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          NFL betting: Under the radar props for Week 3

          How many receiving yards will Michael Pittman Jr. log this week? Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire
          • Seth WalderSep 19, 2024, 06:15 PM ET
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              Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

          We're betting to win.

          And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

          1. A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

          2. A less efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

          Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

          Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

          Let's dive into Week 3.

          Defensive player props

          Pete Werner (NO) under 7.5 tackles + assists (+105)

          Werner went over this line only five times in 16 games last year and once in two games this year. If he were playing more, I'd be concerned, but he's not. Werner played 87% of snaps last year and only has played 71% this year. The Eagles do run more than the average team, which works against us, but not enough to dissuade me from all the information above. I project just 5.6 tackles + assists.

          Grant Delpit (CLE) over 5.5 tackles + assists (-120)

          Delpit's tackle rates have been unimpressive during the past two games, with an average rate against the run and below average against the pass. But to throw out last season already would be a mistake, and last year Delpit had the third-highest tackle rate against the run (and the 10th-highest share when on the field among safeties). I project 6.7 tackles + assists for him.

          Myles Garrett (CLE) over 0.5 sacks (-130)

          We don't often get these opportunities to bet the top sack artists at a value price, but here we are. We're getting one of the best pass rushers in the league -- maybe the best -- as a 6.5-point favorite against Daniel Jones, who has a career 8.1% sack rate. I have the over here at -228 and I cannot imagine this -130 will last.

          The risk we're taking here is that Garrett missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday with a foot injury. If he misses the game there's no harm done, but the risk is that he plays at a reduced snap count. That's what happened a week ago, but he played 68% of snaps - not too far off his regular his usual rate (81% last year) so I'm willing to roll the dice considering the player and situation.

          See also:

          Alternate receiving yards

          Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) 60+ receiving yards (+125)

          Through two games this season, the production numbers for Pittman Jr. are disappointing but the under-the-hood numbers are very encouraging. Three numbers the model loves to see:

          • Pittman's target rate is a massive 33%, fifth highest among wide receivers.

          • His air yards per target is high at 13.6. I expect this will come down but it's still a solid sign for betting plus-money overs.

          • The Colts are targeting wide receivers 75% of the time, third most in the league.

          As a result, the model prices this alt line at -129. If you want to roll the dice it sees value at 80+ at +275, too, just less.

          Darnell Mooney (ATL) 50+ receiving yards (+185)

          If there's one spot I think this new model might have an early-season weakness, it's players whose playing time has dropped dramatically from last year to this year. This case is the inverse: Mooney is playing much more than he did last year in Chicago. In fact, among players with at least 30 routes run, Mooney ranks first -- first! -- in the percentage of his team's dropbacks he ran a route on (98%).

          The receptions haven't been there yet, but the air yards have (a massive 16.2 air yards per target) so there's a real breakout chance. I make the fair line here +125.

          See also:

          Receptions

          Rachaad White (TB) under 3.5 receptions (-130)

          I'm continuing to blindly bet running back reception unders against the heaviest man coverage teams. Running back receptions are dramatically less frequent against man coverage, and we're betting that idea is not fully baked into the betting market.Through two weeks no defense has been more man-heavy than Denver, which has run man coverage 67% of the time, per ESPN Analytics using NFL Next Gen Stats data.

          Anytime touchdowns

          Nico Collins (HOU) to score a touchdown (+130)

          Here we are again. The model just can't quit Collins, who it's bet on to score in each of the first two weeks (1-1 on him in this category). While the odds have come down (it was +150 last week), the model has also only grown stronger in its conviction on Collins' quality as a player. I previously mentioned that Collins' completed air yards per route were impressive last season, and nothing has changed there as he ranks third among wide receivers in the metric this year.

          Plus, he's playing slot a little less (12% vs. 19% last year), which the model likes to see. I trust this new model a little less than some of the others, but it has Collins' touchdown number at -127.

          QB interceptions

          Will Levis (TEN) under 0.5 interceptions (+110)

          Levis is a tough buy given the comical series of turnovers he's made in the first few weeks, but perhaps those plays presented this opportunity we don't see that often; the chance to get plus-money on an interception under for a quarterback on the favored team. Levis and the Titans are 2.5-point favorites over the Packers, who probably are starting Malik Willis again unless Jordan Love makes a sudden recovery.

          Quarterbacks for the leading team attempt fewer passes and take fewer risks, and the market is telling us that will be Levis. My model makes his under -122.

          Alternate totals

          Carolina Panthers vs Las Vegas Raiders over 38.5 (-130)

          For an over bet's purpose, the Panthers' move this weekend works wonders: The team is upgrading at quarterback by putting Andy Dalton under center, and its opponent still gets to fly past Carolina's incredibly weak defense. It's FPI+'s belief in Dalton as being worth more than a field goal (to the scoring margin) more than Young that I think is driving what it sees as a value here.

          I'm blindly trusting the FPI+ model, which is a betting translation of our traditional Football Power Index, when it says this over's fair price is -154.

          Past results

          Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.