Welcome to Week 6! It might feel like this slate is just Commanders-Ravens and then whatever else RedZone has on, but hear me out. Bears-Jaguars could be fun, Lions-Cowboys should have lots of points, and two rookie quarterbacks in Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler making their debuts? C'mon now!
I touch on almost every game of the slate in this week's column (sorry, Steelers and Raiders fans). But I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each -- and a few more lines and props I'm targeting that you'll find at the bottom of the page.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Week 5 recap | Bears-Jaguars | Commanders-Ravens | Texans-Patriots | Quick hits and SGP
Week 5 recap
Another positive week, though a small one. We're digging our way out.
Tough to watch Patrick Mahomes dice up the New Orleans Saints' zone-heavy approach all of Monday night. It was the 12th-most zone coverage Dennis Allen has called in a game since 2016. Why that was the approach against a team with no wide receivers, I'll never know.
Week 5: 6-5 (+0.89 units)
Overall: 23-30 (-5.04u)
Spread: 3-6 (-3.19u)
Total: 6-5 (+0.30u)
Props: 14-14 (-1.15u)
Same-game parlay: 0-5 (-1.0u)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 44.5)
Another London game -- always such a fun treat (as long as the subsequent SNF game isn't delayed by thunderstorms and I have to stay up past my bedtime).
It's always tough to handicap the effect of pond-jumping, and I largely try to stay away from London games as a result. Somehow, this will be the Jaguars' 12th game already in London. They're 6-5 against the spread and 6-5 outright in London, with their games going 5-6 to the over. Right down the middle.
What is notable is that the Jaguars are leaving on Thursday, while the Bears (who have played in London three times before, though one of those games was in 1986) left on Monday and touched down on Tuesday. They're allowing for almost an entire week for their body clock to settle, which is an encouraging approach.
I've been big on the Bears in this column through the first five weeks of the season, and the arrow is pointing up in Chicago. Consecutive home stays against the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers displayed the suffocating nature of this defense and provided the offense for a nice on-ramp for improvement. Offensive success rate has climbed in each of the past four weeks, and that climb has largely been the result of an improved passing offense. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has had a success rate over 50% in each of the past two weeks.
Yes, Williams got the Rams' and Panthers' defenses in the past two weeks, two of the worst defenses in the league. But the Jaguars' defense might be yet be another cupcake of which Williams can take advantage. The Jaguars are the worst defense by EPA in the entire league, save for the Cincinnati Bengals. Jacksonville is a little bit better by success rate (still bottom 10), but it's terrible EPA number is the result of yielding explosive plays. The Jaguars have allowed 34 explosive passes on the season, second only to the Baltimore Ravens. They play a ton of aggressive man coverage (fourth-highest rate in the league), but they don't play it well in the absence of CB Tyson Campbell, who hasn't played since Week 1 and is not expected to go in Week 6.
The Jaguars' coverage approach is where I like my prop for the game: D'Andre Swift to have over 19.5 receiving yards. Jacksonville has struggled mightily with backs catching passes. De'Von Achane had seven grabs for 76 yards, James Cook had four for 48, Dare Ogunbowale had four for 47 and last week Trey Sermon had six snags for 25 yards. Teams that trust their backs to win against the Jaguars' linebackers in space will scheme up targets for those backs, and screens can particularly pop off against man-coverage teams that don't see them developing. The Bears have made the screen game to Swift a big focus of their designed passing game, and Williams has shown a willingness to check down to Swift against linebackers. Swift's .25 targets per route run against man coverage this season ties DJ Moore for the Bears' best.
The bet: D'Andre Swift 20+ receiving yards (-115)
Even if the passing game doesn't run through Swift, the Chicago wideouts should have a talent advantage against the Campbell-less Jaguars. I'm confident in the film and data on Williams and this Bears' passing offense, especially as the offensive side of the ball, is fairly healthy for Chicago. They should continue to score enough to win the games their defense controls.
Will this be another one of those games? We finally saw a strong performance from the Jaguars' offense last Sunday. Jacksonville dropped 37 points on the Indianapolis Colts, Trevor Lawrence was barely pressured and Tank Bigsby and Brian Thomas Jr. continued building on their respective breakout campaigns. While I still harbor some Jags optimism and believe they're a better team than their 1-4 record indicates, I'm highly suspicious of all offensive results against Gus Bradley's Colts defense, especially with the injuries that unit has accrued. The Jaguars produced 3.08 points per drive after never reaching 2.00 points per drive in their previous four games, but their 44.1% success rate was barely above their average for the season and they continued to struggle on third downs (3-for-10), which has been their Achilles' heel.
