Week 2 was a return to normality as four of our six bets cashed, with the Washington Commanders being the biggest outliers in our weekly game plan. Of course, they scored seven field goals and didn't see the end zone against the Giants. Of course they did!
It felt like both our Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin plays had the right mindset, but they just didn't come to fruition. OK. Lesson learned. We're fading the Commanders this week until it feels like we can trust that offense again.
To be honest, offense is down across the board through the first two weeks. (If you haven't seen Mel Kiper Jr.'s rant about outlawing the two high-safety look, you need to check it out.) Ideally we'll get back to the offensive barrage we've come to know and love from the NFL this weekend, but either way you slice it, we've got you covered.
Thanks for checking out our Week 3 "Props that Pop." Now, let's get to the good stuff.
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-140)
Dopp: This is my favorite prop of the slate. The Bengals need to get back on track after a slow start. It seems like we say that every year, and yet here we are again. Thankfully for the sad cats, they get a weak Commanders secondary that can't stop anyone!
Even Daniel Jones had multiple TD passes against this team last week. Washington has now given up six passing scores through two games -- the most in the NFL so far this season. A full 10.3% of passes against the Commanders have gone for a score, the second-highest mark in the NFL, behind only the lowly Carolina Panthers.
Burrow is set up for a major rebound game, and it looks like he may even get Tee Higgins back for some limited action in this one. Regardless, given the lack of firepower from the Bengals' RB room, I'm expecting Burrow to find the end zone through the air on multiple occasions this week. Give me the OVER.
Sam Darnold UNDER 21.5 passing completions (-110)
Loza: The haunting of Sam Darnold appears to have been exorcized, as the Vikings QB has ripped off two straight wins while ranking seventh at the position in completion percentage over expectation (1.9%). However, he has yet to record better than 19 completions this season. I don't expect that to change in Week 3. The Texans bolstered their pass defense over the offseason and have reaped massive rewards, recording nine sacks and allowing opposing QBs to complete a stingy 57.1 percent of their passes thus far into 2024. Darnold has surprised, but with two weeks of tape at DeMeco Ryans' avail, the 27-year-old could falter. It's also likely that Kevin O' Connell leans on the run, in an attempt to keep the ball away from Houston's electric offense. Either way, Darnold's run away numbers are likely to decrease on Sunday.
Running back props
Rico Dowdle OVER 1.5 receptions (-190)
Loza: Dowdle saw his offensive snaps and total touches increase in Week 2. While he and Ezekiel Elliott shared the backfield totes nearly evenly (7 carries for Dowdle and 6 for Elliott), Dowdle was the more prolific receiver. Elliott figures to remain stubbornly in the mix against the Baltimore Ravens. However, Dowdle appears to have the edge in the passing game, as the South Carolina product converted 4 of 5 looks (RB13) against the New Orleans Saints. It's worth noting that the Ravens gave up 3 of 4 grabs to Zamir White (who is not known for his hands) last Sunday. With a spread of 1 point and in a game with a projected total of 47.5 points there should be plenty of ping-pong between the two squads, increasing Dowdle's odds of bringing in at least three catches.
Wide receiver props
George Pickens OVER 49.5 receiving yards (even)
Loza: Pat Surtain II made life difficult for Pickens and Justin Fields in Week 2. Fields targeted Pickens only four times (largely due to Surtain's tight coverage) with Pickens recording a meager two catches for 29 yards. Still, Pickens led the team in yards per reception (14.5), demonstrating his downfield athleticism. The 23-year-old figures to have an easier go of things versus the Chargers in Week 3. Admittedly, the Bolts defensive stats appear solid on paper, but the opposition has been far from tilting given that L.A. has faced the Raiders and the Panthers to open the season. Additionally, Pickens managed a 6-85-0 stat line at Atlanta in Week 1. He also averaged 57 receiving yards per game (while sharing the field with Diontae Johnson) last year. Even in Arthur Smith's conservative offense, Pickens should clear the above line. A paltry four grabs should get him to well over 50 yards on Sunday.
Field Yates cites the Rams' difficulties defending the pass as to why he likes Jauan Jennings in Week 3.
Jauan Jennings OVER 44.5 receiving yards (EVEN)
Dopp: This one is going to be a little more anecdotal than stat heavy, but the play here is pretty simple. There's no Christian McCaffrey, who has been replaced by Jordan Mason, who has done an excellent CMC impression on the ground, but not so much in the passing game. There's also no Deebo Samuel Sr., out this week due to a calf injury, and now we're getting reports from Adam Schefter that George Kittle might not be a go in this one.
With all of those injuries heading into the week, the targets should be funneled to two guys: Brandon Aiyuk and Jennings. Thankfully, Jennings will take over some of Deebo's touches while Aiyuk handles the perimeter in Week 3 against a weakened Rams team that's playing without a number of key players. The Rams might be the most beat up team in the NFL right now, which makes for the perfect time to look for a Jennings prop.
QB Brock Purdy leads the NFL in passing yards and he should be busy again this week, slicing and dicing the Rams "booty cheeks" secondary, as my co-host Field Yates said earlier this week on Fantasy Focus. I'm not over-thinking this one, as the 6-foot-3 Jennings has a number of paths to hitting this line. Give me the OVER.
Demarcus Robinson OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-110)
Dopp: Same game, different team. Robinson will be the WR1 in this Rams offense that is not only without half of their starting offensive line, but also their two best WRs in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
In 2023, Robinson showed us what he brings to the table as a starting wideout. To be fair, he was the WR3 in that offense behind Kupp and Nacua, but over a five-game stretch (Weeks 13-17), Robinson had 21 receptions on 33 targets for 319 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He ranked 14th in WR routes run and was heavily involved with Matthew Stafford, averaging 15.2 yards per catch over that span.
The only other major options in the Rams passing game this week are Tyler Johnson, Colby Parkinson and Jordan Whittington -- a 6th-round 2024 draft pick. Robinson's pedigree and chemistry with Stafford should afford him a number of opportunities, even if this team does prefer to lean on their running game a little more.
Against a tough 49ers defense, I expect game script to be in Robinson's favor here. It may not look super pretty at the end of the day, but this line is low enough to easily make a play on it. Give me the OVER.
Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (+110)
Dopp: You heard me crowing about Burrow earlier, so why not throw in a little correlation with his top wide receiver into the mix? If I'm expecting Burrow to find the end zone, I'm going to continue to default to Chase as the most likely pass catcher to come down with a touchdown.
The Bengals are averaging just 72 yards per game on the ground, third-lowest in the NFL, which means I'm all in on Burrow and Chase to fix their slow start as both of these guys can take advantage of a weak Commanders defense. Let's pair a Chase score with our banking on Burrow.