A new week of NFL football is upon us, and the betting market is loaded with player props. My weekly betting guide features the top prop plays from this weekend's slate of games based on my projections, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Derek Carr over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100); New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Tracing back to last season, Carr has thrown at least two TDs in seven consecutive games. That includes three against the Panthers in Week 1 and two against the Cowboys last week. This streak will eventually end, but this might not be the week, with the Eagles on tap. Philadelphia surrendered two pass TDs to Jordan Love in Week 1 and Kirk Cousins on "Monday Night Football." This is a good value at even money.
Bo Nix over 30.5 passing attempts (-110); Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Nix has attempted 77 passes in two games, including 42 against Seattle and 35 against Pittsburgh. Game script has been a factor in the large attempt numbers (Denver has the fourth-highest expected pass rate in the league), but so has scheme (Denver is operating the league's eighth-most pass-heavy offense).
Script should again favor plenty of passing this week, as Denver is a road favorite against the 2-0 Buccaneers.Tampa Bay has faced a league-high 79 pass attempts, with Jayden Daniels attempting 24 (he ran the ball 16 times) and Jared Goff attempting 55.
Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-155); Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
Jackson has thrown exactly one touchdown in each of his first two games this season. He tossed more than one in eight (44%) of 18 games last season. The Cowboys allowed Derek Carr two passing touchdowns last week but held Deshaun Watson to one in the season opener. Last season, only six teams managed more than one passing touchdown against Dallas.
The price here isn't super appealing, but there's value nonetheless.
Malik Nabers under 69.5 receiving yards (-120); New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Nabers fell just short of 70 yards in his NFL debut against Minnesota (66 yards on seven targets) before exploding for 127 yards on 18 targets in an elite matchup against Washington in Week 2. Life will be tougher this week against an elite Cleveland defense that held CeeDee Lamb to 61 yards and has allowed only one WR to record 69 yards this season (Brian Thomas Jr.).
Cleveland returned a majority of its 2023 defense, which allowed only eight wideouts to reach 70 yards in 18 games.
Miles Sanders over 6.5 rushing attempts (+100); Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders
Sanders has hovered around this line thus far, carrying the ball five times in Week 1 and seven times in Week 2. Those numbers are low for a player handling 36% of his team's designed runs, and the reason is game script: Incredibly, the Panthers have trailed on the scoreboard on 100% of their 101 offensive snaps. They've trailed by 15-plus points on 81 (80%) of those snaps. Though Andy Dalton replacing Bryce Young won't solve all of the Panthers' woes, it should make them more competitive and allow more rushing, especially considering they've called a run-first offense thus far.
Through two games, three RBs have reached 10 carries against the Raiders (Derrick Henry 18, Gus Edwards 11, J.K. Dobbins 10). If Sanders again handles 30-40% of the Panthers' rush attempts, expect him to be closer to 9 to 10 carries in this game.
Kyzir White over 7.5 tackles (+115); Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions
White recorded 11 tackles on 100% of the defensive snaps in the Cardinals' Week 1 loss to Buffalo before sliding to seven tackles in their dominant win over the Rams in Week 2. White rested late in that game (85% snap share), so there's a good chance he would've added an extra tackle or two in a full game. White was a full-time player in 10 games last season and reached 8.0 tackles in six of those outings, averaging 8.7 per game along the way.
Fellow off-ball LBs SirVocea Dennis, Christian Rozeboom and Troy Reeder each reached 8.0 tackles against Detroit this season.