All of the Jaguars' ills were not magically cured in one week, and the Bears will not allow Lawrence to go as dramatically unpressured as he was in Week 5, so I expect more mistakes from the Jaguars' offense. I'm taking the Bears -1.5, which is about as low as I expect this line to get.
The bet: Bears -1.5
Consider: Jacksonville's best bet for offensive success against the Bears is hitting the big plays. That has been the only saving grace of the Jaguars' offense and the only weak point of the Chicago defense. The Bears are surrendering an explosive play on 14.4% of their snaps, the worst rate in all of football. Some of that is the stretch of opponents they've faced -- the Houston Texans, Colts and Rams are all among the league's best offenses in creating explosives -- but some of it is structural. The Bears play with very deep safeties and give up lots of intermediate passing windows. I'm not taking the over in this game, as my faith in this Bears defense is consummate, but we might be in for some fireworks early Sunday morning.
It's also worth noting that starting CB Tyrique Stevenson popped up late on the Thursday injury report with a calf injury he sustained during practice -- he's now doubtful for this game. This is a big deal: Stevenson sees a lot of targets as teams avoid Bears CB1 Jaylon Johnson, and that CB2 spot will now be under even heavier fire as Stevenson's expected backup, Terell Smith, didn't make the trip to the U.K. with a hip injury. Jaylon Jones will start in place of Stevenson, and the Bears secondary is now missing multiple starters given Jaquan Brisker's absence.
I still like the Bears against the spread in this one given their offensive improvement and the strong pass rush in Chicago, but I do think the potential for a rare London over has indeed increased.
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 51.5)
Through five weeks of the season, this has to be the most interesting line for a game yet. Nobody has been hotter over the past few weeks than the Commanders, who have scored 38, 42, and 34 in their last three contests -- all wins. Their point differential over the last two weeks is +49. Healthy stuff.
If anyone has been hotter, it has been the Ravens, who have put up totals of 28, 35 and 41 points in the past three weeks. Baltimore is a whopping 6.5-point favorite over the Commanders, but just a half-point more than the 4-1 Houston Texans are favored over the 1-4 New England Patriots in rookie Drake Maye's first start. I thought for sure that this line would get hammered with Commanders money -- and, when we get closer to the weekend and the public starts placing Sunday bets, I wouldn't be surprised to see some line movement toward Washington. But so far, it has held steady at 6.5.
Why does Vegas doubt the Commanders so? Well, entering last week's game against the Cleveland Browns, the Commanders were suffering from a serious case of "Ain't Played Nobody." The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (23rd), New York Giants (22nd), Bengals (31st) and Arizona Cardinals (32nd) are all league cellar-dwellers as measured by defensive success rate. But Cleveland? The Browns were one of the best defenses in football last year, and they're still a top-10 unit this season. Cleveland would surely post a real test.
Then the Commanders dropped 34 on the Browns. But when you get elbow-deep into the performance, it wasn't as dominant as it looked. This was actually the Commanders' worst offensive performance by success rate all season, remarkably even lower than their loss to the Buccaneers in the opener. Their 34 points were produced on 12 drives for 2.83 points per drive -- a fine offensive outing, but nothing like the 4.7 points per drive they produced in Weeks 3 and 4.
While the Commanders' down-to-down success was rather herky-jerky, their explosive plays came in the clutch against the Browns. Washington had five explosive completions, including an unbelievable 66-yard rainbow from Jayden Daniels on the move, and another five explosive runs, including -- you guessed it -- an equally unbelievable 34-yard scamper from Daniels on fourth-and-3 after he dusted an unblocked blitzer in the pocket. Kid's pretty good.
OMGGGGGGG
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 6, 2024
📺 #CLEvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/8RHOEseQVy
They're going to need the kid to keep being pretty good this week. The Ravens have one of the best run defenses in football, but they are particularly susceptible through the air. In fact, no defense has given up a greater percentage of explosive passes than Baltimore's, which is giving up a big gain on 17.8% of dropbacks this year. The Ravens' defense accordingly leads the league in dropback rate over expectation; when adjusting for game context like down and distance and score differential, the Ravens see more pass attempts than any other defense in football.
This game is going to get dropped into Daniels' hands, and he's going to need to beat Baltimore through the air. Yes, he'll be able to scramble occasionally, but it's unlikely he'll be given the space other defenses have afforded him. Since 2022, when Baltimore first started running the Mike Macdonald defense, the Ravens have given up more than 50 rushing yards to a quarterback just once. That came in Week 4 of the 2022 season when Josh Allen put 70 on them.
