishing the game on a 28-3 run.
While Ole Miss remains behind Ohio State, Texas and Oregon in this week's SP+ ratings, the Rebels continue to keep pace; they're one of five teams within three points of the top spot in the rankings.
By the way, that top spot actually didn't change hands for the first time in a while. With a comfortable win over Purdue, Ohio State held onto the No. 1 ranking by about a point over Texas. But three other teams loom nearby, and all five of these top teams could feature in the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking (hence the lack of unbeatens near the top), so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
This week's movers
Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week.
Tulane: up 3.4 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 52nd to 34th)
East Carolina: up 3.0 points (from 96th to 84th)
Ohio: up 2.5 points (from 101st to 96th)
New Mexico: up 2.4 points (from 119th to 115th)
UTEP: up 2.2 points (from 131st to 126th)
Liberty: up 2.0 points (from 71st to 65th)
Air Force: up 1.9 points (from 122nd to 119th)
Marshall: up 1.9 points (from 82nd to 72nd)
Navy: up 1.8 points (from 68th to 64th)
Louisiana: up 1.8 points (from 51st to 41st)
It was a strange week in that most of the big, positive movement came from Group of 5 teams and most of the big, negative movement came from the power conferences. But all of the teams above certainly looked strong this week, and SP+ finally began to trust a Tulane team that has won its last two games by a combined 86-9. The two-loss Green Wave will need Boise State to slip up to have a shot at the G5's playoff bid, but they're one of the best teams in the G5 universe.
Moving down
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Florida State: down 4.8 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 72nd to 95th)
Florida: down 4.7 points (from 26th to 39th)
Washington: down 4.1 points (from 31st to 46th)
Georgia: down 3.8 points (from third to sixth)
LSU: down 3.6 points (from 12th to 15th)
Oklahoma State: down 3.1 points (from 63rd to 71st)
Purdue: down 2.9 points (from 102nd to 106th)
Michigan: 2.8 points (from 30th to 40th)
Miami: down 2.7 points (from seventh to 10th)
Mississippi State: down 2.7 points (from 76th to 88th)
With the possible exception of Michigan, most of these teams looked awful this week.
With preseason projections phased further and further out, Florida State found a trapdoor this week, laying another egg and falling precipitously. Those preseason numbers were propping up both the Seminoles and Washington, who also fell by a good amount. Florida did as well, with the Gators' catastrophically banged-up offense failing to do much of anything against Texas.
Conference rankings
Here are FBS conferences ranked by average SP+:
1. SEC: 14.1 average rating (33.1 offense, 19.1 defense)
2. Big Ten: 7.5 average rating (27.1 offense, 19.6 defense)
3. ACC: 5.4 average rating (30.7 offense, 25.3 defense)
4. Big 12: 4.9 average rating (29.7 offense, 24.9 defense)
5. Sun Belt: -7.1 average rating (24.5 offense, 31.5 defense)
6. AAC: -7.6 average rating (25.0 offense, 32.7 defense)
7. Mountain West: -8.8 average rating (24.1 offense, 32.6 defense)
8. Conference USA: -13.4 average rating (19.0 offense, 32.4 defense)
9. MAC: -13.9 average rating (19.7 offense, 33.6 defense)
It appears we've got three races on our hands here: The Big 12 has closed the gap on the ACC a bit, the AAC has been trying to slowly reel in the Sun Belt for a while, and the No. 9 spot also won't be decided for a while between the MAC and CUSA.
SP+ projects the College Football Playoff
Here's what the new 12-team CFP would look like based on updated SP+ projections (and what the results would look like if the projected favorite won each game, even though that never actually happens).
First round
12 Boise State at 5 Indiana (Hoosiers by 11.6)
11 Alabama at 6 Ohio State (Buckeyes by 5.4)
10 Ole Miss at 7 Penn State (Rebels by 0.8)
9 Tennessee at 8 Notre Dame (Irish by 3.5)
Quarterfinals
Rose Bowl: 1 Oregon vs. 8 Notre Dame (Ducks by 3.6)
Peach Bowl: 4 SMU vs. 5 Indiana (Hoosiers by 3.3)
Fiesta Bowl: 3 BYU vs. 6 Ohio State (Buckeyes by 18.3)
Sugar Bowl: 2 Texas vs. 10 Ole Miss (Horns by 1.8)
Semifinals
Cotton Bowl: 1 Oregon vs. 5 Indiana (Ducks by 7.4)
Orange Bowl: 2 Texas vs. 6 Ohio State (Buckeyes by 1.1)
Finals
1 Oregon vs. 6 Ohio State (Buckeyes by 2.3)
Seeding is going to matter so much here, especially if all five of the teams within reach of the top SP+ ranking make the field.
Résumé SP+
Since the College Football Playoff rankings are on the horizon, I'm also including résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.
As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a résumé evaluation tool, but résumé SP+ attempts to fill that latter gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top-five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin) and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.
(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, almost every team here ends up with a negative score. It is what it is.)
Here is this week's résumé SP+ top 15:
1. Indiana (10-0): -6.5
2. Ohio State (8-1): -7.2
3. Texas (8-1): -8.5
4. Oregon (10-0): -9.6
5. Notre Dame (8-1): -11.0
6. Tennessee (8-1): -13.1
7. BYU (9-0): -13.7
8. Alabama (7-2): -14.5
9. Ole Miss (8-2): -15.3
10. Penn State (8-1): -16.3
11. Miami (9-1): -16.5
12. Georgia (7-2): -18.8
13. Army (9-0): -20.0
14. SMU (7-1): -20.5
15. Boise State (8-1): -24.2
Once again, it's very noteworthy that no one has a positive number here. No one has quite cleared the "play like a top-five team every week" bar this season. (Yes, Oregon, Résumé SP+ still sees your season-opening performance against Idaho.)