The Ravens' defense has allowed only three scrambles all season, partially because of a smart and complimentary pass rush and partially because of a pass defense that is so gettable. Of course, Baltimore's defense has the unique advantage of never facing the best rushing quarterback in football, because Baltimore's offense happens to employ that guy, but I'm still confident it's a good group against the QB run. The defensive personnel spends all that time dealing with Lamar Jackson in training camp, and the coaching staff has seen years' worth of schematic wrinkles to challenge a mobile quarterback. That, plus the weakness being Baltimore's secondary, has me taking the under on Daniels' rushing yards in this one.
The bet: Jayden Daniels UNDER 49.5 rushing yards (-120)
I really would like to take Baltimore at a lower number, but I know how bad the Ravens can be at handling a lead, and the fact that there is so much potential for explosive gains in this game has me terrified of a backdoor cover. Laying 6.5 is too rich for my blood (though I love Baltimore as a teaser leg), so I'm going to take the under on Washington points at 21.5.
Again, it's a scary bet when we're expecting explosive plays. But the Commanders don't actually have that high of an explosive pass rate (they're right around league average at 13%). When they hit, they hit big, but it's unlikely that Daniels continues to connect on downfield throws at this towering rate. His +12.3 completion percentage over expectation on throws of 15+ air yards is second in the league. That's going to regress to the mean at some point, especially when his only remarkable pass-catcher downfield is Terry McLaurin.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens should have their way on the ground against Dan Quinn's defense. Washington is bottom five in both success rate and explosive runs surrendered against designed runs. In particular, their aggressive four-down front has struggled against rushing attacks that deploy tight ends, fullbacks, pullers and tons of misdirection. I expect Baltimore to run a very similar game plan to that with which they easily dusted the Buffalo Bills. (Washington averages the fourth-fewest defenders in the box against the run, lower even than Buffalo.)
I think Baltimore wins the time of possession battle comfortably and gets the Commanders on a trailing script that they haven't had to endure since Week 1. Every backdoor out is terrifying to me, and I'm fully ready for a heartbreaking loss in garbage time. So, we look to the alternative.
The bet: Commanders UNDER 21.5 team total points (-110)
Houston Texans (-6.5, 37.5) at New England Patriots
Last week, I buried a Patriots under at the bottom of the column. This week, I'm featuring it. It's the debut of Drake Maye! No matter how stinky this game is, you know that Scott Hanson is going to feature it more than a few times (it helps that C.J. Stroud is the opposing quarterback, too).
I'm sprinting to the under here, which was at 38.5 earlier in the week but is down to 37.5. I would take this no lower than 36, but it's still a strong position for me this week.
The bet: UNDER 37.5 total points (-105)
Let's start on the side of the Texans offense, which has received minimal attention this week given the news from New England. Houston won't have Nico Collins, the current league leader in receiving yards, after he was sent to short-term IR with a hamstring injury, so he's out for at least four games. Short term, it hurts, but it's a great long-term decision. The 4-1 Texans will certainly be in the AFC playoff picture, and getting more October production out of Collins is not worth risking his health for when December and January roll around.
Collins has been more than just the NFL's leading receiver; he has been the saving grace of a Houston offense that has been far from perfect. The Texans scored only 23 points last week against the Bills, six of which came on one towering throw to Collins, and 24 the week prior against a Jaguars team that had just allowed 47 points to Buffalo (and gave up 34 to the Joe Flacco-led Colts last week). They scored only 19 points in a win over the Bears, their lone touchdown coming on a deep Collins catch, and had just one TD in Minnesota. Even if you want to argue that the Texans have faced a tough run of defenses -- and you'd have a case -- the Patriots' defense should still be good enough to give them similar struggles.
I don't think I can overstate how integral Collins has been to his passing offense. He has only 24.2% of Stroud's targets (20th in the league) but 39.6% of Stroud's air yards (14th) and 38.4% of his total passing yards, second only to Justin Jefferson. Collins is so integral because he is the big-play maker. Stroud leads the league in explosive pass rate, hitting a big completion on a whopping 18.3% of his attempts. Of Stroud's 38 big passes, Collins has seen 17. The next closest is Stefon Diggs with eight.
Collins' ability to hit the home run is critical because the Texans are so bad on early downs right now. They constantly have to dig themselves out of third-and-longs, and, accordingly, it's hard for them to string together long scoring drives. They need a big play (or two) to shorten drives. On first and second down, the Texans are second-worst in both success rate and EPA per play -- only the Raiders and Browns are worse, respectively. Think about the company they're keeping! The Texans need, on average, 8.8 yards on third down to get to the marker. Again, only the Browns are worse.
That's dreadful stuff. And without Collins to bail them out with a 20-yard reception (or two, or three, and here's a 40-yard one for good measure), I think they will find little relief against New England. The Patriots' defense doesn't look that spooky on advanced metrics right now, but consider what we've learned about their early-season opponents: the Bengals and the Seattle Seahawks are two of the best passing games in football, and New England held both in check.
I think it's a long day for Houston on offense, even if running back Joe Mixon, who has been absent for almost a month now, does return against New England. And I'm sure the Patriots will do their part to contribute to the under, as Maye will be starting for the first time behind one of the worst pass-protecting lines in all of football and facing a Texans team that currently leads the league in pressure rate. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans has become a more avid blitzer with time, and I'm expecting a lot of uberaggressive looks at the line of scrimmage for Maye to decipher.
I liked Maye coming out of college, and I largely think getting these 12 upcoming games of experience will be good for him. I don't even think his early-season status of QB2 means all that much. It seems that coach Jerod Mayo wanted to start Jacoby Brissett and give Maye a more gradual on-ramp, no matter what. But for as much as I liked the prospect, Maye was a big-play hunter in college who was willing to invite pressure and take shots against the blitz. In Game 1 against this Texans defense, I think that will end up leading to sacks and incompletions far more often than it produces big gains, so look for plenty of three-and-outs and punts. The Patriots' offense will not be suddenly healed, though I do expect some impassioned effort around the rookie.
I am, however, going to take Maye's rushing yards as my prop for this game. Maye isn't known as the runner Washington's Jayden Daniels is, but he's plenty athletic and has already displayed a willingness to tuck and run. Maye had two scrambles for 12 yards on just 12 dropbacks in relief of Brissett against the New York Jets in Week 3. In three preseason games, Maye had 32 yards on seven carries, with a long rush of 17 yards. I bet we see a couple of designed runs, and even if we're below this number late, I could see some heavy garbage time scrambling from Maye as he tries to execute his first two-minute drill.
The bet: Drake Maye 25+ rushing yards (-120)
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
Rico Dowdle UNDER 63.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)
Dowdle has taken control of the Dallas Cowboys backfield recently, delivering on the increased touches with strong runs and a couple of explosive catches. But now he catches a Detroit Lions defense that is notoriously tough to run against and also funnels targets away from backs by allowing opposing quarterbacks to challenge one-on-ones on the outside. A bad matchup, along with the lurking potential for a return to committee usage, makes this an under spot.
Denver Broncos +3 (-115) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I imagine this line is supposed to reflect a healthier Chargers team coming out of their bye week. They hope to get both offensive tackles back this week (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater), along with defensive end Joey Bosa and starting linebacker Junior Colson. Quarterback Justin Herbert, who played in Week 4 at less than 100 percent, should also be nearer to full strength.
But are we sure the Chargers, even if they are healthy, are good enough to be favored on the road in Denver? By success rate and EPA per play, these are two of the worst offenses and two of the best defenses in football, but the Broncos have faced a tougher schedule to this point in the season and have a bigger home-field advantage than most when playing at their infamous elevation. The Chargers haven't won in Denver since 2018, and I don't think they're equipped to break the streak this year.
Calvin Ridley OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
As always, I'm fading the Colts against receivers who line up on the outside and get a ton of air yards. We were on Brian Thomas Jr. here last week, and we're back with Ridley, who is averaging a jaw-dropping 18.74 air yards per target. He has largely been a low-volume field-stretcher, which is not what the Tennessee Titans paid for, and coach Brian Callahan acknowledged that this past week. I expect a good dose of Ridley targets, both in the quick game and in isolation downfield.
New Orleans Saints UNDER 18.5 total points (-110)
Listen, I love the Spencer Rattler roller coaster as much as the next guy. The kid can absolutely make some throws. But getting Todd Bowles as his first draw is a tough ask. Bowles runs a very complex defense that will send pressure at you from a ton of different places. That Saints offensive line is also woefully outmatched. Ever since Erik McCoy went out, the brakes were slammed on their running game. McCoy, Cesar Ruiz and Lucas Patrick should all be missing from the interior in this game. Meanwhile, the Bucs are getting defensive tackle Calijah Kancey back for the first time this season. Expect the Bucs to dominate in the trenches and the Saints rookie QB to struggle under the pressure.
SGP: Eagles ML, Browns-Eagles OVER 42.5, Elijah Moore 30+ receiving yards, A.J. Brown 70+ receiving yards (+550)
I have next to no faith in the Browns' offense, but this Philadelphia Eagles passing defense is gettable by just about anyone. They're particularly bad in the slot, where rookie corner Cooper DeJean might be getting the start now that he has gotten up to speed on the defense. I like Moore, who runs the most slot routes on the Browns, to test the rookie, and I love big Brown numbers whenever the Eagles get a single-high defense that will let Brown test one-on-one coverage.